Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jun. 12, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Bulletin: A letter from Dr. Philip Yang

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Dear TSR readers,

Six weeks ago, I gave up my tenure position in the National Taiwan University, accepting an appointment to lead the Government Information Office of Taiwan. This sudden decision surprised many readers, but for me, accepting this appointment was answering a call to serve Taiwan and living up to my beliefs, the beliefs that only informed debates can improve policy-making. Since 2008, Taiwan has made significant progresses in many policy areas; however, the government's sometimes ineffective communication has led to misunderstanding about these policies and hindered helpful policy debates. Instead of standing idle and letting misguided debates derail ongoing economic improvements and cross-strait stability, I chose to assume the responsibility of improving the government's communication with the society, even though that means giving up my tenure position in the prestigious National Taiwan University. My only regret is that I am again away from serving TSR readers, but I beg readers' kind understanding and forgiveness.

Sincerely yours,

Philip Yang

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South China Sea Dispute Heats Up

Crowed Waters By Abraham M. Denmark(Foreign Policy, Jun. 7, 2011) A disastrous Southeast Asian arms race is not inevitable. The United States should encourage the rise of new naval powers that can help maintain their own independence, provided they do not limit freedom of navigation or threaten regional stability.

China’s Troubled Neighbors By Philip Bowring(IHT, Jun. 8, 2011) China’s emergence has upset the status quo. Beijing’s actions, be they conciliatory or aggressive, will set the tone for the future, and hence the relationships between the United States and the other nations of the region.

Fight or Flight in the South China Sea By David Brown(Asia Times, Jun. 9, 2011) Washington ought to stand tough vis-a-vis China's hawks, putting Beijing privately on notice that provocative actions can only result in uniting other claimants, drawing the US further into the conflict.

China Tells Nations to Stop Spratly Oil Searches
(AP, Jun. 10, 2011) China warned Asian neighbors to stop searching for oil near the disputed Spratly Islands and vowed to assert its sovereignty over the potentially petroleum-rich territory in the South China Sea despite rival claims.

Dispute between Vietnam and China Escalates Over Competing Claims in South China Sea (AP, Jun. 11, 2011) Vietnam said that it would conduct live-fire naval exercises off its coast next week, a step that escalated a long-running dispute with China over territory in the South China Sea that both nations claim.

Hanoi Welcomes Assistance As Sea Dispute Heats Up
(Reuters, Jun. 12, 2011) Vietnam said live-fire naval drills scheduled for tomorrow were “routine” and said it would welcome efforts by the international community, including the US, to help resolve disputes in the South China Sea.

Cross-Strait Issues

SEF and ARATS Review Previous Talks in Taipei
(Taipei Times, Jun. 9, 2011) Delegates from the SEF and the ARATS met in Taipei to examine 15 cross-strait agreements and attempt to forge a consensus on disagreements before the seventh round of cross-strait talks next year.

DPP to Seek Dialogue with China: Party Head
(CNA, Jun. 11, 2011) The chairwoman of Taiwan's opposition DPP said in England that the party will adopt a more proactive attitude in conducting dialogue with China but will never accept the “one China” principle.

Hu Jintao Eager for Taiwan Legacy
(Taipei Times, Jun. 12, 2011) The cable, issued by the US embassy in Beijing on Feb. 27, 2009, showed that the US has learned from at least two sources that Hu believes that his Taiwan policy, and not China’s Scientific Development Concept, should be his primary political legacy.

U.S.-China Engagement

Kissinger’s Book a Warning to China, US By Kelly Chung Dawson, Yan Yiqi and Lin Jing (China Daily, Jun. 11, 2011) If there is something to offer a clue of how the world's two largest economies should handle their relations, former United States secretary of state Henry Kissinger's new book, On China, is that thing, Chinese and Western critics said.

Taiwan’s Future Depends on US-China Ties By William Lowther(Taipei Times, Jun. 11, 2011) Former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has said the future of Taiwan will ultimately depend on the “grand relationship” between China and the US.

When Will China Become a Global Superpower? By Thair Shaikh(CNN, Jun. 10, 2011) Lawrence Saez, senior lecturer at the School of Oriental and African Studies, in London, says: "When China decides to take over Taiwan, that is when it will be a superpower. Unquestionably that will be the day."

PLA and Arms Sales

China Admits ‘Secret’ Aircraft Carrier Is Nearly Ready for Launch
(The Guardian, Jun. 8, 2011) China has moved a step closer to launching its first aircraft carrier with senior generals in the People's Liberation Army finally confirming one of the world's worst kept military secrets.

U.S. May Announce F-16 Upgrade Deal with Taiwan Soon: Defense News (CNA, Jun. 6, 2011) The United States may allow its contractors to upgrade Taiwan's existing F-16 A/B jet fighters later this year or in 2012, according to a report carried in the latest issue of Defense News.

Pressure Builds for Sale of F-16 Jets to Taiwan By Bill Gertz(Washington Times, Jun. 7, 2011) Congress is stepping up pressure on the Obama administration to sell more F-16 jet fighters to Taiwan as the island’s air defenses deteriorate and China’s air power grows.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

AmCham Warns of Over-reliance on Trade with China
(Taipei Times, Jun. 9, 2011) Taiwan should adopt a balanced development strategy and avoid overly relying on a single market to drive its export-oriented economy on the world stage, the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Taipei said.

China's Rise and Domestic Issues

China Model Unfinished without Social Solutions
(Global Times, Jun. 6, 2011) With China now the world's second largest economy, is conflict with the US inevitable? Will social issues hold China back from claiming the top spot? Global Times talked to Cheng Li , research director of the John L.Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, on these issues.

China Rejects Google’s Hacking Charge
(New York Times, Jun. 7, 2011) China’s official Communist Party newspaper issued a caustic response on Monday to Google’s charge that Chinese hackers had taken aim at influential users of its Gmail service, calling the accusations “political gaming”.

China Surpasses U.S. As World’s Biggest Energy Consumer
(Fox, Jun. 8, 2011) China surpassed the U.S. last year as the world’s largest energy consumer, according to an annual report by British oil giant BP.

China’s New Independents Tap Social Media to Challenge Communist Party By Peter Ford (Christian Science Monitor, Jun. 8, 2011) As local government elections get underway nationwide in China, a new breed of independent would-be politician is emerging to challenge the ruling Communist party’s near total stranglehold on political power.

China Appears to Be Moving to Halt Grass-Roots Candidates By Michael Wines (New York Times, Jun. 10, 2011) The Chinese authorities appear to be restricting attempts by a handful of citizens to run in local legislative elections as self-proclaimed independent candidates.

Ethnic Protests in China Have Lengthy Roots By Andrew Jacobs(New York Times, Jun. 11, 2011) The ethnic Mongolian protests that have swept a number of cities in recent weeks are a sobering reminder that government largess, assimilation or an iron fist cannot entirely extinguish the yearnings of some of China’s 55 ethnic minorities.

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Regards,

Dalton LinEditor, Taiwan Security Research
E-mail: daltonlin@ntu.edu.tw, Taiwan Security Research: taiwansecurity.org