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Sunday, 8 July 2012


China's Leadership Succession

Is China Scared of a Coup? By Peter Mattis(The Diplomat, Jul. 4, 2012) The PLA loyalty drumbeat suggests this is a real concern. Continuation probably should be taken as sign of growing instability within the leadership and an end to the current possibilities of internal CCP reforms.
Chinese Police Officials Linked to Target in Chongqing Scandal Are Arrested (New York Times, Jul. 7, 2012) Central investigators have detained at least two senior police officials with close ties to Wang Lijun, in a sign that the inquiry into Mr. Wang could be reaching a critical phase.
Sino-Philippine Standoff in South China Sea
China Paper Accuses Manila Over S. China Sea “Plot”
(Reuters, Jul. 2, 2012) China’s top newspaper accused the Philippines of orchestrating a plot to deliberately stir up tensions over the disputed South China Sea, and warned that Beijing’s patience should not be mistaken for weakness.
China’s Hawks in Command By Willy Lam(Wall Street Journal, Jul. 1, 2012) The Chinese Communist Party has begun to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy over the past few years. A key factor that has so far been overlooked is the unprecedented influence of People's Liberation Army generals in the formulation of foreign policy.
U.S. "Pivot" and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Clinton Makes Effort to Rechannel the Rivalry with China By Jane Perlez (New York Times, Jul. 8, 2012) The extra attention devoted to economics is intended to send a message that Washington recognizes that it initially overemphasized the military component of its new focus on Asia, setting up more of a confrontation with China than some countries felt comfortable with.
Booming Southeast Asia in a Quandary Over U.S.-China Rivalry By Martin Petty (Reuters, Jul. 8, 2012) A U.S.-China tug-of-war over Southeast Asian influence is proving to be a critical test for Washington’s “pivot” East as Beijing strengthens its economic and military clout in its own backyard.

Diaoyutai Disputes Reemerge

Taiwanese Vessel Returns Following Standoff with Japan near Tiaoyutais (China Post, Jul. 5, 2012) A Taiwanese fishing boat, with some activists aboard, returned to Taiwan after a 30-minute standoff with Japanese coast guard ships in disputed Tiaoyutai waters, the Coast Guard Administration said.
Now It Is Taiwan That Is Taking a Hard-line Stance on Senkaku Issue By Takio Murakami (Asahi Shimbun, Jul. 5, 2012) Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara's inflammatory proposal to purchase four of the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea has now got Taiwan riled.
Taiwan Will Not Cooperate with China in Tiaoyutai Row: Yang
(China Post, Jul. 7, 2012) Taiwan's foreign minister stressed that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will not join hands in resolving the sovereignty dispute over the Tiaoyutais.
No Concessions on Diaoyutai’s Sovereignty, Ma Says
(Taipei Times, Jul. 8, 2012) Ma’s comments came as Japan’s prime minister confirmed a report that the Japanese government was considering buying the disputed islands.
China Dismisses Japan Plan to Buy Disputed Islands
(Reuters, Jul. 8, 2012) China’s Foreign Ministry said it would continue to take “necessary measures” to safeguard its sovereignty over a number of disputed island in the East China Sea after Japan said it was considering a plan to “buy” them from private landowners.
PLA，Military Balance and Arms Sales

Is the PLA a Paper Dragon? By Michael Auslin(Wall Street Journal, Jul. 2, 2012) Though the PLA may not be the equivalent of the U.S. military anytime soon (if ever), Beijing's military buildup isn't just to challenge U.S. dominance.
Is China’s Space Push Worth It? By Bob Davis(China Real Time Report, Jul. 4, 2012) If China goes on to repeat the moon landing mission 60 or so years after the original, it would prove what? To my mind, it would represent a poverty of imagination, not riches.
Lungtan Center Looks into Space
(Taipei Times, Jul. 2, 2012) CSIST officials said technologies used in the AMS-02 construction can be applied to the development of missiles, other weapons systems and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Classified Charts Go Missing from Missile Boats
(China Post, Jul. 7, 2012) Two classified nautical charts were found to be missing from locally built missile boats that were decommissioned earlier this month, military sources were quoted as saying.
Taiwan, US Agree to US$3.8 Bil. Upgrade of Existing F-16A/Bs
(China Post, Jul. 3, 2012) Taiwan's military has accepted the United States' offer of a US$3.8 billion upgrade package for the country's existing F-16A/B fighter jets after concluding a review on the deal recently, sources told the Chinese-language United Evening News.
U.S. Beef Row, Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Turning Beef Issue into Opportunity By Peng Tso-kwei(Taipei Times, Jul. 5, 2012) Relaxing restrictions on US beef imports will cause many problems for Taiwan’s agriculture. Notably, the US beef issue is tied up with prospects for the TIFA and an FTA. Apart from beef, such agreements may also require Taiwan to lift restrictions on related imports of pork, rice and other products.
DPP OKs Ban Lift, but on Six Conditions
(China Post, Jul. 7, 2012) The Democratic Progressive Party legislative caucus said that they can accept the conditional easing of Taiwan's zero-tolerance policy against ractopamine — on six conditions.
President Ma Ying-jeou’s Popularity Plunges to New Low, TVBS Poll Shows (AFP, Jul. 6, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou’s popularity has plunged to its lowest level yet, a poll showed, amid a bribery scandal involving a top official who had been a key confidant.
Taiwan in the TPP Is Just a Mirage By Tu Jenn-hwa(Taipei Times, Jul. 3, 2012) Compared to the hard work South Korea and other advanced countries have put in to securing free trade, Taiwan’s flippant attitude toward signing FTAs has caused it to be overlooked and derided by many countries.
Economic Policy Requires Focus By Tung Chen-yuan(Taipei Times, Jul. 5, 2012) In the face of fierce competitive pressure caused by rapid regional economic integration, it makes most sense for the nation to concentrate its efforts on negotiations with China and the US, prioritizing the signing of FTAs with those two countries.
Taiwan Eyes Mutual Recognition Pacts with US, Japan
(CNA, Jul. 3, 2012) Taiwan will discuss the possibility of signing a mutual recognition agreement (MRA) with the United States to boost merchandise exports after major trade pact talks resume, trade officials said.
Taiwan, South Korea Begin Talks on Investment Protection Pact: Official (China Post, Jul. 6, 2012) An official from the Ministry of Economic Affairs confirmed that Taiwan has begun talks with South Korea over a treaty designed to protect private investments.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
China Takes a Big Step to Make the Yuan a Rival to the Dollar By Michael Schuman (Time, Jul. 2, 2012) Beijing is again turning to Shenzhen for a new batch of trials with capitalism by dusting off that old idea of the SEZ and repurposing it. The consequences could prove just as sweeping for both China and the world.
China’s Yuan Experiment Faces Risks, Legacy By Kevin Yao(Reuters, Jul. 6, 2012) China’s plan to test yuan convertibility in a new service hub being built near Hong Kong carries risk that will make the country’s policymakers move slowly.
China Seeks Oil-Pricing Power By James T. Areddy(China Real Time Report, Jul. 2, 2012) China’s commodity futures markets still have limits. To protect Beijing’s ability to control its currency, China’s futures markets are virtually closed to outsiders and its domestic traders don’t have easy access to international markets.
Planned China Metals Plant Scrapped
(Wall Street Journal, Jul. 3, 2012) Leaders in a southwestern Chinese city pledged to scrap a planned metals plant as protests widened following violent clashes with police, in a case that has generated deep environmental and political concern among the Chinese public.
Protests and China’s Party Cadre Problem By Russell Leigh Moses(China Real Time Report, Jul. 5, 2012) A larger problem for cadres is not only the odd disquiet on the streets. It’s the dissonant noises that many of them are hearing from Beijing.
Regional Issues and Japan Policy
South Korea Fires Top Presidential Aide Over Pact with Japan
(New York Times, Jul. 6, 2012) A top national security aide resigned under pressure, as the government of President Lee Myung-bak struggled to extricate itself from the political debacle it created by trying to enhance military cooperation with Japan.
S. Korea-Japan Military Pact Can Create Leverage against China: Researcher (Yonhap News, Jul. 8, 2012) South Korea should push ahead with a military pact with Japan to gain diplomatic leverage against China's foreign policy that is lopsided toward North Korea, a researcher said.
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