When it comes to U.S. policy toward Iran,
irony is the name of the game. Where to begin? The increasingly fierce
sanctions that the Obama administration is seeking to impose on that
country’s oil business will undoubtedly cause further problems for its
economy and
further pain
to ordinary Iranians. But they are likely to be splendid news for a
few other countries that Washington might not be quite so eager to
favor.
Take China, which already buys 22% of Iran’s oil. With its
energy-ravenous economy, it is likely, in the long run, to buy more, not
less Iranian oil, and -- thanks to the new sanctions -- at what might
turn out to be
bargain basement prices. Or consider Russia once the Eurozone is without Iranian oil. That giant energy producer is likely to find itself with a
larger market share of European energy needs at higher prices. The Saudis, who
want high oil prices to fund an expensive payoff to their people to avoid an Arab Spring, are likely to be delighted. And
Iraq,
with its porous border, its thriving black market in Iranian oil, and
its Shiite government in Baghdad, will be pleased to help Iran avoid
sanctions. (And thank you, America, for that invasion!)
Who may suffer, other than Iranians? In the long run, the
shaky economies of Italy, Greece, and Spain, long dependent on Iranian oil, potentially raising
further problems for an already roiling Eurozone. And don’t forget the U.S. economy, or your own pocketbook, if gas prices
go up, or even President Obama, if his bet on oil sanctions turns out to be an economic disaster in an election year.
In other words,
once again
Washington's (and Tel Aviv's) carefully calculated plans for Iran may
go seriously, painfully awry. Now, in all honesty, wouldn’t you call
that Kafkaesque? Or perhaps that’s a question for the Pentagon where,
it turns out, Kafka is in residence. I’m talking, of course, about
Lieutenant Commander Mike Kafka. He’s a spokesman for the Navy’s Fleet
Forces Command -- believe me, you can’t make this stuff up -- and just
the other day he was over at the old five-sided
castle being
relatively close-mouthed
about the retrofitting of a Navy amphibious transport docking ship as a
special operations “mothership” (a term until now reserved for sci-fi
novels and
Somali pirates).
It’s soon to be dispatched to somewhere in or near the Persian Gulf to
be a floating base for Navy SEAL covert actions of unspecified sorts,
guaranteed
not to bring down the price of oil.
Certainly, the dispatch of that ship in July will only ratchet up
tensions in the Gulf, a place that already, according to Michael Klare,
TomDispatch regular and author of the upcoming book
The Race for What’s Left: The Global Scramble for the World’s Last Resources, is the most potentially explosive spot on the planet.
Tom
