This is FREE intelligence for distribution. Forward this to your colleagues.
Halting Syrian Chaos
What if Syrian President Bashar al Assad really goes? There is an
assumption in the West that the way to win a strategic victory over Iran
and improve the human rights situation inside Syria is to remove the
Syrian leader. It is true that Iran's prospects of keeping Syria as its
own Mediterranean outpost are probably linked with the survivability of
al Assad's regime. But his removal might well hasten the slide into
chaos within Syria and in adjacent Lebanon, rather than slow it. Al
Assad's departure could even ignite a disintegration of the Syrian power
structure into various gangs and militias.
After all, we are talking less of the removal of one man than of the end of a 42-year dynasty. The president's father, Hafez al Assad, came to power in 1970 after 21 changes of government -- mostly through coups -- in Syria's first 24 years of independence. Moreover, the new Syrian state held free and fair elections in 1947, 1949 and 1954 that all broke down according to tribal, regional and sectarian interests. Hafez finally ended the chaos by becoming the Leonid Brezhnev of the Arab world: He staved off the future by institutionalizing fear, even as he did nothing to nurture a civil society out of the country's inherent divisions. Alas, the collapse of such a state is messy business. Sectarian awareness may be less deeply etched in Syria than in Iraq, but once the killing starts people have a tendency to revert to these default identities. Read More »
After all, we are talking less of the removal of one man than of the end of a 42-year dynasty. The president's father, Hafez al Assad, came to power in 1970 after 21 changes of government -- mostly through coups -- in Syria's first 24 years of independence. Moreover, the new Syrian state held free and fair elections in 1947, 1949 and 1954 that all broke down according to tribal, regional and sectarian interests. Hafez finally ended the chaos by becoming the Leonid Brezhnev of the Arab world: He staved off the future by institutionalizing fear, even as he did nothing to nurture a civil society out of the country's inherent divisions. Alas, the collapse of such a state is messy business. Sectarian awareness may be less deeply etched in Syria than in Iraq, but once the killing starts people have a tendency to revert to these default identities. Read More »
