Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Oct. 24, 2010)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Xi Jinping Promoted to CMC Vice-Chairman

Chinese Promotion Puts Official on Track for Presidency By Michael Wines (New York Times, Oct. 19, 2010) Xi Jinping, China’s vice president, was named to an important military position, continuing his elevation to the top echelons of China’s leadership and reconfirming that the Communist Party had selected him as the successor to President Hu Jintao.
Xi Who Must be Obeyed
(The Economist, Oct. 21, 2010) The transfer of power to Mr Hu was the first smooth succession in communist China’s history. The handover to Mr Xi may not be the second.
Jockeying Under Way for China’s Top Political Posts By Duncan Hewitt (Newsweek, Oct. 21, 2010) As Beijing moves closer to a handover of power to a new generation of political leaders in 2012, jockeying for influence between rival factions is becoming more evident, with sometimes unexpected results.
PLA Gains Clout: Xi Jinping Elevated to CMC Vice-Chairman By Willy Lam (China Brief 10(21), Jamestown Foundation, Oct. 22, 2010) Xi's induction into the policy-setting CMC could also augment the military establishment's already formidable clout in foreign policy and other arenas.
Rising Leader Xi Jinping’s Family Suffered in Chinese Power Struggles By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Oct. 23, 2010) In Beijing for China's leader-in-waiting, Xi Jinping, growing up as the son of a prominent revolutionary brought more pain than privilege.

President Ma's AP Interview and Cross-Strait Issues

Transcript of President Ma’s Associated Press Interview
(Presidential Office, Oct. 19, 2010) President Ma Ying-jeou was interviewed on October 19 by the Associated Press (AP). As the AP reporting turned out differently from what the president meant in his remarks during the interview, the Office of the President has asked the Government Information Office under the Executive Yuan to contact the AP and request a correction.

Ma Moving Ahead with China
(AP, Oct. 20, 2010) President Ma Ying-jeou said he is open to a political dialogue with China once remaining economic issues are resolved, though he gave no timetable for when those discussions might start.

Ma Denies China Political Talks Report
(China Post, Oct. 20, 2010) President Ma Ying-jeou denied a report by the Associated Press suggesting that he was ready for political dialogue with mainland China in his second team if he gets re-elected.

AP Responds to Taiwan Government’s Protest
(CNA, Oct. 24, 2010) The Associated Press responded Saturday to protests by the government of Taiwan over alleged distortions of President Ma Ying-jeou's comments in an exclusive interview, saying that the controversy involved “mainly matters of emphasis.”

China Says in No Rush to Talk Politics with Taiwan
(Reuters, Oct. 20, 2010) Wang Yi, head of China's Taiwan Affairs Office, told overseas Chinese in New York that promoting economic ties with Taiwan was still the priority, state news agency Xinhua said.

Time Is Not Ripe for Meeting between Ma, Hu: Premier
(CNA, Oct. 21, 2010) Premier Wu Den-yih reiterated that the time was not ripe for a meeting between the leaders of Taiwan and China, despite their warming ties.

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

China’s New Submarines and Deployment Patterns: Aimed at South China Sea? By Russell Hsiao (China Brief 10(21), Jamestown Foundation, Oct. 22, 2010) Images and media reports about new types of submarines appearing in recent months have generated a lot of interest in China's evolving submarine force.

Defense Ministry to Review French-Built Fighter Jets
(CNA, Oct. 19, 2010) National Defense Minister Kao Hua-chu said that he will ask for an overall review of the country's French made Mirage fighter jets after a lawmaker pointed out that the flight hours of the fighters have been reduced due to concern about a possible engine problem.

Taiwan Plans to Build Six Minesweeping Naval Craft
(AFP, Oct. 20, 2010) A Taiwanese legislator said that Taiwan was planning to build six minesweepers as part of efforts to boost its defense capabilities, despite improving political and economic ties with China.

F-16 Upgrade Doesn’t Fly with Taiwan By Jens Kastner(Asia Times, Oct. 22, 2010) Even though Taiwan is being promised F-16A/Bs packed with sophisticated US weaponry, the Taiwanese are far from grateful. They believe that not only is a war with China not going to happen, but that the Americans will eventually backtrack on their promises anyway, as they have done many times.

Stop US Arms Sales to Taiwan: China
(Taipei Times, Oct. 24, 2010) Director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Wang Yi ended a mid-week visit to Washington by urging US President Barack Obama to stop selling arms to Taiwan.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Ma’s Approval Ratings Soar from Recovering Economy
(China Post, Oct. 22, 2010) President Ma Ying-jeou's approval ratings are at its highest since last July, soaring up to 38.2 percent for the month of October, with surveys citing the gradual recovery of the economy as the main reason for the increased confidence in the nation's leader.

Taiwan Moves Up Press Freedom Index
(Taipei Times, Oct. 21, 2010) Taiwan and South Korea made solid bounds in Reporters Without Borders’ 2010 World Press Freedom Index released, rising 11 and 27 places respectively, while China languished in 171st place.

Taiwan Won’t Sign Unfavorable TIFA Agreements, Premier Wu Den-yih Says (Taipei Times, Oct. 23, 2010) Premier Wu Den-yih said the government would not sign any agreements with the US under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) platform that are unfavorable for the country.

China's Rise and Domestic Issues

If China Frees Nobel Winner, It Will Show Its Strength By Vaclav Havel and Desmond M. Tutu (Washington Post, Oct. 22, 2010) The Chinese government can continue to fight a losing battle, against the forces of democracy and freedom that its own premier recently called "irresistible." Or it can stand on the side of justice, free Liu Xiaobo and immediately end the house arrest imposed on his wife.
Online Technology Challenges Censors—Part I By Johan Lagerkvist (YaleGlobal, Oct. 22, 2010) To be effective, censors in the world’s second largest economy would have to eliminate the essential modern tool. Inquisitive youth test boundaries, and pragmatic leaders may eventually realize that, for promoting stability, allowing the battle of ideas is a better bet than repression.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

Turbulence Remains in South China Sea By Jim Stevenson(VoA, Oct. 17, 2010) Ultimately, as China expands its activities, they will come in contact with the United States more and more.  It is in U.S. interest, and indeed in Chinese interests, and the interests of the other countries in the Asian-Pacific region, that countries work more closely together to establish rules of the road.

Rising China Causes Apprehension at Asia Summit
(AFP, Oct. 24, 2010) Behind the official handshakes and smiles at this week's 16-nation Asian summit in Vietnam, China's increasingly assertive behaviour means the region will be in an apprehensive mood, analysts say.

Taipei and the New, Assertive China By Arthur Waldron(China Brief 10(21), Jamestown Foundation, Oct. 22, 2010) Starting in late spring an unexpected tide of events set in motion the beginning of a new polarization between China and many of the other. This redrawing posed in turn an unanticipated question for President Ma's government in Taiwan: which side would the island take?

Taiwan Warships to Escort Fishing Boats
(China Post, Oct. 21, 2010) Taiwan will send its “big battleships” to escort the country's trawlers as the autumn crab season began almost two months late this year, the Council of Agriculture and the Coast Guard Administration said.

Japan Laments China Protest Damage
(BBC, Oct. 18, 2010) Japan's prime minister, Naoto Kan, has expressed regret over anti-Japanese protests in China in the last two days.

China, Japan Need Help to Stop Crisis from Escalating—and Fast By Andrew L. Oros and Steven Clemons (Daily Yomiuri, Sep. 25, 2010) Without a better developed crisis management framework, China and Japan--and pontificating nationalists inside each--are bound to irresponsibly exploit future such incidents and in doing so risk undermining the regional dynamism and growth that have earned admiration from the rest of the world.

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