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1. Ehud Barak: History Will Judge Obama on Nuclear Iran
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
“History will judge this [Obama] administration when it comes to the end of its term whether Iran has nuclear weapons or not,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Fox News in an interview. He also said sanctions are not enough to stop Iran from reaching nuclear capability.
Speaking in an interview while visiting officials in Washington, the Defense Minister added, “We are not frightened by [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad’s statements, but we have to take seriously that a nuclear Iran” would begin an arms race in the Middle East and “encourage global jihad and intimidation. We have to consider what follows sanctions, which will not suffice.”
Barak estimated that Iran “technically” may be able to possess a nuclear weapon within a year and a half “if they break all the rules.” He explained the major problem is that Iran may “become immune” to a military strike by building several sites and protecting them by burying them deep underground.
Concerning the building freeze on new homes for Jews in Judea and Samaria which is officially scheduled to end next week, Barak took a surprisingly nationalist stance that contradicted several actions in Israel that have provided obstacles for Jews in Judea and Samaria.
“It sounds bizarre to consider stretching [the building freeze] because we gave an unprecedented gesture that never happened in the history of our country to put an end to private projects for 10 months. For nine months, the Palestinians stalled and ridiculed it as something that was nonsense, and in the last month, it has become [the issue] on which the whole peace process stands. It is almost inconceivable.”
Barak reminded viewers that the Palestinian Authority in the past has discussed the issue of a new Arab state with Israel despite massive building for Jews. “We should find a formula [for continuing talks] without humiliating Abu Mazen [Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas ] and without trying to corner Israel,” Barak said.
2. Arabs Hurl Fire Bomb at Jewish Home in Jerusalem
by Gil Ronen
Arabs threw a fire bomb (“Molotov cocktail”) at the porch of an apartment in a building that houses Jewish families in the Abu Tor neighborhood of southern Jerusalem. The bomb did not ignite and no one was hurt.
A woman who lives next to the building told Arutz Sheva's Hebrew-language service that the firebomb was thrown from a nearby Arab building. This structure was built illegally but nothing has been done to demolish it, she said.
The neighbor said the phenomenon is not new. “About a month and a half ago, three firebombs were thrown into the building's yard. The bottles ignited and burned a very tall cypress tree. Another firebomb that did not ignite was thrown subsequently and this is the third time in a month and a half.”
"My husband called the police but instead of arriving immediately they started to question him and inquire about all sorts of irrelevant things,” she said.
"This week,” she went on, “Major General Franco, the District Commander, visited here, and my husband told me that he intends to sleep in his wooden sukkah during the Sukkot holiday. Major General Franco promised to secure the place and make it possible to sleep in the sukkahs.”
Part of Abu Tor was liberated in the 1967 Six Day War, and is inhabited by Arabs. The other part was liberated in 1948, and is inhabited by Jews. The neighborhood was quiet until the general deterioration in security in Israel which has taken place in the past two decades.
3. Report: Netanyahu Pushes Referendum on Peace Deal
by Maayana Miskin
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is backing a call for a national referendum on any final agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority regarding Judea and Samaria, according to Channel 2 news.
MK Ofir Akunis (Likud), a close associate of Netanyahu's, has written up a proposed law that would require a referendum. Netanyahu reportedly saw the bill on Friday and gave it his full support.
Earlier in the month Netanyahu said that he had not ruled out the possibility of a national referendum if Israel and the PA were to succeed in reaching an agreement within a year.
Political analysts suggested that the law could help Netanyahu keep his coalition together by reassuring the political Right that no territories will be ceded without the people's approval.
Netanyahu has met twice with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and with senior United States diplomats. Talks between Netanyahu and Abbas focused on “core issues” such as the borders of a potential PA state in Judea and Samaria and the status of Jerusalem. Netanyahu's conditions, security and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, were not considered "core" issues.
Abbas has threatened to leave the talks over the resumption of construction for Jews in Judea and Samaria on September 26. He had demanded a building freeze before starting talks. Netanyahu unilaterally froze building for Israeli families in the region for 10 months in an unprecedented move aimed at bringing the PA to the negotiating table, however the PA waited until the freeze was about to end to use its continuation as a condition for continuing the fledgling talks.
4. Obama: Military Strike on Iran “Not Ideal”
by Elad Benari
US President Barack Obama said on Monday that while Iran having a nuclear weapon would be a “real problem”, he did not think that military action by Israel or the United States against the Islamic Republic was the “ideal way” to solve the crisis, according to a Reuters report.
During a town-hall style meeting on CNBC, Obama said: “We continue to be open to diplomatic solutions to resolve this. We don't think that a war between Israel and Iran or military options would be the ideal way to solve this problem. But we are keeping all our options on the table.”
Obama plans to use his address to the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday to tell Iran that the “door is open” to better relations with the international community, as long as it can demonstrate the peaceful intent of its nuclear program. Obama will stress during his speech that if Iran fails to meet its international obligations, the cost of its uranium enrichment program will escalate.
Both the US and the UN Security Council have tightened their sanctions on Iran in recent months.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has continuously verbally attacked both Israel and the US. In an interview he gave to the Al-Jazeera network several weeks ago, Ahmadinejad said that Israel is “too weak” to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and dismissed the possibility of a US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, saying that “America is not interested in sparking a military confrontation. There are no logical reasons for the United States to carry out such an act. Do you believe an army that has been defeated by a small army in Iraq can enter into a war with a large and well trained army like the Iranian army?”
Ahmadinejad has offered the US his country’s friendship, saying that “the friendship of Iran is much better than its hostility.”
White House deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes told reporters on Monday that "the door is open to [Iran] having a better relationship with the United States and with the international community. However, in order to walk through that door, Iran is going to have to demonstrate its commitment to show its peaceful intent around its nuclear program, and meet its obligations to the international community.”
Ahmadinejad is currently in New York to take part in the General Assembly, and conducted a meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Sunday. During the meeting, Ban urged the Iranian President to enter negotiations regarding its nuclear program.
President Shimon Peres, who is also currently in New York, criticized Ahmedinjad after his speech to the General Assembly on Sunday. Peres told reporters that Ahmadinejad “calls for our destruction, and supplies arms to every terrorist organization in the Middle East.”
5. Abbas Furious at Israel for Killing Hamas Terrorist in PA City
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is furious at Israel for killing a Hamas terrorist in the city of Tulkarm, where the PA is responsible for security.
Abbas told the Bethlehem-based Ma'an news agency in an interview that he demanded that Israel stop operating in PA cities where the PA is supposed to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure. He did not say whether the PA knew of the location of the terrorist, who was identified as Iyad Abu-Shalabiya, 38, a Hamas member and former senior commander.
He had served time in prison in Israel for security offenses, and was on the IDF's “wanted” list.
American-trained PA troops, who officially are called “policemen” but underwent army training under the supervision of American army officers, generally have dealt with crime, traffic violations and misdemeanors. They have entered the field of security more frequently in the past several weeks to arrest Arabs who are active in Hamas and are against the rival Fatah party, headed by Abbas.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has insisted that Israeli forces be present in the Jordan Valley if an agreement is reached for the establishment of a new Arab state headed by the PA. PA spokesman Husam Zomlot said that "not one Israeli soldier" will be permitted to remain in a future Palestinian state, the Bloomberg news site reported.
6. Poll: PA Youth Reject PA State as Solution
by Chana Ya'ar
The latest Palestinian Authority public opinion poll shows that the population’s 18-year-olds largely reject any solution whatsoever to the so-called “Palestinian problem” and appear to be unable to make their peace with any compromise that might provide a way out of their conflict with Israel.
The survey, conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University from September 17-19, sampled 1,361 eligible voters aged 18, residing in Judea, Samaria and Gaza. The findings were translated by IMRA, the Independent Media Review and Analysis watchdog agency.
Not Everyone Sees PA State as Solution
Perhaps surprisingly, only a slim majority of respondents (52.5 percent) said they accept the creation of a new PA country on the area of the 1967 borders “as a final solution for the Palestinian problem.” Nearly as many (43.6 percent) rejected the idea, with only 3.8 percent saying they had no opinion.
An even greater majority (62.9 percent) said they opposed the creation of a PA state within the 1967 borders with some land exchange as a final solution for the “Palestinian problem.” Only 32.9 percent of respondents said they would accept such an option, with 4.2 percent expressing no opinion.
Significantly, more than three-quarters of the PA’s voting youth (78 percent) rejected the idea of making Jerusalem a capital for two states, “Palestine” and Israel, with only 19.4 percent of respondents supporting the idea.
Rejection Upon Rejection: No Solution is Good Enough
It appears that none of the options presented found favor with young PA voters, regardless of what they were. For example, a majority of respondents (56.1 percent) also rejected a confederation between the PA and Jordan, with only 35.3 supporting the idea. Nearly ten percent (8.7 percent) expressed uncertainty, saying they didn’t know, or had no opinion on the matter.
In addition, a majority (53.4 percent) also rejected a deployment of Arab peace forces in Judea and Samaria. There was, however, a more positive response to this plan: 42.3 percent of respondents said they supported the idea.
A higher majority – 61.9 percent – rejected the idea of a deployment of international peacekeepers in Judea and Samaria, with only 33.3 percent expressing support.
Pessimism About Direct Talks
The majority of respondents (67.9 percent) said they expect the direct talks between Israel and the PA to fail, and 63.3 percent assigned the blame for that potential failure to the Israeli government. Nearly a fifth (20.9 percent) said the U.S. would be to blame if talks fail; only 10.5 percent said the PA would bear any responsibility.
An overwhelming majority (81 percent) supported PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’s decision not to participate in talks if Israel ends its 10 month-long freeze on Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria as scheduled on September 26. A similar number (81.9 percent) said they reject conducting talks “in case Israel continues building settlements” in Judea, Samaria and eastern Jerusalem.
Ambivalence on Fatah v. Hamas
A great deal of ambivalence was seen in the responses to queries on issues surrounding the split between the two major factions in the PA, Fatah and Hamas, and how the status of the Gaza region might be affected in the future.
Respondents were evenly split (47 percent each) on the question of whether it is possible to reach a reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas in the near future. Likewise, there was nearly an even split between those who felt such a reconciliation could speed the peace process (38.6 percent) and those who felt it would have no effect (39.2 percent). Another 15.9 percent said it would simply result in entangling and stopping the peace process altogether.
The majority of respondents (65.4 percent) said they believe, nevertheless, that Gaza will not remain separate from the rest of the PA forever. However, 31.8 percent said they thought it might continue to be separate, as it is at present.
Shalit Irrelevant to Fatah-Hamas Issue
The issue of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, held captive in Gaza by Hamas since he was abducted by the group’s operatives in June 2006, was not considered relevant to the process by a majority of respondents (55.4 percent).
However, more than a third (34.5 percent) said they believed that concluding a prisoner exchange deal with Israel for Shalit’s freedom might, in fact, speed up the process of reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
One of the highest number of ambivalent responses were seen on this question: 10.1 percent told pollsters they either had no opinion, or simply did not know whether concluding a deal would speed up a reconciliation, or not.
Election Apathy: ‘I Won’t Vote’
On a number of different questions, a significant percentage of respondents (20 percent) said they would not participate in elections, with nearly an equal number (18 to 19 percent) expressing ambivalence about the issue altogether.
If presidential elections were to be held at present, a slim majority (32.3 percent) said they would vote for a Fatah candidate – but 20.8 percent said they would not vote at all, and 19.2 percent said they had not yet decided what to do. Only 10.4 percent said they would vote for Hamas, 3.5 percent said they would vote for an Islamic independent, and 3.2 percent said they would vote for a leftist candidate.
Respondents were equally divided about legislative elections: 33.2 percent said they would vote for a Fatah ticket, and 10.7 percent said they would vote for Hamas. But 20.9 percent said they would not vote, and 17.9 percent were undecided; 3.6 percent said they would support an Islamic independent ticket, and 3.2 percent said that would vote leftist.
A larger majority (47.4 percent) predicted a Fatah win if PA legislative elections were to be held today, however, with 15.9 percent saying that Hamas would win. The largest number of ambivalent responses was seen in this question, however: fully 23.6 percent said they had no opinion or did not know who would win if a PA legislative election were to be held today.
Fayyad More Popular Than Haniyeh
The government of Salam Fayyad won hands down (61.3 percent) when it came to perception of who was the most capable of managing internal PA affairs, as opposed to the Gaza government of Hamas de facto Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh (22 percent).
Likewise, Fayyad won a thumbs-up on his performance rating from the PA’s young voters: 68.3 percent said the Fayyad government’s performance was “good,” as opposed to 23 percent who rated it “bad,” and 8.7 percent who had no opinion or said they didn’t know.
Fayyad’s rating contrasts sharply with that of Haniyeh: only 30.6 percent of respondents felt the Hamas leader had done a good job in the Gaza region he has ruled since 1007, with 57.2 percent rating his performance as “bad” and 12.2 percent expressing ambivalence.
Of those who responded to the survey, 37.9 percent were supporters of Fatah, 11.6 were Hamas supporters, 3.3 percent considered themselves independent Islamists and the rest belonged to other groups.
7. US Fears Russian Cruise Missile for Syria to Destabilize Mideast
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
The United States shares Israel’s concern over the possibility of Hizbullah obtaining advanced anti-ship missiles that Russia is selling to Syria, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Monday.
Russia defended the sale of the Yakhont cruise missile, saying there is no reason to fear that the weapons will fall into the hands of terrorists. Hizbullah scored a surprise advantage in the 2006 Second Lebanon War by using powerful Russian-made anti-tank missiles that had been sold to Syria.
Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said Gates told visiting Defense Minister Ehud Barak that the sale could further "destabilize" the Middle East.
Gates brought up the sale during a visit by Russian officials to the Pentagon last week, according to Morrell. Russia agreed in 2007 to sell the Yakhont supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria, but Israeli and American concerns had delayed final approval until last week.
The P-800 Yakhont missiles has a range of 180 miles (300 kilometers and the capability of carrying a 400-pound warhead. Its ability to cruise only a few feet above the sea makes it difficult to be spotted by radar systems.
Israel is openly angry over the sale, which Barak failed to stop during a recent visit to Russia, where he concluded Russian purchases of Israeli military equipment, particularly unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs).
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