Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Monday, 11 January 2016

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2016-01-11 | NO.20(2) epaper |
South China Sea Disputes and Other Regional Issues
North Korea's Hydrogen Bomb Claim Strains Ties with China (2016-01-07)
(New York Times, By Javier C. Hernandez) By proceeding with its nuclear test about 50 miles from the Chinese border, North Korea took a gamble that China, its largest trading partner and economic lifeline, would not react with austere sanctions, as many countries have urged.

S Korea Seeking Strategic Arms from Washington
 (2016-01-08)
(Reuters) South Korea is in talks with the US to deploy US strategic weapons on the Korean peninsula, a South Korean military official said, a day after North Korea said it successfully tested a hydrogen nuclear device.
Where China and the United States Disagree on North Korea (2016-01-09)
(The Diplomat, By Scott A. Snyder) The recent nuclear test has exposed a deep Sino-U.S. gap over North Korea in at least four critical dimensions.

PRC Military Flights Seen As Likely to New Spratly Sites
 (2016-01-06)
(Reuters) China’s first landing of a plane on one of its new island runways in the South China Sea shows Beijing’s facilities in the disputed region are being completed on schedule and military flights will inevitably follow, foreign officials and analysts said.

A Preview of China-Southeast Asia Relations in 2016 (2016-01-08)
(The Diplomat, By Xue Li and Xu Yanzhuo) If Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, is elected to be Taiwan’s leader in January, China believes she will pursue de jure independence. In this case, China’s maritime priority will shift to the East China Sea, especially the Taiwan Strait, which means China will take on a more restrained approach in the South China Sea.

Japan's Defense Minister to Visit Philippines to Boost Security Ties (2016-01-08)
(The Diplomat, By Prashanth Parameswaran) Japan’s defense minister Gen Nakatani could visit the Philippines as early as April this year to beef up security ties between the two nations as they celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic ties, Kyodo News reported January 5.
U.S. “Pivot” to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Rethinking US Asia Policy: 3 Options between Appeasement and War (2016-01-06)
(The Diplomat, By Van Jackson) The first option to shape better future conditions without either appeasement or war is to significantly enhance the military capabilities of China’s potential adversaries. The most likely conflict scenarios with China run through a U.S. ally or partner — Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, or the Philippines, for example. 
DPP Searches for New China Stance; Cross-Strait Issues
Beijing Offers a Limited Flight Transit Proposal (2016-01-06)
(Taipei Times) China’s Taiwan Affairs Office announced that it would allow residents of Chongqing, Kunming and Nanchang to transit at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport for flights to a third country, adding that the trial run is the result of Chinese President Xi Jingping’s meeting with President Ma Ying-jeou.
Tsai Urges MAC to Clarify Transit Offer (2016-01-07)
(Taipei Times) DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen urged the Mainland Affairs Council to provide a detailed explanation of China’s limited transit flight proposal.
Preparatory Talks Held for Trade in Goods Pact Ahead of 2016 Election (2016-01-07)
(China Post) A preparatory meeting between Taiwan and China was convened in Beijing for the 13th round of negotiations on a cross-strait trade in goods pact. Officials expected negotiations to take place after Taiwan's national election on Jan. 16, but the opposition party argued that they should be delayed until after new lawmakers take office.

Chinese 'Spend More in Taiwan Than Japanese'
 (2016-01-05)
(CNA) Tourists from mainland China spent an average of US$232.15 per day in Taiwan in the first three quarters of 2015, surpassing spending by Japanese travelers for the first time, according to statistics released by the Tourism Bureau.

Taiwan's Election: What to Watch for (2016-01-06)
(The Diplomat, By Shannon Tiezzi) Dr. Richard Bush, senior fellow for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, talks with The Diplomat about the potential implications a DPP victory could have for Taiwan, mainland China, and the United States.
PLA and Military Balance
China Tests New Rail-Mobile Missile Capable of Hitting All of US (2016-01-05)
(The Diplomat, By Franz-Stefan Gady) The combination of high-speed mobility, launch cars disguised as civilian passenger trains, tunnel protection and secure reloading of missiles, coupled with multiple warheads, makes the system extremely hard to regulate or verify the number of systems. 
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
The Rise of Taiwan's ‘Third Force’ (2016-01-06)
(The Diplomat, By Linda van der Horst) The NPP’s political rhetoric should be interpreted as pro-Taiwan rather than anti-China. Their political agenda is strongly focused on progressive social justice, human rights, and democratic values. Their economic policy focuses on higher corporate and luxury taxes in order to redress wealth inequality.

DPP Fears Growing Support for NPP, Other Third Parties
 (2016-01-07)
(China Post) The current elections are reportedly seeing a new trend, with the DPP concerned that their votes are becoming diluted by the rise of smaller political parties such as the New Power Party.
Tsai Promises Power Transition Task Force (2016-01-09)
(China Post) Tsai Ing-wen said that she "did not deny" the existence of a meeting between cross-strait negotiators that led to a future agreement termed the "1992 Consensus." She reiterated that the core of her future cross-strait policy would adhere to the Constitution of the R.O.C.
Economic Issues Are Driving Taiwan's Elections: US Report (2016-01-08)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) Taiwan's economy is suffering from the looming threat of an energy shortage, low domestic investment and overdependence on China, and the economic problems are expected to be deciding factors in the elections, said a US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report.
Tsai Seeks to Maintain Cross-Strait Status Quo (2016-01-10)
(CNA, By Lilian Wu) Tsai Ing-wen said that she will abide by the Republic of China constitutional system and rely on democratic principles and the greatest possible public consensus to promote her China policy.
Chu Vows to 'Turn Taiwan Around' (2016-01-10)
(CNA, Elizabeth Hsu and Y.F. Low) KMT presidential candidate and Chairman Eric Chu has pledged to "turn Taiwan around" via three strategies — raising the minimum wage, narrowing the rich-poor gap, and achieving consensus on efforts to strive for Taiwan's international space, if he wins the Jan. 16 election.
Over 30% Confident in Tsai Leadership: Survey (2016-01-06)
(CNA) More than 30 percent of Taiwanese people have confidence in opposition Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen's ability to address the urgent problems facing Taiwan, including a slow economy and the bitter competition between political parties, a survey has found.
Exports Fall by 14% in 11th Month of Decline (2016-01-09)
(China Post) Taiwan exports tumbled 13.9 percent year-on-year in December to US$22.06 billion to mark their 11th straight month of decline, the Ministry of Finance said.
Currency Devaluations by Asian Tigers Could Hinder Global Growth (2016-01-09)
(New York Times, By Landon Thomas Jr.) China’s decision to push the value of its currency lower has opened a new front of worry for global investors: a potential wave of currency devaluations among the so-called Asian tigers — South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
Evaluating Taiwan's National Power (2016-01-06)
(The Diplomat, By David Gitter and Robert Sutter) An analysis conducted by the authors in a recently published NBR report finds that Taiwan has played a weak hand well in the face of a massive external threat, but its policies have not been optimal due to a lack of cooperation between Taiwan’s two main political parties. 
-Taiwan's Strong but Stifled Foundation of National Power

ROC the Most Optimistic about the Future, Says Poll (2016-01-06)
(CNA) In terms of overall levels of well-being for the next generation, people in Taiwan (80.0) were the most optimistic, followed by Korea (71.8) and Hong Kong (69.3), according to MasterCard's first Next Generation Well-Being Index.

Gov't to Ask Japan to Say Sorry to 'Comfort Women'
 (2016-01-06)
(China Post) Taiwan is officially to ask Japan to apologize and compensate Taiwanese "comfort women" who were forced into sexual slavery during World War II, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said after consensus was reached during a cross-agency task force meeting held the same day.
MOFA Summons Japan Envoy Over 'Comfort Women' (2016-01-07)
(China Post) Foreign Minister David Lin summoned Japan's top envoy to Taiwan to make clear the R.O.C.'s stance in demanding an official apology and compensation from the Japanese government for Taiwanese "comfort women."
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
Dow Plunges 276 Points in First Trading Day of 2016 (2016-01-04)
(Wall Street Journal, By Dan Strumpf and Christopher Whittall) Global stocks kicked off 2016 with a stumble, as a disappointing report on China’s economy rekindled concerns over slowing global growth and tempered hopes for a better year.

China Stock: Trading Called Off for Second Time This Week
 (2016-01-07)
(Wall Street Journal, By Shen Hong) China’s stock market tumbled and scored its shortest trading day in its 25-year history on Thursday, as Beijing’s growing tolerance of a weaker currency intensified concerns about capital flight and the health of the world’s No. 2 economy.

A New Economic Era for China Goes Off the Rails (2016-01-08)
(New York Times, By Keith Bradsher) Less than three weeks after a highly publicized meeting, President Xi's plans have been derailed as China’s stock market and currency once again rattle investors around the world. The latest rout sets up a challenge for Mr. Xi, who has positioned himself as the master of the country’s economy.

Many in Hong Kong Fear Beijing's Reach After Editor and Colleagues Disappear (2016-01-08)
(New York Times, By Michael Forsythe) Mr. Lee’s case, and those of his four colleagues at the publishing house Mighty Current Media, is the latest example of the ever-lengthening arm of the Chinese state, which, as its economy grows, appears to be increasingly willing to reach beyond its own legal jurisdiction to apprehend people.
Contact: Dalton Lin, Executive Editor
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