Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Monday, 25 January 2016

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2016-01-25 | NO.20(4) epaper |
South China Sea Disputes
Vietnam Objects to Chinese Oil Rig in Disputed Waters (2016-01-21)
(New York Times, By Mike Ives) The dispute came as Vietnam’s top leaders convened here on Wednesday for the start of a Communist Party national congress, which will choose the country’s leaders for the next five years. Analysts said the dispute was unlikely to affect those decisions, and the party appeared to be taking pains not to alienate China. 
East China Sea Disputes and Japan Policy
Tsai Meets with Japanese Envoy, Frank Murkowski (2016-01-18)
(Taipei Times) Interchange Association, Japan Chairman Mitsuo Ohashi was among the first foreign representatives to visit Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen yesterday to congratulate her on her election as president.

Abe, Japan Prime Minister, Congratulates Tsai on Win (2016-01-19)
(CNA) Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe congratulated Democratic Progressive Party Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen on her victory in Taiwan's presidential election on Saturday and called Taiwan "an old friend."
Japanese Official's Congrats to Tsai Signify 'Cordial Ties' (2016-01-22)
(China Post) This is the first time that Japanese officials as senior as the prime minister and foreign minister have issued congratulatory messages to a president-elect of the R.O.C.
U.S. “Pivot” to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Taiwan's New Direction (2016-01-17)
(Wall Street Journal) On Saturday Ms. Tsai singled out the U.S. and Japan among Taiwan’s “international friends.” Let’s hope that friendship is reciprocated. The growth of economic, political and military cooperation among Taipei, Washington and Tokyo will be central to maintaining stability in East Asia.

For U.S., Taiwan Vote Changes Calculus Over ‘One China’
 (2016-01-19)
(Wall Street Journal, By Andrew Browne) Last weekend’s vote, in which the Taiwanese electorate overwhelming endorsed a party that rejects Beijing’s “One China” formula, confirmed the direction in the most emphatic way to date. That not only puts China in a bind, but the U.S. too.
The Taiwan Elections: Don't Expect a US Policy Change (2016-01-20)
(PacNet #8, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Robert Sutter) Even with the recent significant US debate over China and a hardening of Obama administration policy toward Beijing, US government policy toward Taiwan is unlikely to change for the remainder of Obama's term. After that, possible change is contingent on which US presidential candidate is elected and the salience of the Taiwan issue among an array of more urgent policy choices for the new US president.
US Asia Rebalance Still Lacks Direction, Resources: Study (2016-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Prashanth Parameswaran) More than four years after it was first unveiled, the Obama administration’s pivot or rebalance to the Asia-Pacific lacks the necessary direction and resources to secure U.S. interests, a new think tank report released this week argues.

US Policy Limits Taiwan's Role in ‘Rebalance’ (2016-01-22)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) Taiwan is eager to contribute to the US rebalance to Asia, but is “strictly limited” by US policy, a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank said. 
DPP Searches for New China Stance; Cross-Strait Issues
Tsai's Cross-Strait Policy to Rest on Democratic Will (2016-01-22)
(Liberty Times) President-elect Tsai Ing-wen said that the election result showed Taiwanese support maintaining the ‘status quo’ in cross-strait ties and that she would build policy on precedents.

Mainland Shows 'Good Will' Before Taiwanese Elections, Claims President-Elect Tsai (2016-01-19)
(CNA) President-elect Tsai Ing-wen said that China "showed a high degree of restraint" before Taiwan's presidential election on Jan. 16, calling it "good will" and "the best form of communication."
DPP Secretary-General in US to Tout Stability (2016-01-21)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) Wu said the DPP’s overwhelming victory reflected young voters discontent with the KMT, with the performance of local administrations and the DPP’s balanced position on controversial issues. He warned against interpreting the election result as a defeat for China.
-Assessing the Outcomes and Implications of Taiwan's January 2016 Election with Joseph Wu (Video)
-Full Text of Wu's Speech
ROC Flag a Consensus among Taiwanese: DPP Official (2016-01-21)
(CNA) The official designation of Taiwan, the Republic of China (R.O.C.), and the R.O.C. flag are highly symbolic for people in Taiwan, and there is a broad consensus on the national flag, a Democratic Progressive Party official said.
TSU Considering Disbanding After Election Losses (2016-01-20)
(Taipei Times) The party said it would either reduce its size and its operations to continue sending its signature message of resistance to China, or it would dissolve entirely.
Ex-US Official Meets with ROC Political Leaders (2016-01-19)
(China Post) Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns met with President Ma Ying-jeou, President-elect Tsai Ing-wen and former Kuomintang Chairman Eric Chu on Monday, which invoked concern from the mainland Chinese authorities.
US Reiterates Hope for Cross-Strait Relations to Remain Peaceful (2016-01-23)
(CNA) U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in Beijing that Washington has an abiding interest in continued peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing's Advice for Tsai Ing-wen (2016-01-18)
(The Diplomat, By Bo Zhiyue) The mainland’s policy toward Taiwan is judged to have been so successful that no one, including Tsai Ing-wen, could afford to oppose current trends. According to Xinhua's comment, the majority of Taiwanese accept the KMT’s cross-strait policy. They do not wish to see either a reversal of the good relationship between Taiwan and the mainland or the loss of the “peace dividend” of the cross-strait relationship.
Chinese State-run Media Warn Tsai on Independence (2016-01-19)
(AFP) China’s state-run media warned president-elect Tsai Ing-wen against pursuing a pro-independence path and that a formal split from China would be a “dead end.”
Scholars Mixed about Cross-Strait Ties After DPP's Big Victory (2016-01-19)
(CNA) Local scholars have voiced mixed opinions about the direction of ties between Taiwan and China after the victory of Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen in Saturday's election.
A Stable Transition in Taiwan? (2016-01-19)
(Council on Foreign Relations, By Eleanor Albert) “If Ms. Tsai fails in her effort to maintain predictable, stable, and beneficial cross-strait relations, this will have an undesirable impact on regional security affecting all the neighboring states,” writes Jerome A. Cohen.
Tsai Faces Challenges to Develop Democracy (2016-01-20)
(Taipei Times, By Stephen Young) Tsai Ing-wen needs to use the four-month period before her inauguration on May 20 to present a coherent strategy for reviving the nation’s lagging economy. Just as important, Tsai needs to continue to reach out to China as far as her party permits, since a vindictive Beijing would complicate all her policy goals, including reviving the economy.
Cross-Strait Peace Is Foundation for Taiwan Democracy: President Ma (2016-01-24)
(CNA) President Ma Ying-jeou said that peace is the foundation for Taiwan's democratic system and stressed the importance of peace across the Taiwan Strait and in its democracy.
Chinese Visitors May Drop by 1/2: Reports (2016-01-24)
(China Post) The government urged mainland China not to harm cross-strait relations as reports circulate there may be one-third to one-half reductions in the number of mainland Chinese tourists visiting the island following the election of DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen on Jan. 16 as president.
China Largely Shrugs at Shake-Up After Taiwan Elections (2016-01-19)
(New York Times, By Didi Kirsten Tatlow) The election of Tsai Ing-wen as president of Taiwan was met in China with sparse and largely critical comment, suggesting both a lack of interest toward a candidate whose party’s nativist leanings many ordinary Chinese do not understand and censorship in the news media and online forums about an outcome that the Communist Party had not wished to see. 

Will the ‘One China’ Policy Survive the New Taiwan? (2016-01-19)
(Foreign Policy, By Daniel Blumenthal) The electoral outcome was significant and could have ramifications for both Taiwan's relationship with the People’s Republic of China, as well as the United State’s relationship with the region. Here are a few implications to consider.
Shawna Yang Ryan on the 1947 Incident That Shaped Taiwan's Identity (2016-01-23)
(Sinosphere, By Didi Kirsten Tatlow) Once, Taiwan identity was something divisive and politicized, but today I think Taiwanese people recognize that it expresses the shared experiences of the people of Taiwan and encompasses the many forces and influences that have led to modern Taiwan.
Taiwan Affairs Office Deputy Director Gong Probed (2016-01-20)
(Reuters) A deputy head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office is being investigated for suspected “serious discipline violations,” the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-graft watchdog said.
PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales
China Finally Centralizes Its Space, Cyber, Information Forces (2016-01-20)
(The Diplomat, By John Costello) The SSF will most form the space and cyber legs of China’s new strategic deterrent “triad” of nuclear, space, and cyber forces. Establishing the Rocket Force for nuclear and the Strategic Support Forces for space and cyber dovetails with China’s evolving national security strategy, and gives the CMC a clear line of control towards these forces, which will possess China’s most powerful military weapons.

Will China Become an Aircraft Carrier Superpower?
 (2016-01-21)
(Foreign Policy, By James Holmes) Flattops are more than engines of war. In peacetime, they are tokens of national commitment, useful for compelling, deterring, or reassuring in crises short of war. Deploying them to trouble spots telegraphs resolve, putting allies, prospective antagonists, and bystanders on notice that the leadership is prepared to use decisive force to get its way. Artfully employed, they awe outmatched opponents. What’s not to like about a carrier fleet if you’re Beijing?

US Might Sell Refurbished Harriers to Taiwan: Report 
 (2016-01-19)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) The US might offer to sell refurbished AV-8B Harrier Jump Jets to Taiwan, the magazine Defense News said. 
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
The Significance and Impact of Taiwan's 2016 Elections (Video) (2016-01-17)
(Taipei Forum) On January 17, 2016, the Taipei Forum Foundation and the National Taiwan University's Center for East Asia Democratic Studies co-hosted roundtable discussions on the domestic, cross-Strait, and international implications of Taiwan's just-concluded presidential and legislative elections.
-Implications for Taiwan's Domestic Political Developments
-Implications for Cross-Strait Ties and Taiwan's External Relations

Voter Turnout Was Lowest Since 1996
 (2016-01-18)
(CNA) Voter turnout for Saturday’s presidential election was the lowest of the six direct presidential elections since 1996, data compiled by the Central Election Commission showed.

New Legislature Leaves Gov't in a Bind (2016-01-19)
(China Post) Members of the Cabinet find themselves in the middle of an awkward impasse, following the landslide win of the Democratic Progressive Party in both the presidential and legislative races.
The Real Surprise in Taiwan's Election (2016-01-20)
(The National Interests, By Kyle Churchman) The DPP’s legislative victory is a milestone in Taiwan’s history as a democracy, which has been overshadowed by Tsai’s win.

DPP's Tsai Proposes 'Neutral' LY Speaker (2016-01-21)
(China Post) With the Democratic Progressive Party winning a majority in the Legislature, its self-declared next step is carrying out its promised legislative reforms, including discussing a "neutral" speaker.
Export Orders Down by 4.4 Percent in '15: Economics Ministry (2016-01-21)
(China Post) In 2015, the United States was Taiwan's largest export destination by country, with orders growing 6.3 percent annually to stand at US$125,953 billion. Orders from China and Hong Kong fell 8.9 percent to US$107.29 billion as their domestic supply chain continues to expand and dent demand for Taiwanese components.
Party Identification Tracking Analysis in Taiwan, December 2015 (2016-01-04)
(TISR) Taiwan Indicators Survey Research released its December surveyresults (in Chinese) on the public's party identities. The percentage of Taiwanese who expressed support for the KMT or other Pan-Blue parties rose 1.1 percentage points to 29.3%.
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey, First Half of January 2016 (2016-01-14)
(TISR) President Ma Ying-jeou's approval rating rose 1.5 percentage points over the first ten days of January, according to the latest Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey (in Chinese).

Nations Congratulate Tsai, Stress Cross-Strait Relations (2016-01-18)
(China Post) Governments around the world have congratulated President-elect Tsai Ing-wen on her winning the presidential election and praised the development of democracy in Taiwan. However, many statements also included messages indicating the importance of maintaining peace and stability between mainland China and Taiwan.
Keep the Diplomatic Truce! (2016-01-21)
(PacNet #9, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Dennis Hickey) Much more worrisome is Tsai Ing-wen's harsh criticism of the diplomatic truce and cavalier attitude to it. Some fear that Tsai might have been preparing Taiwan’s people for an end to the diplomatic truce and a return to the DPP’s “scorched earth diplomacy.”
Entering TPP ‘Immensely Advantageous’ for Taiwan (2016-01-24)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) Given all the strategic and security implications, joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement would be “immensely advantageous” for Taiwan, a new study said.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
China G.D.P. Growth at Slowest Pace Since 2009, Data Shows (2016-01-19)
(New York Times, By Neil Gough) The economy grew at a 6.8 percent pace in the fourth quarter — the slowest expansion since March 2009. For the full year, the economy grew 6.9 percent, just below the government’s target of approximately 7 percent.
Fears about China's Economy Fester at Davos (2016-01-25)
(New York Times, By Alexandra Stevenson) Fears about China's downshift, as its official growth slowed to a quarter-century low, have dominated high-level discussions, both during public debates and in smaller, private meetings.

Visualizing China's Anti-Corruption Campaign
 (2016-01-21)
(ChinaFile) “Catching Tigers and Flies” is ChinaFile’s new interactive tool for tracking and better understanding the massive campaign against corruption that China’s President, Xi Jinping, launched shortly after he came to power in late 2012.

Hong Kong's Missing Booksellers (2016-01-21)
(New York Times, By Lian Yi-zheng) A Hong Kong publisher specializing in books banned in China has disappeared mysteriously, sowing fear among Hong Kongers that the Chinese government is growing bolder about encroaching on their liberties.
Contact: Dalton Lin, Executive Editor
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