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1. Iran is Surrounded by US Troops in 10 Countries
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
Iran literally is surrounded by American troops, notes an oil market analyst, Energy and Capital editor Christian A. DeHaemer. There is no evidence of an imminent attack, but he connects a number of recent events and the presence of American soldiers to warn that oil prices might soar -- with or without a pre-emptive strike aimed at stopping Iran’s nuclear power ambitions.
Iran is bordered on the east by Pakistan and Afghanistan, where U.S. troops have been waging a costly war, in terms of money and lives, against Taliban, Al-Qaeda and other terrorists.
The Persian Gulf is on Iran’s southern border, and last week’s report, confirmed by the Pentagon, that 11 warships had sailed through the Suez Canal, raised alarm bells that the U.S. is ready to fight to keep the Persian Gulf open.
Iran has threatened it could close the waterway, where 40 percent of the world’s oil flows in tankers, if the United Nations or the United States by itself carry out harsh energy sanctions against the Islamic Republic. An Israeli ship has also reportedly joined the U.S. armada.
Kuwait, which is heavily armed by the U.S. and is home to American bases, is located on the southwestern border of Iran. The country’s western neighbors are Turkey and Iraq, also home to American bases, and Turkmenistan, the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan are the Islamic Republic’s northern neighbors.
The U.S.army last year advanced military cooperation with Turkmenistan. An independent Caspian news agency has confirmed unusually heavy activity of American troops along the border with Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Brigadier General Mehdi Moini said last week that his forces increased patrols, including tanks and anti-aircraft units, along the border with Azerbaijan because they noticed increased American activity. Iran charged that Israeli forces were also present, sparking a virtual war alert among the Iranian Guards.
In addition, the Times of London reported earlier this month that Saudi Arabia has agreed to open its air space for Israel Air Force jets, a claim that the Saudi monarchy denied. It similar denied Iranian news agency claims that Israeli helicopters unloaded military equipment at a northwestern Saudi Arabian air base, from where Israeli planes theoretically could reach Iran in the shorts possible time.
There has been no confirmation of Israel-Saudi cooperation from any other source, but one IDF reserve officer, who has been involved in secret military projects for private companies, told Israel National News that the it could be true if both countries found it in their common interests. Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel and has treated the Jewish State with disdain. However, the possibility of Iran's dominating the Arab world with nuclear power has changed all political scenarios.
Several defense websites have reported that Israel is deploying one to three German-made nuclear submarines in the Persian Gulf as a defensive measure against the possibility of a missile attacks from Lebanon and Syria, as well as Iran.
“The submarines of Flotilla 7 — Dolphin, Tekuma and Leviathan — have visited the Gulf before,” DeHaemer wrote, “but the decision has now been taken to ensure a permanent presence of at least one of the vessels.”
Amid the buzz of increased military activity around Iran looms the specter of higher oil prices, which is DeHaemer's field of expertise. “The last oil price shock in the Middle East was in 1990 when the United States invaded Iraq for invading Kuwait. The price per barrel of oil went from $21 to $28 on August 6...to $46 by mid-October. The looming Iran War is not priced in,” he warned in his news letter.
Iran has the third-highest oil reserves in the world and is second only to Saudi Arabia in production. If any action prevents the flow of Iranian oil, the price of “black gold” would soar, he added.
2. Barak Claims Leaving Lebanon in 2000 was a Success
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
Defense Minister Ehud Barak declared Monday night he is “proud” of ordering the hasty withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon in 2000. He also blamed previous governments and the IDF’s use of strong force in the Second Lebanon War for Hizbullah’s strength today.
In a speech marking 10 years since the withdrawal, when he was Prime Minister and Defense Minister, Barak argued, “The withdrawal was the end of a tragedy of 18 years [and] the question is why this step was not taken 10 years before.”
Barak also claimed he warned former generals not to enter Lebanon because of the possibility of facing another Yom Kippur War, “and that is what happened.”
Israel entered southern Lebanon in 1982 to protect northern citizens from devastating bombardments of PLO missiles. Following the deaths of approximately 300 soldiers over the 18 years in which the IDF fortified the security zone in southern Lebanon as a barrier to attacking Israel, Barak ordered a hasty nighttime retreat that left behind heavy military equipment for Hizbullah.
Six years later, contrary to military and media assessments that war would not break out, one by commentator Aluf Benn in Haaretz just four days before the war broke out extolling relying on HIzbullah head Nasrallah to preserve quiet, Hizbullah attacked the IDF and kidnapped and killed reserve soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, touching off the 34-day Second Lebanon War.
Barak explained that when he ordered the withdrawal, Hizbullah had 7,000 rockets but that “only” 4,000 were fired at Israel during the war. However, IDF intelligence officials during the war estimated that the terrorist organization possessed nearly 20,000 missiles gathered over the six years after the IDF withdrew. Barak also denied that the withdrawal in 2000 left a vacuum for Hizbullah.
“Hizbullah did not get stronger because we left, but because we already were there,” Barak stated, arguing that Israel’s presence in Lebanon helped create the terrorist organization. He also said that Hizbullah’s buildup of approximately 50,000 missiles since the war was a reaction to the “heavy blows” Israel inflicted on Lebanon during the war.
The Defense Minster, who also is head of the Labor party, had a brilliant military record but ran into difficulties as he neared the top ranks of the IDF and after he entered politics.
One of the most controversial accusations against him concerned the deaths of five soldiers in a training accident at an IDF base where he was criticized for leaving the scene immediately.
He catapulted to the position of Prime Minister by riding a media attack on Binyamin Netanyahu, who headed the government in the late 1990s. His coalition government failed 18 months after he was elected, and he was forced to call new elections. He quit politics after an overwhelming victory by Ariel Sharon, who then headed the Likud party.
Barak returned to the political arena in 2005 but failed to beat Shimon Peres for the leadership of the Labor party and returned to private business. He later re-entered politics again, winning the leadership of the Labor party in 2007.
3. Moshe Feiglin's Son Critically Injured; Prayers are Requested
by Hillel Fendel
David Yosef Feiglin, Moshe Feiglin’s 16-year-old son, is “fighting for his life,” listed in serious condition after being operated on Monday night in Shneider Children's Hospital in Petach Tikvah. He was hurt in a car accident near Alfei Menashe in the western Shomron on Monday afternoon.
The crash occurred as the boy was on the way back from his volunteer shift at the Alfei Menashe fire station, with three friends. The driver lost control of the car and smashed into an electric pole. David Yosef was seriously injured, while the other three were only lightly hurt. Another car in back of them was unable to stop in time, and the driver was lightly injured as well.
David Yosef Feiglin is currently being kept unconscious in Beilinson Hospital and on a respirator as the doctors consider continued treatment. The family has asked that the public pray for David Yosef ben [son of] Faige Perel.
Moshe Feiglin, a resident of Ginot Shomron, is a public activist and regarded by many as the leading spokesman for the Land of Israel sector. He founded the Zo Artzeinu (This is Our Land) grassroots movement in 1994 against the Oslo Agreements, and later established and headed the Manhigut Yehudit (Jewish Leadership) organization, which has since joined the Likud with the goal of “influencing from within.” Manhigut is credited with giving the Likud, and especially its list of Knesset Members, a more nationalist slant than it would have had otherwise.
In a fatal accident two days ago, 15.5-year-old Amitai Ron, a student at Mekor Chaim Yeshiva High School in Kfar Etzion, was buried in Gush Etzion after being hit by a car on Friday. Amitai, son of Jerusalem Magistrates Court Judge Alexander Ron, was hit by a car driven by a friend of the family, a son of IDF Appeals Court Judge Aharon Mishnayot. Judge Ron said at the funeral that he feels no anger towards the Mishnayot family, and that they will continue to be friends. Though the driver, a volunteer medic, treated the boy on the spot, the police recommend that he be indicted for causing death through negligence.
Tuesday morning, a 32-year-old pregnant mother from Beit El was killed in a car accident near the Halamish Junction in Binyamin, west of Shilo; her name has not yet been released. The Arab driver involved in the crash was lightly injured.
4. PA Asks Mitchell for 28 More Security Stations near Jewish Areas
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
Palestinian Authority security forces have told U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell they want to open 24 more “police stations” in areas in Judea and Samaria where Jews live and where security is shared with Israel, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported.
An Israeli government spokesman said he knows nothing of the report, and a spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy told Israel National News he stands by a general policy not to comment on the ”proximity talks” that Mitchell is mediating between the PA and Israel.
Israel has agreed to full PA control over security in several major Arab cities, such as Shechem and Jenin, where the police forces were trained by American military officers and are in effect a fledgling PA army.
The Oslo Accords officially prohibit a PA military, but PA police spokesman Adnana Al-Demiri, said the police "need to expand their authority." He complained that Israeli checkpoints prevent the PA forces from moving freely.
The proposed additional police stations are in areas where there are frequent clashes between Arabs and Israeli forces. Previous deployment of Arab police forces has resulted in several terrorist attacks carried out by PA policemen.
Opening roadblocks as “goodwill” measures for PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas frequently has been followed by terrorist attacks. One Israeli policeman was killed and two others were seriously wounded earlier this month near Hevron, where two key roadblocks had been removed earlier in the past year. However, IDF officers recently have praised the PA for cooperation with the army.
"We hope to agree on this plan within the coming few weeks," a source told Xinhua. Israel already has allowed 62 police stations through Judea and Samaria, including 14 in areas where Israel shares security control.
Abbas is waiting for answers from Israel on issues he presented last week to Mitchell, who is expected to return to Israel this Thursday.
Rumors of a possible three-way summit next month between Abbas, U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu were squelched by Ramallah officials. Yasser Abed Rabbo, secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)'s executive committee, told Voice of Palestine radio that the idea of a summit “was not even raised.”
He added that the reports "published from time to time by Israeli media are attempts to distract the attention away from the central issue which is the total cessation of Jewish settlement in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and launch a new serious political process."
Several Israeli media outlets, who often try to promote the formation of a new Arab state that would include parts of Jerusalem and all of Judea and Samaria, reported that American officials are pressuring for a summit.
The current American-mediated talks represent a step backwards for the United States, which shuttled back and forth between Israeli and PA officials 16 years ago before the two sides agreed to sit down face-to-face. The last direct talks were held in late December 2008, when Hamas missile attacks from Gaza prompted the counterterrorist Operation Cast Lead campaign.
Netanyahu has invited Abbas several times for direct discussions, but the PA leader has conditioned the talks on Israel’s announcing a permanent freeze on building for Jews in Judea and Samaria.
The PA has insisted that Israel accept all of the conditions laid out in the Saudi 2002 initiative and has adopted a strategy of creating facts on the ground that preclude negotiating any of the terms of the plan. The United States has adopted the Arab position that the Jewish presence in post-1967 Jerusalem is “illegitimate.”
5. Arab Nations May Be Waking Up Too Late to Climate Change
by Hana Levi Julian
While Israel is already racing to put water-saving measures in place to meet the challenge of a world with less water, such as desalination plants and specialized targeted drip irrigation agricultural systems, Arab neighbors are only now becoming aware of just how severe the blow will be when the crisis fully hits the region.
A report by the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) issued this week in Amman warns that Arab countries in the region are growing increasingly vulnerable to the potential impact of climate change.
The issues of rising average temperatures, combined with recurrent drought and water shortages are likely to be exacerbated by 2025, according to the report, thereby affecting the area's agricultural production and resulting food supply.
Scientists said that before the end of this century, they expect the water flow in the Jordan River may decrease by as much as 80 percent, and by some 30 percent in the Euphrates River as well.
In addition, the sea level is likely to rise in response to the change in climate, said the report, creating serious problems for the region's economy. The “Arab region” has a total of 34,000 kilometers of coastal area, of which nearly half is inhabited, the report points out.
Another concern is the specter of a drop in tourism due to harsher climate conditions: a rise of one to four degrees Celsius in average temperatures that could lead to bleaching of coral reefs, the deaths of various species of plant, animal and marine life and beach erosion were listed among the dire predictions by the authors of the report.
Red Sea resorts in Egypt and Jordan were identified as being most at risk, followed by Tunisia, Morocco, Syria and Lebanon. Recommendations included development of new crops that are adaptable to higher temperatures, more salinity and require less water, as well as promotion of alternative tourist destinations.
6. 1,000 Israeli Youth 'Ambassadors' Head to America
by Maayana Miskin
More than 1,000 Israeli youths will be leaving for the United States in the upcoming weeks to serve as Zionist “ambassadors” to American youth. The Israelis will work at Jewish Agency camps, teaching about Israel and Israeli society and culture.
They will disperse to approximately 200 Zionist and Jewish camps in North America, which are attended by a total of 150,000 children. The counselors have already completed their IDF or national service, and they looked to the Jewish Agency as a new way to contribute after fulfilling their mandatory service.
This year's Jewish Agency youth counselors were chosen from 6,000 who applied to work abroad. Jewish Agency chairman Natan Sharansky said young Israelis' willingness to contribute and to work abroad makes a significant contribution to strengthening Israel's ties with the Diaspora.
Jewish Agency camp workers said the relationship between Israeli counselors and North American campers is mutually beneficial. Counselors help the campers develop their ties to Israel and their Jewish identity, while campers help the counselors strengthen their sense of identification with the Jewish people worldwide.
7. Flotilla Inquiry Begins, Int'l Observers to Take Part
by Yoni Kempinski & Eli Stutz
The Israeli commission of inquiry into the flotilla incident on May 31 has commenced. The committee head, retired Supreme Court justice Ya’acov Turkel, in his opening speech, describing how the commission would act. Turkel said that the commission would include international observers, who also spoke briefly. Turkel said that the first action of the commission would be to summon the Prime Minister, Defense Minister and Chief of Staff. He said that while the government has not allocated a time frame for the commission, it would strive to reach the proper conclusions quickly.
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