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Consequences of the Fall of the Syrian Regime
We have entered the endgame in Syria. That doesn't mean
that we have reached the end by any means, but it does mean that the
precondition has been met for the fall of the regime of Syrian President
Bashar
al Assad. We have argued that so long as the military and security
apparatus
remain intact and effective, the regime could endure. Although they
continue to function, neither appears intact any longer; their control
of key
areas such as Damascus and Aleppo is in doubt, and the reliability of
their
personnel, given defections, is no longer certain. We had thought that
there
was a reasonable chance of the al Assad regime surviving completely.
That
is no longer the case. At a certain point -- in our view, after the
defection of a Syrian pilot June 21 and then the defection of the Tlass
clan --
key members of the regime began to recalculate the probability of
survival and
their interests. The regime has not unraveled, but it is unraveling.
The speculation over al Assad's whereabouts and heavy fighting in Damascus is simply part of the regime's problems. Rumors, whether true or not, create uncertainty that the regime cannot afford right now. The outcome is unclear. On the one hand, a new regime might emerge that could exercise control. On the other hand, Syria could collapse into a Lebanon situation in which it disintegrates into regions held by various factions, with no effective central government. Read More »
Comments? Send them to responses@stratfor.com
The speculation over al Assad's whereabouts and heavy fighting in Damascus is simply part of the regime's problems. Rumors, whether true or not, create uncertainty that the regime cannot afford right now. The outcome is unclear. On the one hand, a new regime might emerge that could exercise control. On the other hand, Syria could collapse into a Lebanon situation in which it disintegrates into regions held by various factions, with no effective central government. Read More »
Comments? Send them to responses@stratfor.com
