Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday 5 August 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Aug. 5, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
Bo Xilai Scandal and China's Leadership Succession
In Chinese Politics, a Fall—and a Rise By Bob Davis(Wall Street Journal, Jul. 28, 2012) Political fortunes can change quickly in China. This year, the fall of Bo Xilai appears to have given one of his longtime rivals an inside track for promotion to the Communist Party's top ruling body.
China’s Leaders Head to the Beach By Christopher K. Johnson(Foreign Affairs, Jul. 30, 2012) Chinese leaders are preparing for a once-in-a-decade turnover in leadership. This time, jockeying for powerful positions in the new Politburo's lineup could be more combative. And with the leadership preoccupied, policy confusion has become the order of the day.
Looking Ahead at Politburo Possibilities By Peter Mattis(China Brief 12(15), Jamestown Foundation, Aug. 3, 2012) As the 18th Party Congress approaches and Chinese leaders enter their final rounds of horse trading, recent personnel changes suggest the future of Chinese politics is starting to take shape both now and over the next five years.
South China Sea Disputes
U.S. Warns China against Further Moves in South China Sea
(LA Times, Aug. 3, 2012) One analyst cautioned that by singling out China at a time when several nations have been pushing claims, the Obama administration may confirm Chinese fears that it is strengthening security ties in Southeast Asia to limit the expansion of Chinese power.
China Rebukes US Diplomat for Sending ‘Wrong Message’ on South China Sea (Reuters, Aug. 5, 2012) China’s foreign ministry has called in a senior US diplomat to express “strong dissatisfaction at remarks by the US state department raising concerns over tensions in the disputed South China Sea.
A War Footing in the South China Sea? By Michael Austin(Wall Street Journal, Jul. 30, 2012) Beijing’s hardening of positions in the South China Sea is a problem for Washington, given its much-vaunted “rebalancing” to Asia.
China’s New City: Is This Beijing’s Pivot? By Robert Manning(PacNet #48, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Aug. 3, 2012) China’s establishment of a new city, Sansha, may have a larger strategic importance as part of Beijing’s response to the often touted US “pivot” or rebalancing in Asia.
China Pushes on the South China Sea, ASEAN Unity Collapses By Ian Storey (China Brief 12(15), Jamestown Foundation, Aug. 3, 2012) Far from assuaging Southeast Asian concerns regarding its assertive behavior, China has fuelled them by brazenly exploiting divisions within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to further its own national interests.
South China Sea: New Arena of Sino-Indian Rivalry By Harsh V. Pant (YaleGlobal, Aug. 2, 2012) China is boxing India into a corner, forcing it to defend freedom of navigation, international law, relationships with other East Asian states and its own credibility as a rising power.
U.S. "Pivot" and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Study Criticizes Pentagon Over Its Plans for a Greater Focus on Asia By Thom Shanker (New York Times, Aug. 1, 2012) An independent review assessing the Obama administration’s plans to move national security resources toward Asia, saying it insufficiently explained how it would shift military forces to the region and how the government would sharpen its focus on rising security challenges across the Pacific.
Australia Reaffirms It Will Not Host Any US Military Bases
(AP, Aug. 3, 2012) Australia rejected a proposal by a Washington-based think tank to base a nuclear aircraft carrier strike group on Australia’s west coast as part of a shift of US military might to the Asia-Pacific region.
US Hoping to Bolster Seoul’s Ties to Tokyo By Richard Halloran(Taipei Times, Aug. 3, 2012) Gently, but firmly, the new commander of US forces in the Pacific has urged the South Koreans and Japanese to find a way to get past the demons of their history to forge a new and productive security posture.
Diaoyutai Disputes Resurface
Taiwan Proposes Peace Initiative Over Island Row
(AFP, Aug. 5, 2012) Taiwan presented a peace proposal aimed at easing mounting tensions in a territorial dispute over an island chain in the East China Sea also claimed by China and Japan.
Navy Relieves Commander Over Drill Blooper
(China Post, Aug. 4, 2012) The Navy announced that it has recently relieved the post of a fleet commander who has failed to execute a drill as planned. The announcement came after the fleet was reported to have nearly intruded into Japanese waters, drawing attention and concern from the Japanese and United States militaries.
Cross-Strait Issues
Academics Butt Heads Over Talks
(Taipei Times, Jul. 30, 2012) Academics from both sides of the Taiwan Strait butted heads over cross-strait political dialogue.
Gov’t Mulls Cross-strait Offices Exchange: Council
(CNA, Jul. 31, 2012) The government has been reviewing relevant laws and regulations in preparation for the exchange of “overall offices” across the Taiwan Strait at some point in the future, the head of the Mainland Affairs Council said.
DPP Condemns Wu Po-hsiung for Silence at Cross-strait Forum
(China Post, Jul. 31, 2012) The DPP legislative caucus said that KMT Honorary Chairman Wu Po-hsiung had “sold out” Taiwan through his silence when Chairman Jia Qinglin of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference said that “the two sides of the Strait belong to one country, and cross-strait relations are not state-to-state relations.”
DPP Aims to Better Understand China By Su Tseng-chang(Taipei Times, Aug. 1, 2012) The key point is that the DPP thinks that, at a time when China is the world’s second-biggest economy and the fifth-biggest overseas investor, and given Taiwan’s close proximity to China, we have to know our opponents as well as we know ourselves.
Taiwan Opposition Leader Willing to Be ‘Flexible’ with China By Jenny W. Hsu and Aries Poon (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 1, 2012) Taiwan's top opposition leader pledged to reassess his party's traditionally combative stance toward Beijing but pressed mainland officials to make their own changes, suggesting the party will continue to grapple with how to treat the island's growing economic ties with China.
Su Denies Wanting to Be the First DPP Chief to Visit China
(CNA, Aug. 5, 2012) DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang denied that he wants to be the party's first leader to visit China and reiterated that the DPP will never change its belief in freedom, democracy and human rights.
Cross-Strait Pact to Detail Dispute Settlement Mechanism
(CNA, Aug. 1, 2012) Beijing and Taipei will detail multiple ways of resolving business disputes between private investors and the governments in a cross-Taiwan Strait investment protection pact, officials said.
Cross-strait Invest Pact Effective by Year-end: Official
(China Post, Aug. 4, 2012) Vice Economics Minister Bill Cho stated that a cross-Taiwan Strait investment protection pact is expected to take effect by the end of this year after ratification in the Legislative Yuan.
Military Balance and Arms Sales
Navy’s 2 New Minehunters Arrive at Kaohsiung
(China Post, Aug. 3, 2012) Two refurbished Osprey-class mine clearance ships that Taiwan previously acquired from the United States were delivered to the nation and arrived at a southern harbor, the Navy announced.
Taiwan's Foreign Relations
US Official to Visit Taiwan amid Trade Talks Push
(AFP, Aug. 1, 2012) US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs Jose W Fernandez will visit Taiwan on Sunday and meet President Ma Ying-jeou, the de facto US embassy said.
Taiwan Aims for Wrong UN Body By Ci-chun Hsiao and Jerry I-hsuan Hsiao (Taipei Times, Aug. 1, 2012) With the benefit of hindsight, Taiwan should perhaps have sought to join the lesser-known World Meteorological Organization to address its climate concerns instead of the more “fashionable” UNFCCC.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
Thousands Protest China’s Plans for Hong Kong Schools
(New York Times, Jul. 30, 2012) Thousands of people took to the streets to protest the introduction of Chinese national education in Hong Kong schools.
Portents of Change in China’s Social Management By Samantha Hoffman (China Brief 12(15), Jamestown Foundation, Aug. 3, 2012) There is perhaps a move toward some conciliatory changes to the way the government handles some civil unrest events, but this is likely to be an unusual occurrence rather than a policy shift.
Regional Issues and Japan Policy
Rising Peacefully Together By Jing Huang, Kanti Bajpai, and Kishore Mahbubani (Foreign Policy, Aug. 1, 2012) China and India are converging and have reason to cooperate, but three major issues still divide them: the border quarrel, the problem of Pakistan, and the fate of shared rivers.
North Korea Must Become Prosperous, Leader Says By Choe Sang-hun (New York Times, Aug. 4, 2012) The North Korean leader Kim Jong-uncalled for building a “prosperous country” in a major policy guideline published on Friday, a day after he told a visiting Chinese delegation that he was focused on “developing the economy and improving people’s livelihoods.”
Japan Flags Chinese Army’s Growing Role As Risk Issue By Kiyoshi Takenaka (Reuters, Jul. 31, 2012) Japan flagged the Chinese army's growing role in shaping the country's foreign policy as a security risk, saying a sense of caution exists across East Asia about Beijing's apparent military expansion in the region.
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Regards,
Dalton LinEditor, Taiwan Security Research
E-mail:
daltonlin@ntu.edu.tw
, Taiwan Security Research: taiwansecurity.org