Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday 26 August 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Aug. 26, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
Bo Xilai Scandal and China's Leadership Succession
With China Trial Over, Focus Turns to Fate of Official By Jeremy Page (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 20, 2012) The judgment is a key step in the party leadership's efforts to conclude its worst political scandal in more than two decades and paves the way for an announcement on how it plans to deal with Mr. Bo, the former Chongqing Party chief, according to analysts and Party insiders.
Chinese Politics on Trial
(Wall Street Journal, Aug. 21, 2012) Mr. Bo's downfall has allowed the Party old guard to remove a challenger and avert a power struggle, and Ms. Gu's trial allowed them to distract the world from the close call. The real lesson of this episode is how precarious the Party's rule remains.
In China, Gu Kailai’s Reprieve Reinforces Cynicism By Andrew Jacobs (New York Times, Aug. 21, 2012) The party’s carefully scripted trial of Ms. Gu appears to have prompted anger and cynicism from almost everyone here who paid attention.
South China Sea Disputes
Taiwan to Conduct Live-Fire Taiping Island Drill in Sept.
(CNA, Aug. 21, 2012) Taiwan has informed its neighboring countries that it plans to conduct a live-fire training exercise on Taiping Island in the South China Sea early next month, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Steve Hsia confirmed.
Vietnam Demands Taiwan Cancel Spratly Island Live Fire Drill
(Bloomberg, Aug. 23, 2012) Vietnam demanded Taiwan “immediately cancel” a live-fire drill on islands it claims as its own, according to a statement on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website.
A Code of Conduct for the South China Sea By Rodolfo Severino(PacNet #45A, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Aug. 17, 2012) When contemplating a Code of Condcut for the South China Sea, some facts ought to be taken into consideration and certain issues have to be resolved—or fudged—or, in any case, addressed.
The South China Sea’s Gathering Strom By James Webb(Wall Street Journal, Aug. 20, 2012) All of East Asia is watching what the U.S. will do about Chinese actions in the South China Sea. They know a test when they see one. They are waiting to see whether America will live up to its uncomfortable but necessary role as the true guarantor of stability in East Asia.
U.S. "Pivot" and Sino-U.S. Engagement
U.S. Plans New Asia Missile Defenses By Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 23, 2012) The Pentagon is particularly concerned about the growing imbalance of power across the Taiwan Strait. China has been developing advanced ballistic missiles and antiship ballistic missiles that could target U.S. naval forces in the region.
U.S. Missile Shield Plan Seen Stoking China Fears By Brian Spegele, James Hookway and Huka Hayashi (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 24, 2012) The U.S. decision to expand its missile-defense shield in the Asia-Pacific region, ostensibly to defend against North Korea, could feed Chinese fears about containment by the U.S. and encourage Beijing to accelerate its own missile program, analysts say.
Taiwan Stands to Gain from US Military Plans By William Lowther(Taipei Times, Aug. 25, 2012) Taiwan stands to gain significant military benefits if the US goes ahead with plans for a major expansion of missile defenses in Asia.
The Return of Dr. Strangelove By Jan Kallberg and Adam Lowther(The Diplomat, Aug. 20, 2012) With the prospect of sequestration looming, the United States may find itself increasingly relying on nuclear and cyber deterrence as an affordable means of guaranteeing national sovereignty and preventing major conflict between the U.S. and potential adversaries in the Asia-Pacific.
Diaoyutai Disputes Resurface
Anti-Japan Protests Flare in China
(Wall Street Journal, Aug. 20, 2012) Anti-Japanese protests flared across China, including in front of Japan's diplomatic consulates, as Japanese activists successfully landed on the disputed Senkaku islands in the East China Sea.
Ministry Summons Japanese Representative
(Taipei Times, Aug. 20, 2012) Minister of Foreign Affairs Timothy Yang summoned Japan’s top envoy to Taiwan to lodge a “serious protest” over a visit by Japanese activists to the disputed Diaoyutai Islands, the ministry said.
Dispute Over Islands Reflects Japanese Fear of China’s Rise By Martin Fackler (New York Times, Aug. 22, 2012) There is still little appetite in pacifist Japan for a full-blown confrontation with China. But analysts say consensus is growing on the need to stand up to China as power in the region appears to slip further from economically fading Japan and the United States.
Shifts in Asia Fuel Flare-Ups Over Islands By Yuka Hayashi, Brian Spegele, Evan Ramstad, and Alan Cullison (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 23, 2012) The late-summer flare-up in territorial tensions between Japan and three neighbors has been stoked by a shift in the balance of power in Northeast Asia, as well as leadership changes or contests in all four countries that complicate the impact of domestic politics on foreign policies.
Beating Up on Tokyo: Good Fun, Bad Policy By Brad Glosserman(PacNet #50, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Aug. 7, 2012) The evolution in Japanese security thinking is evolutionary: changes remain incremental and the bulwarks against a radical shift remain firmly in place.
Ma Says Taiwan Won’t Join China in Sovereignty Dispute with Japan (CNA, Aug. 22, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou reiterated the Republic of China's sovereignty over the Tiaoyu Islands but insisted his administration has no intention to join with China against Japan in the territorial dispute. President Ma Ying-jeou’s Interview with NHK (Chinese)
Japan Playing ‘Taiwan Card’ on Islands: Academic
(Taipei Times, Aug. 25, 2012) One of the messages conveyed by the timing of the recent interview with President Ma Ying-jeou with NHK was that Japan is playing the “Taiwan card” against China in competing claims of sovereignty over the Diaoyutai.
DPP Searches for New China Stance
DPP Should Be Pragmatic toward China: Yu
(China Post, Aug. 20, 2012) DPP should take a more pragmatic approach when dealing with China, including establishing a new department to serve Taiwan businesspeople operating in mainland China and making the department a second-track interchange channel with Beijing, top party member and former Premier Yu Shyi-kun has suggested.
Former DPP Premier Yu Expounds on ‘China Fever’
(Taipei Times, Aug. 21, 2012) DPP should table a set of well-thought-out China policies that have achieved inter-party consensus and pay more attention to other pressing issues related to the country’s economy, global competitiveness and people’s livelihoods, former premier Yu Shyi-kun said.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Release Chen Shui-bian: Ex-US Attorney General
(CNA, Aug. 21, 2012) Former U.S. Attorney General Ramsey Clark called for the immediate release of former President Chen Shui-bian from Taipei Prison on medical grounds after visiting him.
Take Action Now, Don’t Wait for TPP By Tung Chen-yuan(Taipei Times, Aug. 23, 2012) Ma has yet to take concrete action or make proposals for joining the TPP. So it seems the idea of TPP membership is more about politics than it is about the resolve to join.
Ma Argues Protectionism Will Hinder Free-trade Talks
(CNA, Aug. 25, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou said that protectionism still exists in both Taiwan's public and private sectors, and such a mindset will prevent the country from moving in line with the global trend of trade liberalization.
Romney Aide Affirms Taiwan Stance
(Taipei Times, Aug. 26, 2012) Mitt Romney admires Taiwan’s democratic society and does not believe that the US should abandon Taiwan, a campaign aide to Romney said.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
China Eyes Ways to Broaden Yuan’s Use
(Wall Street Journal, Aug. 23, 2012) China aims to turn a trickle of cross-border trade that is settled in yuan into a stream, with Latin America and the Middle East as the next possible focal points, Hong Kong's U.S. envoy said.
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Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 16:23