6 New Messages
Digest #4498
Messages
Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:18 am (PDT) . Posted by:
"Rick Rozoff" rwrozoff
http://www.ceskenov
Czech News Agency
September 21, 2012
NATO exercise Ramstein Rover in Czech Republic ends
Namest nad Oslavou: The aircraft that took part in NATO's Ramstein Rover 2012 air exercise are flying home from the air base in Namest nad Oslavou as it has ended, Czech exercise spokesman Zdenek Zeman told CTK today.
In the past two weeks, the pilots made 445 training flights, during which they were more than 1,000 times guided to ground targets, Zeman said.
There were no injuries or damage during the training, he added.
The training flights ended on Thursday when the German Lear Jet aircraft landed as the last at 22.40.
...
The biggest and most important exercise with foreign partners on Czech soil started on September 4.
Its main task was to harmonise tactical air force pilots and air controllers from advanced bases for the support for ground operations and to increase the skill of these specialists who are deployed in Afghanistan.
There were 600 Czech and 460 foreign troops and the aircraft from the Czech Republic, Germany, Slovakia, Turkey and the USA.
Zeman said the aircraft had been in the air for the total of 900 hours.
The planes were guided to the targets in the Libava and Boletice training grounds.
The air controllers were from 13 countries and 24 teams joined the fulfilment of the tasks.
Along with the Vysocina region, the exercise took place also off the South Bohemia and a part of the Olomouc and Moravia-Silesia Regions.
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Czech News Agency
September 21, 2012
NATO exercise Ramstein Rover in Czech Republic ends
Namest nad Oslavou: The aircraft that took part in NATO's Ramstein Rover 2012 air exercise are flying home from the air base in Namest nad Oslavou as it has ended, Czech exercise spokesman Zdenek Zeman told CTK today.
In the past two weeks, the pilots made 445 training flights, during which they were more than 1,000 times guided to ground targets, Zeman said.
There were no injuries or damage during the training, he added.
The training flights ended on Thursday when the German Lear Jet aircraft landed as the last at 22.40.
...
The biggest and most important exercise with foreign partners on Czech soil started on September 4.
Its main task was to harmonise tactical air force pilots and air controllers from advanced bases for the support for ground operations and to increase the skill of these specialists who are deployed in Afghanistan.
There were 600 Czech and 460 foreign troops and the aircraft from the Czech Republic, Germany, Slovakia, Turkey and the USA.
Zeman said the aircraft had been in the air for the total of 900 hours.
The planes were guided to the targets in the Libava and Boletice training grounds.
The air controllers were from 13 countries and 24 teams joined the fulfilment of the tasks.
Along with the Vysocina region, the exercise took place also off the South Bohemia and a part of the Olomouc and Moravia-Silesia Regions.
============
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Sat Sep 22, 2012 6:46 pm (PDT) . Posted by:
"Rick Rozoff" rwrozoff
http://www.thehindu
The Hindu
September 22, 2012
Russia strengthens role in Central Asia
Vladimir Radyuhin
Russia has consolidated its strategic positions in Central Asia by extending the long-term lease on its military facilities in Kyrgyzstan and securing the shutdown of a United States base in the former Soviet republic.
In exchange, Russia agreed to write off nearly $500 million in Kyrgyzstan’s debt and pledged to uplift its near bankrupt economy.
Under an agreement signed during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kyrgyzstan on Thursday, the lease of the Russian airbase in Kant and a number of other facilities has been extended from 2017 for a further 15 years with an option for a further five-year extension.
“Russian military presence in the region, both in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, is a significant factor in stability,” Mr. Putin said at a joint news conference with Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev.
A political declaration signed by the two sides reaffirmed Kyrgyzstan’s intention to evict the U.S. airbase at the Manas international airport near the capital Bishkek. Russia “welcomed” the pledge and promised to help turn the Manas airport into a cargo transit hub between Asia and Europe.
Under another deal, Russia will help Kyrgyzstan build and operate hydroelectric power stations in Kyrgyzstan at an estimated cost of $5 billion.
The deal will give Russia power to mediate in the acrimonious disputes between Central Asian states over scarce water resources.
Moscow has also promised to help Bishkek develop its mining industry and agriculture and to open Russian markets for Kyrgyzstan by granting it membership in the newly set up Customs Union of some former Soviet states.
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The Hindu
September 22, 2012
Russia strengthens role in Central Asia
Vladimir Radyuhin
Russia has consolidated its strategic positions in Central Asia by extending the long-term lease on its military facilities in Kyrgyzstan and securing the shutdown of a United States base in the former Soviet republic.
In exchange, Russia agreed to write off nearly $500 million in Kyrgyzstan’s debt and pledged to uplift its near bankrupt economy.
Under an agreement signed during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kyrgyzstan on Thursday, the lease of the Russian airbase in Kant and a number of other facilities has been extended from 2017 for a further 15 years with an option for a further five-year extension.
“Russian military presence in the region, both in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, is a significant factor in stability,” Mr. Putin said at a joint news conference with Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev.
A political declaration signed by the two sides reaffirmed Kyrgyzstan’s intention to evict the U.S. airbase at the Manas international airport near the capital Bishkek. Russia “welcomed” the pledge and promised to help turn the Manas airport into a cargo transit hub between Asia and Europe.
Under another deal, Russia will help Kyrgyzstan build and operate hydroelectric power stations in Kyrgyzstan at an estimated cost of $5 billion.
The deal will give Russia power to mediate in the acrimonious disputes between Central Asian states over scarce water resources.
Moscow has also promised to help Bishkek develop its mining industry and agriculture and to open Russian markets for Kyrgyzstan by granting it membership in the newly set up Customs Union of some former Soviet states.
============
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Sat Sep 22, 2012 6:53 pm (PDT) . Posted by:
"Rick Rozoff" rwrozoff
http://en.apa.
Azeri Press Agency
September 23, 2012
Turkey deploys military units along Syria border
Baku: Turkey has deployed military units along its border with Syria whose army is engaged in intense fighting with insurgents as tensions in the region escalate, APA reports quoting Press TV.
On Saturday, the Turkish army deployed artillery and anti-aircraft missiles near a Syrian border post in the province of al-Raqa, which is being disputed between security forces and insurgents in fierce clashes.
...
Turkey has conducted a number of troop deployments in recent months along its 911-km border with Syria, where rebels are fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad.
Ankara is accused of supplying insurgents fighting against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with military and communication equipment.
Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, has also set up a secret base near its border with Syria to send military supplies to anti-Syria groups.
Syria has been the scene of violence by armed groups since March 2011. The violence has claimed the lives of hundreds of people, including many security forces.
Damascus says outlaws, saboteurs, and armed terrorists are the driving factor behind the unrest and deadly violence while the opposition accuses the security forces of being behind the killings.
============
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Azeri Press Agency
September 23, 2012
Turkey deploys military units along Syria border
Baku: Turkey has deployed military units along its border with Syria whose army is engaged in intense fighting with insurgents as tensions in the region escalate, APA reports quoting Press TV.
On Saturday, the Turkish army deployed artillery and anti-aircraft missiles near a Syrian border post in the province of al-Raqa, which is being disputed between security forces and insurgents in fierce clashes.
...
Turkey has conducted a number of troop deployments in recent months along its 911-km border with Syria, where rebels are fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad.
Ankara is accused of supplying insurgents fighting against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with military and communication equipment.
Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, has also set up a secret base near its border with Syria to send military supplies to anti-Syria groups.
Syria has been the scene of violence by armed groups since March 2011. The violence has claimed the lives of hundreds of people, including many security forces.
Damascus says outlaws, saboteurs, and armed terrorists are the driving factor behind the unrest and deadly violence while the opposition accuses the security forces of being behind the killings.
============
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http://groups.
Stop NATO website and articles:
http://rickrozoff.
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Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:03 pm (PDT) . Posted by:
"Rick Rozoff" rwrozoff
http://news.
Xinhua News Agency
September 23, 2012
Top Chinese security official makes surprise visit to Afghanistan
KABUL: A top Chinese security official on Saturday made a surprise visit to Afghanistan, the first one by a Chinese leader in nearly half a century.
Zhou Yongkang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, arrived at Kabul airport late in the afternoon.
The four-hour visit had not been announced by Beijing due to security concerns. It followed a two-day trip of Zhou to Singapore, where he met Singaporean leaders on bilateral ties.
Zhou, who is in charge of security and justice affairs, had planned to go to Turkmenistan.
It marked the first time in 46 years that a Chinese leader set his foot on the soil of Afghanistan, a war-torn country neighboring China.
The last visit was made by late Chinese leader Liu Shaoqi in 1966 when he was the President of China.
...
The country is still the front line in the U.S.-led war against terrorism and undergoing daily bombing and bleeding.
In Kabul, Zhou held a meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
"It is in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples for China and Afghanistan to strengthen a strategic and cooperative partnership, which is also conducive to regional peace, stability and development,
Zhou said the Chinese government fully respects the right of the Afghan people to choose their own path of development and will actively participate in Afghanistan'
China and Afghanistan established diplomatic relations in 1955.
The two countries decided in June to upgrade their ties to the level of a strategic and cooperative partnership at a meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Karzai in Beijing, marking a new step for the development of bilateral relations.
============
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http://groups.
Stop NATO website and articles:
http://rickrozoff.
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============
Xinhua News Agency
September 23, 2012
Top Chinese security official makes surprise visit to Afghanistan
KABUL: A top Chinese security official on Saturday made a surprise visit to Afghanistan, the first one by a Chinese leader in nearly half a century.
Zhou Yongkang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, arrived at Kabul airport late in the afternoon.
The four-hour visit had not been announced by Beijing due to security concerns. It followed a two-day trip of Zhou to Singapore, where he met Singaporean leaders on bilateral ties.
Zhou, who is in charge of security and justice affairs, had planned to go to Turkmenistan.
It marked the first time in 46 years that a Chinese leader set his foot on the soil of Afghanistan, a war-torn country neighboring China.
The last visit was made by late Chinese leader Liu Shaoqi in 1966 when he was the President of China.
...
The country is still the front line in the U.S.-led war against terrorism and undergoing daily bombing and bleeding.
In Kabul, Zhou held a meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
"It is in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples for China and Afghanistan to strengthen a strategic and cooperative partnership, which is also conducive to regional peace, stability and development,
Zhou said the Chinese government fully respects the right of the Afghan people to choose their own path of development and will actively participate in Afghanistan'
China and Afghanistan established diplomatic relations in 1955.
The two countries decided in June to upgrade their ties to the level of a strategic and cooperative partnership at a meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Karzai in Beijing, marking a new step for the development of bilateral relations.
============
Stop NATO e-mail list home page with archives and search engine:
http://groups.
Stop NATO website and articles:
http://rickrozoff.
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============
Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:54 pm (PDT) . Posted by:
"Rick Rozoff" rwrozoff
http://www.nation.
The Nation
September 23, 2012
In the shadow of NATO-Kush mountains
By Adeela Naureen and Umar Waqar
"Nobody could have noticed in 1949 that NATO would be at the Hindu Kush in Afghanistan"
“It’s a political and moral imperative to fight for our core values in the Hindu Kush”: Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, February 2008
====
Intoxicated with notions of invincibility, US-led NATO came into the historical trap with slogans of ‘shock and awe’ and the Bush doctrine...Having smashed the rule of the Taliban regime and installing Hamid Karzai, the NATO commanders thought they had proven history wrong.
The fear factor is overtaking the US and NATO troops and officer cadre alike. The...ability to track each and every move of NATO can be gauged from the recent attack on Camp Bastion and targeting of British troops and aircraft on the birthday of Prince Harry, who after a controversial voyage to Las Vegas last month was performing his ‘Royal’ duties there.
NATO convoys and logistic bases are unsafe and the aircraft parked in hangars or taking off from Bagram and Kandahar or Mazar-i-Sharif are no surer of a safe landing or takeoff.
====
As the morning sun rays reflect across the lofty peaks of mountains overlooking Kabul and bring in the dawn of a new morning every day, the Hindu Kush range stands sentinel as it has watched Alexander’s army marching through the deep gorges and rocky deserts of Afghanistan and the British troops huddling back through the passes to India, as well as the Soviets crossing the Oxus River on their way back home.
The Hindu Kush has seen many foreign warriors and their kings and military captains of war coming and perishing in the land of the Afghans.
Is it a redoubt of history, an empire smasher, a shattered zone of superpowers, the abode of the Afghan spirit, or the enigma most misunderstood in the history of mankind?
It seems that the Hindu Kush and its Afghan people will always remain a mystery. Spanning the good part of Pakistan’s tribal areas and Afghanistan’s eastern half, the Hindu Kush draws its name from the power struggle that led to Central Asians colonising..
But the Hindu Kush and its people have the culture of freedom nurtured by nature and history over a period of a number of millennia. Irrespective of who tried to come here as an occupier, the Afghans have fought with the spirit of a tiger and the patience of an elephant; and made sure that the occupier leaves their land, lock, stock and barrel even at the cost of long wars and suffering of the Afghans and their children spanning decades.
Today, it is the turn of the Yankees and their cohorts to learn it the hard way. Intoxicated with notions of invincibility, US-led NATO came into the historical trap with slogans of ‘shock and awe’ and the Bush doctrine, and with an apparently benign role of liberators of Afghanistan. Having smashed the rule of the Taliban regime and installing Hamid Karzai, the NATO commanders thought they had proven history wrong.
Probably, they did not read the treatises and epitaphs of the British and Soviets engrained on the tombstones of erstwhile superpowers written with Afghan blood, despite having firsthand knowledge of the strength of the Afghan spirit in the Afghan jihad. The Hindu Kush today has become the NATO-Kush; the mightiest superpower of our time with the latest military technology and virtually with the support of the international community is packing up and preparing to leave the Hindu Kush mountains in disgrace.
The Afghan freedom fighters are everywhere, from the Camp Bastion of the Brits in Kandahar to the very heart of the green zone in the Bagram Airbase manned by the Yankees, and from the desolate desert of Herat to the lofty peaks of the NATO-Kush mountains. The so-called ‘green on blue’ attacks are becoming the order of the day. Despite denial of this phenomenon as individual acts by reactionary Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers, by Isaf’s senior commanders, it is a well known fact that the freedom fighters have already penetrated the rank and file of ANA through an elaborate strategy spanning the last decade or so; some Taliban sympathisers have reached the rank of colonels.
The current wave of ‘green on blue’ attacks is just the unveiling of a new strategy of the freedom fighters and is likely to play a major role in the coming days and months. The Afghan resolve for freedom from NATO’s occupation has been further strengthened by the Holy Quran burning by American troops in Afghanistan and the recent telecast of a blasphemous film targeting the personality of our beloved Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) in the US.
The fear factor is overtaking the US and NATO troops and officer cadre alike. The freedom fighters’ ability to track each and every move of NATO can be gauged from the recent attack on Camp Bastion and targeting of British troops and aircraft on the birthday of Prince Harry, who after a controversial voyage to Las Vegas last month was performing his ‘Royal’ duties there.
NATO troops have been given some strange orders and rules of engagement. Yesterday every man and women, boy and girl, old and young Afghan was a suspect and could be killed on the grounds of suspicion (less the ANA officers and soldiers); today every ANA officer and solider is to be looked on as a suspect with orders to shoot to kill. Today, the NATO soldier cannot sleep with his eyes closed; cannot move in his own camp freely; and cannot rely on the ANA soldier when he goes out on joint patrolling.
NATO convoys and logistic bases are unsafe and the aircraft parked in hangars or taking off from Bagram and Kandahar or Mazar-i-Sharif are no surer of a safe landing or takeoff.
The fear factor gripping NATO soldiers can be compared with the fear of British soldiers in the Second Afghan War in the late nineteenth century. Out of thousands of British and Indian soldiers killed by the Afghans in the Hindu Kush range and its subsidiaries, the surviving British stragglers were intentionally let out to go back alive and tell the story of Afghan revenge so that no British soldier would walk into the Afghan land with the aim of occupying it. History seems to be going in circles and repeating itself time and again; the Hindu Kush becoming NATO-Kush, reminds all future adventurers that Afghan land belongs to the Afghans and they hate any one sharing it as an occupier.
The article ends with some lines from Rudyard Kipling mourning the rout of the 66th British Regiment of Foot in the Battle of Maiwand at the hands of Afghans, which was fought on July 27, 1880. An' there ain't no chorus 'ere to give, Nor there ain't no band to play; But I wish I was dead 'fore I done what I did, Or seen what I seed that day!
The writers are freelance columnists based in Zimbabwe.
============
Stop NATO e-mail list home page with archives and search engine:
http://groups.
Stop NATO website and articles:
http://rickrozoff.
To subscribe for individual e-mails or the daily digest, unsubscribe, and otherwise change subscription status:
stopnato-subscribe@
============
The Nation
September 23, 2012
In the shadow of NATO-Kush mountains
By Adeela Naureen and Umar Waqar
"Nobody could have noticed in 1949 that NATO would be at the Hindu Kush in Afghanistan"
“It’s a political and moral imperative to fight for our core values in the Hindu Kush”: Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, February 2008
====
Intoxicated with notions of invincibility, US-led NATO came into the historical trap with slogans of ‘shock and awe’ and the Bush doctrine...Having smashed the rule of the Taliban regime and installing Hamid Karzai, the NATO commanders thought they had proven history wrong.
The fear factor is overtaking the US and NATO troops and officer cadre alike. The...ability to track each and every move of NATO can be gauged from the recent attack on Camp Bastion and targeting of British troops and aircraft on the birthday of Prince Harry, who after a controversial voyage to Las Vegas last month was performing his ‘Royal’ duties there.
NATO convoys and logistic bases are unsafe and the aircraft parked in hangars or taking off from Bagram and Kandahar or Mazar-i-Sharif are no surer of a safe landing or takeoff.
====
As the morning sun rays reflect across the lofty peaks of mountains overlooking Kabul and bring in the dawn of a new morning every day, the Hindu Kush range stands sentinel as it has watched Alexander’s army marching through the deep gorges and rocky deserts of Afghanistan and the British troops huddling back through the passes to India, as well as the Soviets crossing the Oxus River on their way back home.
The Hindu Kush has seen many foreign warriors and their kings and military captains of war coming and perishing in the land of the Afghans.
Is it a redoubt of history, an empire smasher, a shattered zone of superpowers, the abode of the Afghan spirit, or the enigma most misunderstood in the history of mankind?
It seems that the Hindu Kush and its Afghan people will always remain a mystery. Spanning the good part of Pakistan’s tribal areas and Afghanistan’s eastern half, the Hindu Kush draws its name from the power struggle that led to Central Asians colonising..
But the Hindu Kush and its people have the culture of freedom nurtured by nature and history over a period of a number of millennia. Irrespective of who tried to come here as an occupier, the Afghans have fought with the spirit of a tiger and the patience of an elephant; and made sure that the occupier leaves their land, lock, stock and barrel even at the cost of long wars and suffering of the Afghans and their children spanning decades.
Today, it is the turn of the Yankees and their cohorts to learn it the hard way. Intoxicated with notions of invincibility, US-led NATO came into the historical trap with slogans of ‘shock and awe’ and the Bush doctrine, and with an apparently benign role of liberators of Afghanistan. Having smashed the rule of the Taliban regime and installing Hamid Karzai, the NATO commanders thought they had proven history wrong.
Probably, they did not read the treatises and epitaphs of the British and Soviets engrained on the tombstones of erstwhile superpowers written with Afghan blood, despite having firsthand knowledge of the strength of the Afghan spirit in the Afghan jihad. The Hindu Kush today has become the NATO-Kush; the mightiest superpower of our time with the latest military technology and virtually with the support of the international community is packing up and preparing to leave the Hindu Kush mountains in disgrace.
The Afghan freedom fighters are everywhere, from the Camp Bastion of the Brits in Kandahar to the very heart of the green zone in the Bagram Airbase manned by the Yankees, and from the desolate desert of Herat to the lofty peaks of the NATO-Kush mountains. The so-called ‘green on blue’ attacks are becoming the order of the day. Despite denial of this phenomenon as individual acts by reactionary Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers, by Isaf’s senior commanders, it is a well known fact that the freedom fighters have already penetrated the rank and file of ANA through an elaborate strategy spanning the last decade or so; some Taliban sympathisers have reached the rank of colonels.
The current wave of ‘green on blue’ attacks is just the unveiling of a new strategy of the freedom fighters and is likely to play a major role in the coming days and months. The Afghan resolve for freedom from NATO’s occupation has been further strengthened by the Holy Quran burning by American troops in Afghanistan and the recent telecast of a blasphemous film targeting the personality of our beloved Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) in the US.
The fear factor is overtaking the US and NATO troops and officer cadre alike. The freedom fighters’ ability to track each and every move of NATO can be gauged from the recent attack on Camp Bastion and targeting of British troops and aircraft on the birthday of Prince Harry, who after a controversial voyage to Las Vegas last month was performing his ‘Royal’ duties there.
NATO troops have been given some strange orders and rules of engagement. Yesterday every man and women, boy and girl, old and young Afghan was a suspect and could be killed on the grounds of suspicion (less the ANA officers and soldiers); today every ANA officer and solider is to be looked on as a suspect with orders to shoot to kill. Today, the NATO soldier cannot sleep with his eyes closed; cannot move in his own camp freely; and cannot rely on the ANA soldier when he goes out on joint patrolling.
NATO convoys and logistic bases are unsafe and the aircraft parked in hangars or taking off from Bagram and Kandahar or Mazar-i-Sharif are no surer of a safe landing or takeoff.
The fear factor gripping NATO soldiers can be compared with the fear of British soldiers in the Second Afghan War in the late nineteenth century. Out of thousands of British and Indian soldiers killed by the Afghans in the Hindu Kush range and its subsidiaries, the surviving British stragglers were intentionally let out to go back alive and tell the story of Afghan revenge so that no British soldier would walk into the Afghan land with the aim of occupying it. History seems to be going in circles and repeating itself time and again; the Hindu Kush becoming NATO-Kush, reminds all future adventurers that Afghan land belongs to the Afghans and they hate any one sharing it as an occupier.
The article ends with some lines from Rudyard Kipling mourning the rout of the 66th British Regiment of Foot in the Battle of Maiwand at the hands of Afghans, which was fought on July 27, 1880. An' there ain't no chorus 'ere to give, Nor there ain't no band to play; But I wish I was dead 'fore I done what I did, Or seen what I seed that day!
The writers are freelance columnists based in Zimbabwe.
============
Stop NATO e-mail list home page with archives and search engine:
http://groups.
Stop NATO website and articles:
http://rickrozoff.
To subscribe for individual e-mails or the daily digest, unsubscribe, and otherwise change subscription status:
stopnato-subscribe@
============
Sat Sep 22, 2012 8:53 pm (PDT) . Posted by:
"Rick Rozoff" rwrozoff
http://www.nation.
The Nation
September 23, 2012
Afghan endgame - the variables
By Imran Malik*
====
How does the US further intend to “motivate or force” a bruised, thoroughly dejected and exploited Pakistan and its army into the North Waziristan Agency? And if it wants to land its boots on Pakistani soil, how does it expect Pakistan to react? Accept it as a fait accompli, ignore it passively or defend its territory aggressively? Will the US do it alone or will ‘all’ countries, comprising the US/Nato/Isaf combine, cross the Durand Line and attack Pakistan as one? Nuclear Pakistan’s and the militants’ reactions in such a scenario would constitute the biggest variables of the Afghan campaign.
[B]y bringing Pakistan into their fold, the Russians could have a sphere of influence extending from the Persian Gulf right up to the Malacca Straits and the Asia Pacific Region, including Iran, Pakistan and India. And the US will not have a single reliable ally in this entire swathe of Asian territory right up to Singapore.
Were Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and India to become full members of the SCO (on Russian initiatives)
====
The geopolitics of South Central Asian Region (SCAR) and AfPak Region (APR) are in a state of massive flux. The US/Nato/Isaf combine is primed to egress as it struggles, woefully, to retain balance in a fast deteriorating strategic and geopolitical environment.
And, ominously, Russia is making its moves to get into the most advantageous position in the region - post-2014.
The USA’s planned Afghan endgame appears to be going awry. To maintain strategic direction, it must consider the numerous variables in this complex Afghan equation and make the necessary corrections in anticipation.
The US Afghan Policy:
It has lacked clarity in its conception and execution. This confused and muddled thinking is evident, prominently, as the Afghan campaign moves into its end state. Major policy ends and objectives remain to be attained, while the bugle for the retreat has already been sounded. There have been strategic, diplomatic and intelligence failures aplenty. The obtaining strategic environment is profoundly unfavourable. Is this then the desired end state that the US and its allies had envisioned and aimed for at the outset? Will the US make the required course corrections?
The US Elections:
Will it be Obama and a continuation of the Afghan policy? Will Mitt Romney, if elected, opt for radical changes in the Afghan policy or not? The Afghans, all allies and all regional countries wait with bated breath.
The US Allies:
The ‘green on blue’ murderous attacks may force a strategic pause for the US/Nato/Isaf combine, directly impacting their withdrawal schedules. Any prolonging of the US campaign will not rest easy with them or their governments. How many of them will be willing to stick with the US for another indeterminate extension?
The Afghan National Security Force (ANSF):
It is the most critical variable. With ‘green on blue’ attacks on the rise, and joint operations with US/Nato/Isaf forces on hold, its development as a thoroughly professional outfit is in doubt. It has demonstrated suspect loyalties, poor professionalism and a penchant to react aggressively to perceived slights by its foreign trainers and colleagues. It has clearly been infiltrated by the Taliban or other groups, and shows signs of progressively biased, suspicious, volatile and deadly characteristics. Its emergence as a professionally cohesive and effective force, or not, will have a decisive impact on the egress of the foreign forces and the future of post-2014 Afghanistan.
Pakistan:
It must be the most worrisome and most unpredictable of all the variables. The USA’s handling of Pakistan could not have been worse, converting a most willing ally into a very reluctant one. The USA’s two-timing and double standards (Raymond Davis, Salala, OBL, etc.,) and its contemptuous, arrogant and self-righteous attitude caused the drift. Pakistan has also suffered from the persistent infighting within the Obama administration and the resultant conflicting demands of an ill-conceived and poorly executed Afghan policy.
The situation has been further vitiated by a plethora of ill-considered anti-Pakistan diatribes by some US congressmen. Resultantly, as we now approach the decisive Afghan endgame a thoroughly disenchanted Pakistan’s reticence and unpredictability has become more pronounced. The USA’s nervousness and irritability has increased correspondingly, as it cannot execute its endgame successfully without a willing Pakistan. They still have no clue on how to deal with a clearly annoyed and subtly defiant Pakistan.
The Militants:
The US policy lacks clarity on dealing with the militants too. It is still undecided whether it wants to negotiate with the Taliban, or bludgeon them into submission, or weaken them enough to force them to the negotiating table. By declaring the Haqqani Network (HN) a foreign terrorist organisation (FTO), the US has closed all doors to a negotiated solution to the imbroglio. Who will they now negotiate with? If they want to eliminate the militants, then do they have the time and the political and military will to do so?
How does the US further intend to “motivate or force” a bruised, thoroughly dejected and exploited Pakistan and its army into the North Waziristan Agency? And if it wants to land its boots on Pakistani soil, how does it expect Pakistan to react? Accept it as a fait accompli, ignore it passively or defend its territory aggressively? Will the US do it alone or will ‘all’ countries, comprising the US/Nato/Isaf combine, cross the Durand Line and attack Pakistan as one? Nuclear Pakistan’s and the militants’ reactions in such a scenario would constitute the biggest variables of the Afghan campaign.
Russia:
It senses Pakistan’s inevitability in any future geopolitical or strategic developments in the region. It also senses a vacuum in the SCAR and is positioning itself to exploit it. The US-Pakistan ‘non-alliance’ is not likely to last beyond the former’s egress from the region. The Russians sense a great opportunity here. By meeting Pakistan’s energy, infrastructure, defence and trade needs, they could try to replace or complement the US, albeit at a substantially lower scale. However, by bringing Pakistan into their fold, the Russians could have a sphere of influence extending from the Persian Gulf right up to the Malacca Straits and the Asia Pacific Region, including Iran, Pakistan and India. And the US will not have a single reliable ally in this entire swathe of Asian territory right up to Singapore. This is too big a prize for Russia to give up without a try.
By winning Pakistan over, the Russians could also get access to the southern routes of egress of the US/Nato/Isaf combine, the Arabian Sea, Iran, the emerging regional trade corridors and the mineral resources of the region. Were Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and India to become full members of the SCO (on Russian initiatives)
*The writer is a retired brigadier and a former defence attaché to Australia and New Zealand.
The Nation
September 23, 2012
Afghan endgame - the variables
By Imran Malik*
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How does the US further intend to “motivate or force” a bruised, thoroughly dejected and exploited Pakistan and its army into the North Waziristan Agency? And if it wants to land its boots on Pakistani soil, how does it expect Pakistan to react? Accept it as a fait accompli, ignore it passively or defend its territory aggressively? Will the US do it alone or will ‘all’ countries, comprising the US/Nato/Isaf combine, cross the Durand Line and attack Pakistan as one? Nuclear Pakistan’s and the militants’ reactions in such a scenario would constitute the biggest variables of the Afghan campaign.
[B]y bringing Pakistan into their fold, the Russians could have a sphere of influence extending from the Persian Gulf right up to the Malacca Straits and the Asia Pacific Region, including Iran, Pakistan and India. And the US will not have a single reliable ally in this entire swathe of Asian territory right up to Singapore.
Were Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and India to become full members of the SCO (on Russian initiatives)
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The geopolitics of South Central Asian Region (SCAR) and AfPak Region (APR) are in a state of massive flux. The US/Nato/Isaf combine is primed to egress as it struggles, woefully, to retain balance in a fast deteriorating strategic and geopolitical environment.
And, ominously, Russia is making its moves to get into the most advantageous position in the region - post-2014.
The USA’s planned Afghan endgame appears to be going awry. To maintain strategic direction, it must consider the numerous variables in this complex Afghan equation and make the necessary corrections in anticipation.
The US Afghan Policy:
It has lacked clarity in its conception and execution. This confused and muddled thinking is evident, prominently, as the Afghan campaign moves into its end state. Major policy ends and objectives remain to be attained, while the bugle for the retreat has already been sounded. There have been strategic, diplomatic and intelligence failures aplenty. The obtaining strategic environment is profoundly unfavourable. Is this then the desired end state that the US and its allies had envisioned and aimed for at the outset? Will the US make the required course corrections?
The US Elections:
Will it be Obama and a continuation of the Afghan policy? Will Mitt Romney, if elected, opt for radical changes in the Afghan policy or not? The Afghans, all allies and all regional countries wait with bated breath.
The US Allies:
The ‘green on blue’ murderous attacks may force a strategic pause for the US/Nato/Isaf combine, directly impacting their withdrawal schedules. Any prolonging of the US campaign will not rest easy with them or their governments. How many of them will be willing to stick with the US for another indeterminate extension?
The Afghan National Security Force (ANSF):
It is the most critical variable. With ‘green on blue’ attacks on the rise, and joint operations with US/Nato/Isaf forces on hold, its development as a thoroughly professional outfit is in doubt. It has demonstrated suspect loyalties, poor professionalism and a penchant to react aggressively to perceived slights by its foreign trainers and colleagues. It has clearly been infiltrated by the Taliban or other groups, and shows signs of progressively biased, suspicious, volatile and deadly characteristics. Its emergence as a professionally cohesive and effective force, or not, will have a decisive impact on the egress of the foreign forces and the future of post-2014 Afghanistan.
Pakistan:
It must be the most worrisome and most unpredictable of all the variables. The USA’s handling of Pakistan could not have been worse, converting a most willing ally into a very reluctant one. The USA’s two-timing and double standards (Raymond Davis, Salala, OBL, etc.,) and its contemptuous, arrogant and self-righteous attitude caused the drift. Pakistan has also suffered from the persistent infighting within the Obama administration and the resultant conflicting demands of an ill-conceived and poorly executed Afghan policy.
The situation has been further vitiated by a plethora of ill-considered anti-Pakistan diatribes by some US congressmen. Resultantly, as we now approach the decisive Afghan endgame a thoroughly disenchanted Pakistan’s reticence and unpredictability has become more pronounced. The USA’s nervousness and irritability has increased correspondingly, as it cannot execute its endgame successfully without a willing Pakistan. They still have no clue on how to deal with a clearly annoyed and subtly defiant Pakistan.
The Militants:
The US policy lacks clarity on dealing with the militants too. It is still undecided whether it wants to negotiate with the Taliban, or bludgeon them into submission, or weaken them enough to force them to the negotiating table. By declaring the Haqqani Network (HN) a foreign terrorist organisation (FTO), the US has closed all doors to a negotiated solution to the imbroglio. Who will they now negotiate with? If they want to eliminate the militants, then do they have the time and the political and military will to do so?
How does the US further intend to “motivate or force” a bruised, thoroughly dejected and exploited Pakistan and its army into the North Waziristan Agency? And if it wants to land its boots on Pakistani soil, how does it expect Pakistan to react? Accept it as a fait accompli, ignore it passively or defend its territory aggressively? Will the US do it alone or will ‘all’ countries, comprising the US/Nato/Isaf combine, cross the Durand Line and attack Pakistan as one? Nuclear Pakistan’s and the militants’ reactions in such a scenario would constitute the biggest variables of the Afghan campaign.
Russia:
It senses Pakistan’s inevitability in any future geopolitical or strategic developments in the region. It also senses a vacuum in the SCAR and is positioning itself to exploit it. The US-Pakistan ‘non-alliance’ is not likely to last beyond the former’s egress from the region. The Russians sense a great opportunity here. By meeting Pakistan’s energy, infrastructure, defence and trade needs, they could try to replace or complement the US, albeit at a substantially lower scale. However, by bringing Pakistan into their fold, the Russians could have a sphere of influence extending from the Persian Gulf right up to the Malacca Straits and the Asia Pacific Region, including Iran, Pakistan and India. And the US will not have a single reliable ally in this entire swathe of Asian territory right up to Singapore. This is too big a prize for Russia to give up without a try.
By winning Pakistan over, the Russians could also get access to the southern routes of egress of the US/Nato/Isaf combine, the Arabian Sea, Iran, the emerging regional trade corridors and the mineral resources of the region. Were Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and India to become full members of the SCO (on Russian initiatives)
*The writer is a retired brigadier and a former defence attaché to Australia and New Zealand.
