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War and Bluff: Iran, Israel and the United States
For
the past several months, the Israelis have been threatening to attack
Iranian nuclear sites as the United States has pursued a complex policy
of avoiding complete opposition to such strikes while making clear it
doesn't feel such strikes are necessary. At the same time, the United
States has carried out maneuvers meant to demonstrate its ability to
prevent the Iranian counter to an attack -- namely blocking the Strait
of Hormuz. While these maneuvers were under way, U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton said no "redline" exists that once crossed by Iran
would compel an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Israeli
government has long contended that Tehran eventually will reach the
point where it will be too costly for outsiders to stop the Iranian
nuclear program.
The Israeli and American positions are intimately connected, but the precise nature of the connection is less clear. Israel publicly casts itself as eager to strike Iran but restrained by the United States, though unable to guarantee it will respect American wishes if Israel sees an existential threat emanating from Iran. The United States publicly decries Iran as a threat to Israel and to other countries in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, but expresses reservations about military action out of fears that Iran would respond to a strike by destabilizing the region and because it does not believe the Iranian nuclear program is as advanced as the Israelis say it is. Read More » |
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