Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday, 2 September 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Sep. 2, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
Bo Xilai Scandal and China's Leadership Succession
China’s Hu Seeks Clean Power handover with Ally’s Promotion—Sources (Reuters, Aug. 31, 2012) Three sources with ties to the top leadership said Hu hopes to cut all of his direct links to the top echelons of power by early 2013, on the understanding that his protégé, Vice Premier Li Keqiang, is made a vice chairman of the military commission at the party's five-yearly congress later this year.
Ally of China’s Expected Next President Promoted to Key Position Ahead of Leadership Change (AP, Sep. 1, 2012) China’s ruling Communist Party promoted an ally of the country’s likely next president to a key position ahead of a party congress where a new generation of leaders will be named, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
China Plans to Cut Power of Domestic Security in Party Shakeup
(Reuters, Aug. 30, 2012) China's Communist party is considering downgrading the role of domestic security chief as part of a move to a new and smaller top elite, reflecting fears that the position has become too powerful, sources said.
Bo Xilai Issue Hangs Over China’s 18th Party Congress By Barbara Demick (LA Times, Aug. 30, 2012) China must be working hard on making the larger-than-life political character, whose wife recently confessed to murder, essentially vanish, analysts say.
China’s Coming Leadership Change Met with a Shrug By William Wan (Washington Post, Aug. 31, 2012) Among those outside government, talk of the transition is rare. Questions about the upcoming Party Congress are greeted with suspicion.
China’s Greatest Challenge: Not America, But Itself By Anka Lee(The Diplomat, Aug. 29, 2012) It is imperative that U.S. policymakers realistically assess China’s internal challenges if they hope to understand Beijing’s intentions and insecurity, its policies’ impact on the globalized economy, its relations with Washington, and, ultimately, what type of power it will be within the existing international system.
South China Sea Disputes
Legislators to Inspect Drill on Taiping
(China Post, Aug. 30, 2012) Lawmakers will be taking an inspection trip to the nation's island territory in the South China Sea for a live-fire drill to be held on Taiping Island next Tuesday, a legislator told local media.
Taiwan Seeks China Sea Peacemaker Role
(Taipei Times, Sep. 2, 2012) Taiwan is determined to become a peacemaker in the disputed South China Sea, National Security Council Secretary-General Hu Wei-chen said during a visit to Taiping Island.
U.S. "Pivot" and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Clinton’s Pacific Visit in Step with China
(Australian, Aug. 29, 2012) The visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the Pacific Islands Forum this week will be fleeting, but it’s more than a nod to China’s growing influence in the region.
Clinton to Cook Islands: US Cares (More Than China) By Peter Ford (Christian Science Monitor, Aug. 31, 2012) Secretary of State Clinton is visiting the Cook Islands as the South Pacific, long a strategic backwater, attracts new attention amid Washington-Beijing competition for regional influence.
Isle Spats Backdrop for Clinton’s Asia Trip By Eric Bellman and Brian Spegele (Wall Street Journal, Sep. 1, 2012) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is scheduled to tour parts of Asia over the coming week in what could be one of the Obama administration's last chances to address escalating territorial disputes across the region ahead of November elections.
Clinton Begins Asia Trip, Trying to Ease Tension with China By Steven Lee Myers (New York Times, Sep. 2, 2012) Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton began a 10-day, 6-nation visit to Asia pledging to broaden American diplomatic, economic and security support in the Pacific, but also offering conciliatory remarks toward China at a time when tensions are rising over territorial disputes.
Cultivating Tomorrow’s Asia Hands By Eric Sayers(PacNet #55, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Aug. 30, 2012) It is necessary for the United States to build a cohort of people that are deeply, profoundly knowledgeable about Asia.
Everything You Think You Know about China Is Wrong By Minxin Pei (Foreign Policy, Aug. 29, 2012) The United States should reassess the basic premises of its China policy and seriously consider an alternative strategy, one based on the assumption of declining Chinese strength and rising probability of an unexpected democratic transition in the coming two decades.
Diaoyutai Disputes Resurface
DPP Demand Clarity on Diaoyutai Talks
(Taipei Times, Aug. 28, 2012) President Ma said in an interview with CNA (video, Chinese) that Taiwan would negotiate with Japan about the fishing rights of Taiwanese fishermen around the Diaoyutais as well as the sovereignty of the disputed islands.
Japan Sends Letter to Beijing amid Tension
(Taipei Times, Aug. 29, 2012) Japan’s prime minister sent a senior diplomat to Beijing with a letter for Chinese President Hu Jintao in an apparent attempt to ease tensions between the two Asian giants over a territorial dispute.
Taiwan, Japan Have Dialogue Mechanism for Tiaoyutais: Minister
(CNA, Aug. 29, 2012) Foreign Minister Timothy Yang said that Taiwan and Japan already have a mechanism for dialogue on the disputed Tiaoyutai Islands in the East China Sea.
DPP Searches for New China Stance; Cross-Strait Issues
Tiananmen Leader Says DPP Needs More Time on China
(Taipei Times, Aug. 29, 2012) DPP needs more time to complete a more in-depth understanding of China as the party has yet to decide for any explicit policy direction for the country, exiled Chinese dissident Wang Dan.
Time to Rethink the China Factor By Yen Chueh-an(Taipei Times, Aug. 30, 2012) If the DPP goes on equating the China factor with the China threat, it may itself end up being equated with isolationism.
Taiwan Must Be ‘Wise’ on China, Lung Says in US By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Aug. 31, 2012) Taiwan must deal with its fears of China in a “wise and positive way,” Minister of Culture Lung Ying-tai said in Washington.
Taiwan Signs Yuan Clearing Deal with China, Creates New Rate
(Bloomberg, Aug. 31, 2012) The central banks of Taiwan and China signed a yuan clearing agreement as Asia’s biggest economy pushes the use of its currency in international trade.
Taiwanese Have Multiple Identities: Poll
(Taipei Times, Aug. 28, 2012) A majority of Taiwanese have multiple self-identities, a phenomenon which has been consistent since 2008, but an increasing number of young people identify themselves with China, a survey (Chinese) has found.
Chinese Tourists Boost Taiwan’s Economy By Sarah Mishkin(Financial Times, Aug. 31, 2012) Swiss bank UBS estimates that 2.3 million Chinese will visit Taiwan this year, up from just 300,000 in 2008. Those tourists are giving a much-needed boost to Taiwan’s economy.
Diplomats’ New Titles Won’t Upset China: Ministry
(Taipei Times, Sep. 1, 2012) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed concerns that its plan to formalize titles conferred on the nation’s diplomats stationed in countries who have no diplomatic relations with Taiwan could anger Beijing and cause unfavorable reactions.
PLA and Military Balance
China’s Aircraft Carrier: in Name Only By David Lague(Reuters, Aug. 28, 2012) Despite public anticipation in China that the Varyag will soon become the flagship of a powerful navy, defense experts say it lacks the strike aircraft, weapons, electronics, training and logistical support it needs to become a fighting warship.
Work to Begin Next Month at Patriot-3 Missile Sites
(Taipei Times, Aug. 28, 2012) Proponents of the Patriot system contend that the program is meant to deny Beijing the ability to engage in coercion by threatening limited missile attacks against key infrastructure to intimidate decisionmakers in Taipei.
Government Insists Nation’s Defenses Still a Priority in New Planned Budget (Taipei Times, Sep. 1, 2012) The draft budget signals a new era of development of the nation’s homemade counterforce weapons systems, showing that the Ma administration has not slackened in enhancing the nation’s self-defense capabilities when pursuing cross-strait rapprochement, a legislator said.
China May Attempt Invasion: MND
(Taipei Times, Sep. 2, 2012) The report was the first that has directly mentioned a direct attack, which it said could come after China amassed enough amphibious vehicles.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Ma Rejects Chen’s Medical Parole
(Taipei Times, Aug. 28, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou reiterated that the question of whether former president Chen Shui-bian should be released on medical parole is not a political issue, but a legal and medical one.
Taiwan Eyes Greater Role in Southeast Asian Economic Integration
(CNA, Aug. 27, 2012) Taiwan is hoping to play a greater role as Southeast Asian countries become more economically integrated with their northern neighbors, the country's envoy to the upcoming APEC leaders' summit in Russia said.
Foreign Ministry Thanks Republicans for Their Support
(Taipei Times, Aug. 31, 2012) Taiwan has expressed gratitude to the US Republican Party for its support, which is highlighted in the party’s election platform, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.
----------------------------------------------
Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 15:13