Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday 16 September 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Sep. 16, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
China's Leadership Succession
Communist Leader’s Absence Sets off Rumor Mills in China By Ian Johnson (New York Times, Sep. 11, 2012) The strange disappearance from public view of China’s presumptive new leader is turning a year that was supposed to showcase the Communist Party’s stability into something of an annus horribilis.
Off-Script Scramble for Power in a Chinese Leader’s Absence By Ian Johnson and Jonathan Ansfield (New York Times, Sep. 14, 2012) With still no sign of China’s designated new leader, Xi Jinping, who has not been seen in public since Sept. 1, many insiders and well-connected analysts say the Chinese political ship is adrift, with factions jockeying to shape an impending Communist Party conclave.
A Leader in China Reappears in Public
(New York Times, Sep. 15, 2012) China’s next designated leader, Xi Jinping, reappeared in public on Saturday, two weeks after mysteriously disappearing from view.
A Chinese Leader Returns Amid Tumult By Ian Johnson and Jane Perlez (New York Times, Sep. 16, 2012) The reappearance of Xi Jinping, a top Chinese leader who had vanished from public view, removes one question mark facing the Communist Party, but a wave of protests against Japan is a sign that internal power struggles are far from over.
South China Sea Disputes
China-U.S. Power Play at Core of East Asian Island Disputes By Carol J. Williams (LA Times, Sep. 12, 2012) Douglas Paal envisions a multilateral forum emerging under the guidance of a government far removed from the disputes, perhaps Australia or Norway, with expertise in good management of natural resources.
Australia Has Role in China Sea Dispute By Enda Curran(Wall Street Journal, Sep. 13, 2012) Australia has a stake in ensuring tensions over territory in the South China Sea don't boil over, and will look to balance the rise of China without threatening the role of the U.S. in the region, foreign minister Bob Carr said.
U.S. Pivot to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
A Glitch in the Matrix By Barry C. Lynn(Foreign Policy, Sep. 11, 2012) The United States should use its power to force corporations to distribute production capacity more widely. Such a move would reduce China's growing leverage over America -- and it would help stabilize the international system, economically and politically.
OZ Doubts U.S. Staying Power By John Lee(Wall Street Journal, Sep. 13, 2012) A White Paper entitled “Australia in the Asian Century” signals that America’s staunchest ally in Asia may be losing faith in the revival of the U.S. economy. If so, steadfast support for the alliance will not be far behind.
Panetta Set to Discuss U.S. Shift in Asia Trip By Tom Shanker(New York Times, Sep. 15, 2012) When Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta travels across Asia next week, on an arc from Japan and China to New Zealand, he will face two almost contradictory challenges.
China Wary of U.S. Military Moves in Asia-Pacific By David S. Cloud (LA Times, Sep. 16, 2012) As Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visits Beijing this week, the U.S. is forging closer defense ties to countries near China and renewing its focus in the South Pacific.
The Rise of the Middle Powers By Bruce Gilley
(New York Times, Sep. 11, 2012) Through proactive and nonaligned diplomacy, middle powers may be able to influence the rise of China in ways that the United States cannot.
Diaoyutai Disputes Resurface
Clinton Calls for Japan, China to Avoid Conflict
(AFP, Sep. 10, 2012) Increasingly tense territorial rows in the Asia-Pacific region threaten the global economy, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned at the end of an APEC leaders’ summit plagued by divisions.
China, Japan Leaders Meet amid Tensions
(Reuters, Sep. 10, 2012) Chinese President Hu Jintao said Japan should not make a “wrong decision” over a territorial dispute when he met Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda after weeks of tension between the neighbors, media reported.
China Accuses Japan of Stealing After Purchase of Group of Disputed Islands By Jane Perlez (New York Times, Sep. 12, 2012) The Chinese government accused Japan of stealing a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea, hours after the Japanese government announced that it had bought them from their private Japanese owners for nearly $30 million.
MOFA Recalls Representative from Japan
(Taipei Times, Sep. 12, 2012) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs recalled Taiwan’s representative to Japan in response to Japan’s decision to nationalize some of the disputed Diaoyutai Islands.
US Looks Forward to ‘Cooler Heads’ in Island Row
(CNA, Sep. 13, 2012) The United States looked forward to “cooler heads” prevailing among claimants to the disputed Tiaoyutai Islands in the East China Sea, a senior State Department official said.
China Irks Japan with Patrol-Ship Incursion
(Wall Street Journal, Sep. 14, 2012) Tensions between Japan and China escalated as an unusually large group of Chinese patrol ships entered Japanese territorial waters near disputed islands in the East China Sea, as Beijing tried to assert its sovereignty.
Japan’s Prime Minister Condemns Anti-Japan Rallies in China
(Wall Street Journal, Sep. 16, 2012) Japan's prime minister deplored the escalating anti-Japan rallies in China and emphasized his commitment to continue to assert sovereignty over disputed islets, but he also signaled his desire to retain healthy economic ties with Beijing amid Japan's sharpening economic slowdown.
KMT, DPP Pan Diaoyutais Visit Calls
(China Post, Sep. 16, 2012)Parliamentary leaders yesterday dismissed calls by some lawmakers that the Legislature send a delegation to the disputed Diaoyutai Islands to assert Taiwan's sovereignty over the islands.
The Senkaku Dispute and the US-Japan Securit Treaty By Yoichiro Sato (PacNet #57, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Sep. 10, 2012) US policy on the Senkaku dispute is perceived as ambiguous by its primary ally, Japan. This perceived ambiguity needs to be clarified to keep the US-Japan alliance solid. Meanwhile, carefully crafted language is needed not to undermine Taiwan’s position.
Ma Tells Gov’t to Seek Peace Support from Japan
(CNA, Sep. 14, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou told the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) to seek Japan's support for his East China Sea Peace Initiative for the peaceful solution of territorial disputes over the Diaoyutai Islands, a Presidential Office spokesman said.
Ex-AIT Head Says Beijing May Not Accept 3-Way Dialogue
(CNA, Sep. 13, 2012) Beijing might not want Taipei as an equal party in three-way talks if such discussions are held to address disputes in the East China Sea, a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan said.
Tokyo’s Fishery Talks Calls Show ‘Good Will’: Minister
(China Post, Sep. 15, 2012) Tokyo's positive statement toward President Ma Ying-jeou's East China Sea Peace Initiative and its calls for Taipei to resume fishery talks shows “good will” that may ease bilateral tension amid a recent row regarding the disputed Diaoyutai Islands, Foreign Minister Timothy Yang said.
DPP Searches for New China Stance
DPP Chief Launches China Policy Talks
(Taipei Times, Sep. 10, 2012) A forum on China affairs organized by the DPP is to begin tomorrow to launch a new round of party talks on what was seen as its “Achilles’ heel” in past elections.
Parties Urged to Tackle China As One
(Taipei Times, Sep. 12, 2012) A KMT-aligned expert in China affairs joined a DPP forum and called for cooperation in dealing with the powerful nation’s new leadership.
DPP Will Not Make Pro-China Policies: Chairman
(China Post, Sep. 12, 2012) DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang stated in a seminar that the DPP will never follow the Kuomintang's steps to make any pro-China policies, asserting that the KMT's pro-China attitude can never be a long-lasting view for Taiwanese people.
Ex-AIT Head Talks on Taiwan’s Future, Identity
(CNA, Sep. 14, 2012) Richard Bush said the DPP would be better able to defend Taiwan's core interests, “if it were to embrace the R.O.C. as a sovereign entity.”
Military Balance
Strait ‘Détente’ Is Unilateral, Critics Say By J. Michael Cole
(Taipei Times, Sep. 11, 2012) The nation has reduced spending on defense and is now acquiring non-combat platforms like excavators and rafts as China’s budget continues apace.
Testing Completed on Long-Range Air-to-Surface Missile
(Taipei Times, Sep. 14, 2012) Local military experts said the Wan Chien missile was mainly designed to strike airports and would help upgrade the Republic of China Air Force’s long-range strike capabilities.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Poll Shows Disapproval of Cabinet Members Is High
(Taipei Times, Sep. 11, 2012) A survey by Taiwan Indicator Survey Research (Chinese) found that President Ma’s approval ratings remained low at 21.3 percent, with 69.6 percent of those polled saying they were not satisfied with Ma’s governance.
Lien-Clinton Official Meet Marks 20-Year Milestone
(China Post, Sep. 11, 2012) Former Vice President Lien Chan had an official bilateral meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the highest-level talks between Taiwan and the U.S. in 20 years.
US Ready to Resume TIFA Talks: Ministry
(China Post, Sep. 11, 2012) The major breakthrough was reached after former Vice President Lien Chan, Taiwan's top envoy to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders' Meeting, met Sunday with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the summit held at Vladivostok, Russia.
Singapore Pact to Be Completed This Year: Lien
(China Post, Sep. 13, 2012) Taiwan APEC delegate Lien Chan stated that according to Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the bilateral talks over a free trade agreement between Taiwan and Singapore have made a significant progress and are likely to be completed by the end of this year.
St Lucia Maintains Ties with Taiwan
(AP, Sep. 14, 2012) The island of St Lucia has announced it will maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, surprising many who expected the new government to favor China.
AIT’s New Head Assumes Duties, Reiterates US Bond
(Taipei Times, Sep. 15, 2012) The new director of the American Institute in Taiwan has assumed his duties, the institute said in a statement, one day after Christopher Marut arrived in Taiwan.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
What Keeps the Chinese Up at Night By Gerard Lemos(New York Times, Sep. 10, 2012) A spiritual hunger has taken hold even as physical hunger has receded. Anxiety and resentment are turning people inward; the Chinese are being consumed by anomie, a listless sense that life has little meaning.

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Regards,
Taiwan Security Research: http://www.taiwansecurity.org/