Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday 23 September 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Sep. 23, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
China's Leadership Succession
Finalizing the 18th Party Congress: Setting the Stage for Reform? By Willy Lam (China Brief 12(18), Jamestown Foundation, Sep. 21, 2012) Barring any last minute changes, the new PBSC is expected to consist of the following: Xi Jinping (General Secretary and President); Li Keqiang (Premier); Yu Zhengsheng (Chairman of the National People’s Congress); Zhang Dejiang (Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference); Li Yuanchao (Head of the Party Secretariat and Vice President); Wang Qishan (Executive Vice Premier); and Wang Yang (Secretary of the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection).
Xi’s Back, Now Let the Chinese Political Battle Begin By Russell Leigh Moses (China Real Time Report, Sep. 17, 2012) The return of Chinese heir-apparent Xi Jinping demonstrates that the political hurdles he faces far more than any purported health problem.
Trial Begins for Police Chief in Chinese Scandal
(New York Times, Sep. 18, 2012) The trial of the former police chief who was a key player in the fall of the politician Bo Xilai began in secret on Monday in Chengdu.
Hints of Leniency for Chinese Police Chief By Jeremy Page(Wall Street Journal, Sep. 18, 2012) What appeared to be a lenient approach to Mr. Wang's case by prosecutors suggested to some analysts that the Communist Party leadership would take a harder line with his former boss, Bo Xilai.
Can the Frog Jump Before the Water Boils? By Didi Kirsten Tatlow(New York Tiems, Sep. 20, 2012) In other words, Chinese politics is full of pragmatists, like anywhere else, and the next decade will show if the frog gets boiled alive or if it hops out of the pot.
South China Sea Disputes
China Gov’t Seeks to Sooth Neighbors amid South China Sea Row
(AP, Sep. 22, 2012) China sought to soothe neighbors it has feuded with over territory in the South China Sea, a stark contrast to recent angry statements and violent street protests targeting Japan over a similar dispute.
Trouble in the South China Sea By Bonnie Glaser(Foreign Policy, Sep. 17, 2012) There is no doubt that China's behavior has been the most egregious of all the actors in the South China Sea, but to single it out for reproach without mentioning the provocative actions of other claimants damages U.S. credibility.
U.S. Pivot to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Obama’s Journey to Tougher Tack on a Rising China By Mark Landler (New York Times, Sep. 21, 2012) President Obama’s patience with China had been fraying for months, and by November 2010 he was fed up.
U.S. and Japan Agree to Deploy Advanced Missile Defense System By Thom Shanker (New York Times, Sep. 18, 2012) The announcement that the United States and Japan reached a major agreement to deploy a second advanced missile-defense radar on Japanese territory was met with immediate criticism in China.
In China, Panetta Says U.S. Focus on Asia Is No Threat By Thom Shanker and Ian Johnson (New York Times, Sep. 20, 2012) Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta declared that the United States was not trying to contain a rising China, and he stressed that with patience and effort current tensions between the giant rivals on opposite sides of the Pacific could be resolved.
After Long Absence, a U.S. Defense Secretary Visits New Zealand
(New York Times, Sep. 21, 2012) Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta arrived in New Zealand, becoming the first Pentagon chief to visit here in three decades.
Panetta’s Asia Visit Shows Balancing Role U.S. Hopes to Play By David Alexander (Reuters, Sep. 22, 2012) Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's week-long visit to the Asia-Pacific region helped deepen the U.S. military's strategic shift to the area, even as it illustrated the balancing role that Washington may have to play to maintain peace and stability.
Diaoyutai Disputes Resurface
Beijing Mixes Messages Over Anti-Japan Protests By Ian Johnson and Thom Shanker (New York Times, Sep. 17, 2012) Anti-Japanese demonstrators took to the streets again on Sunday in cities across China, with the government offering mixed signals on whether it would continue to tolerate the sometimes violent outbursts.
PRC Wants to Team Up on Island Row, Taiwan Lukewarm
(Taipei Times, Sep. 17, 2012) People on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should rise above their differences and seek cooperation when dealing with foreign affairs, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Minister Wang Yi said.
Asian Territory Disputes Could Trigger War: US Defense Chief
(AFP, Sep. 17, 2012) China and other Asian countries could end up at war over territorial disputes if governments keep up their “provocative behavior, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said.
Tokyo-Beijing Island Spat Puts Washington in Bind By Julian E. Barnes (Japan Real Time Report, Sep. 18, 2012) Analysts cautioned the U.S. must be careful in how it handles the crisis. If it forces, or appears to force, Japan to retreat it could weaken its major ally in the region and inadvertently strengthen China’s position.
US Says Japan Treaty Covers Diaoyutais
(Taipei Times, Sep. 22, 2012) Kurt Campbell said the Security Treaty between the US and Japan covered the islands, but added the US had no stance on their sovereignty.
Taiwan-Japan Fishery Talks Hope to Net Resource Sharing: Sources (China Post, Sep. 18, 2012) The next round of Taiwan-Japan fishery rights talks will put aside sovereignty disputes to focus on practical goals concerning the sharing and joint management of fishing resources, diplomatic sources said.
Dangerous Waters By Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt(Foreign Policy, Sep. 17, 2012) The wave of anti-Japanese protests that swept across dozens of cities in China this weekend, prompted by Tokyo's purchase of three disputed islands, has obscured a potentially more worrying development that risks drawing the two countries into a larger conflict: China's adoption of a legal framework empowering it to expel foreign vessels in disputed waters in the East China Sea.
The Sino Stranglehold By June Teufel Dreyer(Foreign Policy, Sep. 21, 2012) Suspension of trade would hurt China as well. Many Japanese products are made in China, and should these Japanese factories be unable to resume production, hundreds of thousands of Chinese would lose their jobs.
With China’s Rise, Japan Shifts to the Right By Chico Harlan(Washington Post, Sep. 21, 2012) Japan is in the midst of a gradual but significant shift to the right, acting more confrontationally in the region than at any time since World War II.
DPP Searches for New China Stance; Cross-Strait Issues
DPP Claims It Wants to Gain Deeper Knowledge of China
(CNA, Sep. 19, 2012) The opposition DPP is very serious in its efforts to learn more about the society, politics and economy in China, the head of the DPP's policy-making body said.
Former VP Talks to DPP on Benefits of Cross-Strait Deals
(Taipei Times, Sep. 20, 2012) Economic development should transcend party lines and political ideology, and Taiwan should transform itself into a “value-added island” to increase its global competitiveness, former vice president Vincent Siew said.
Su Warns of Region’s Shifting Power Balance
(Taipei Times, Sep. 22, 2012) DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang said discussions within his party, as well as policies concerning the rise of China would take into account the changing military situation in the Asia-Pacific region and would seek dialogue with the US and Japan.
Top China Affairs Officials Reshuffled
(Taipei Times, Sep. 20, 2012) KMT Secretary-General Lin Join-san will take over as SEF chairman. MAC head Lai Shin-yuan will be the new WTO envoy, while Wang Yu-chi fills her post.
Is Taiwanese Democracy Changing Chinese Students? By Cindy Sui (BBC, Sep. 19, 2012) Despite a feeling that Taiwan's governing system is not perfect, Chinese students’ understanding of and desire for democracy becomes stronger after living here.
PLA and Military Balance
Double Vision: Making Sense of China’s Second ‘Stealth’ Fighter Prototype By Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins (China Real Time Report, Sep. 18, 2012) what already appears clear is something far more significant for long-term Chinese military aircraft development: Beijing has finally decided that it can sustain multiple overlapping advanced programs.
Wen Chides Europe on Arms Sale Embargo
(New York Times, Sep. 21, 2012) Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said that China would continue to help the European Union recover from its economic crisis even as he sternly criticized the bloc for maintaining an embargo on weapons sales to his country.
Military Extends US, EU Ties
(Taipei Times, Sep. 18, 2012) The military will send personnel to the US to take part in a joint air transport and evacuation training exercise next year, according to the Ministry of National Defense’s budget report for next year.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Sean Chen Survives No-Confidence Vote 66 to 46
(Taipei Times, Sep. 23, 2012) Premier Sean Chen sailed through a no-confidence motion, which was voted down by KMT and two independent lawmakers.
King Pu-tsung Is New Envoy to the US
(Taipei Times, Sep. 20, 2012) Former KMT secretary-general King Pu-tsung will take over the position from Jason Yuan, who will assume the post of secretary-general of the National Security Council.
United States Approves of King’s Appointment As Representative
(CNA, Sep. 23, 2012) The United States has expressed approval over the appointment of King Pu-tsung as Taiwan's next representative to the U.S., Jason Yuan, the incumbent representative, said.
Reshuffle Aimed at Coping with E. Asia Situation: King
(CNA, Sep. 21, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou's decision to reshuffle his administration is aimed at dealing with the increasingly volatile and challenging situation in East Asia, the country's envoy-designate to the United States said.
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Regards,
Taiwan Security Research: http://www.taiwansecurity.org/
Taipei Forum: http://www.taipeiforum.org.tw/
Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 20:09