Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jul. 18, 2010)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Planned U.S.-S.K. Naval Drill and China's Reaction

Watch Out for China-US Tension at Sea
(Editorial, Global Times, Jul. 12, 2010) Tension is mounting over the US-South Korean joint exercise. Beijing and Washington still have time, and leeway, to desist from moving toward a possible conflict on the Yellow Sea.
Modernizing Navy for Self-Defense
(China Daily, Jul. 13, 2010) It is strengthening its marine strategy and its navy to protect its core national interests and not to pose a threat to any country. The People's Republic of China has never infringed upon any country's marine rights. On the contrary, other countries have violated its marine rights and interests repeatedly. U.S. Ships Could Move to East Sea for Joint Drill
(Chosun Ilbo, Jul. 13, 2010) South Korea and the U.S. are mulling a joint maritime drill in both the East and West Seas this month after China lodged a protest against a huge U.S. military presence on its doorstep.
U.S. and South Korea to Announce Joint Military Exercise
(Washington Post, Jul. 15, 2010) Over China's opposition, the United States and South Korea will announce military exercises next week when the U.S. secretaries of state and defense visit Seoul, U.S. officials said.
U.S. to Send Stern Message to North Korea By Phil Stewart(Reuters, Jul. 18, 2010) Victor Cha, a former director of Asian Affairs at the White House National Security Council under the Bush administration, said he expected that re-engagement will take a back seat to the main message of deterrence during the visit to Seoul.

Cross-Strait Issues

Ma Asks Wu to Carry Message to China Leader
(CNA, Jul. 12, 2010) President Ma Ying-jeou confirmed that he has asked Wu Poh-hsiung to pass a message to his Chinese counterpart conveying his hope for continued progress in bilateral ties after the signing of a landmark trade pact.
Analysts: China-Taiwan Trade Deal Strengthens Ties, Challenges Remain By William Ide (VoA, Jul. 12, 2010) China's President Hu Jintao has praised a new trade agreement with Taiwan, calling it an "important achievement" in improving relations between the long-time rivals.  But as trade between the two sides grows, analysts note that challenges remain.
US Analysts Urge Washington to Pay Attention to ECFA By Ko Shu-ling (Taipei Times, Jul. 15, 2010) While the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement will have modest global economic effects, the geo-economic implications are significant enough to demand strategic attention from the US, two US international economists said in a recent study. Deepening China-Taiwan Relations Through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement

U.S.-China Engagement

How Serious Is the Chinese Challenge? Part I By Bruce Stokes(YaleGlobal, Jul. 13, 2010) Possible scenarios for how China might apply its newfound power are countless, and responses from US, European and Asian neighbors could do as much, if not more, than China to upset the status quo.
How Serious Is the Chinese Challenge? Part II By Markus Jaeger(YaleGlobal, Jul. 15, 2010) Greater economic power will shift China’s way once it adopts a flexible currency and reduces dependence on US markets relative to US dependence on Chinese markets.

   

Military Balance and Arms Sales

Taiwan Still Needs Weapons from US, GIO Minister Says
(Taipei Times, Jul. 18, 2010) Taiwan still wants the US to approve further weapons sales despite a marked thaw in tensions between Taipei and Beijing, Government Information Office Minister Johnny Chiang said in Washington.

  

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Public Opinion on Government Image and Policy Implementation
(Research, Development, Evaluation Commission, Jul. 12. 2010) 46.8 percent of respondents were satisfied with President Ma’s performance, while 47.9 percent approved the Cabinet’s performance.
The Social foundation of Taiwan’s Future: Guns, Wheelchairs and Shark’s Fin Soup By Richard C. Bush III (Columbia University Symposium on Taiwan in the 21st Century, Jul. 13, 2010) Taiwan faces some difficult choices: how to maintain competitiveness in a globalized economy, how to assure both growth and relative equality, how to balance the desire for prosperity and the need for high-quality social services, and how to guarantee both a good life and national security.
Taiwan Eyeing FTA Talks with ASEAN Member States: MOEA
(CNA, Jul. 14, 2010) Taiwan has set its sights first on the members of the ASEAN in its bid to secure free trade agreements, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said.
Pushing for a Taiwan-US FTA By Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(Taipei Times, Jul. 16, 2010) Countless ties bind the people and governments of Taiwan and the US. The alliance which has flourished under the Taiwan Relations Act will grow even stronger with a renewed commitment to its principles and to peace and stability in the Western Pacific.
Lobbyists’ Merger Leaves Taiwan Out in the Cold
(Taipei Times, Jul. 17, 2010) Patton Boggs' takeover of the smaller Breaux Lott meant dropping Taiwan as a client to focus on the bigger firm's client — China.

China's Rise and Domestic Issues

Google and China Agree on a Fiction By Ryan Singel(CNN, Jul. 12, 2010) oogle got its Chinese visa extended, but that doesn't mean the company is having a good trip or that China's censorship has gone away.
China’s Renewal of Google’s License Offers Hope of Resisting Censorship (Washington Post, Jul. 14, 2010) Though China may still interfere when Chinese users seek Google searches from the Hong Kong site, Google's action has shown that foreign firms needn't give up every principle to do business inside China.
Chinese Factories Now Compete to Woo Laborers By Andrew Jacobs (New York Times, Jul. 13, 2010) In recent months, as the country’s export-driven juggernaut has been revived and many migrants have found jobs closer to home, the balance of power in places like Zhongshan has shifted, forcing employers to compete for new workers — and to prevent seasoned ones from defecting to sweeter prospects.
China Hopes Social Safety Net Will Push Its Citizens to Consume More, Save Less By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Jul. 14, 2010) The country's leaders want to persuade Chinese citizens to spend more and save less, a goal that analysts say could be achieved if the government provided a safety net. China Mulls Allowing Malaysia Ringgit to Trade Onshore – Sources
(Wall Street Journal, Jul. 16, 2010) The move is part of China's long-term goal of making the yuan a major global currency. Last month, Beijing widened a pilot project for using yuan to settle cross-border trade to cover 20 provinces and municipalities, from four cities in Guangdong province and Shanghai previously.

Regional Issues

Full Steam Ahead for China’s Territorial Ambitions By Peter Hartcher (Sydney Morning Herald, Jul. 13, 2010) In an assertive redefinition of its place in the world, China has put the South China Sea into its "core national interest" category of non-negotiable territorial claims - in the same league as Taiwan and Tibet.
U.S. Criticism of China May Overshadow Asian Security Meeting
(Bloomberg, Jul. 16, 2010) U.S. criticism of China’s military buildup may overshadow Asia’s biggest security forum next week after the sinking of a South Korean warship showed the potential for conflict in waters vital to world trade.