INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW REPORT
Nepal: Identity Politics and Federalism
Kathmandu/Brussels, 13 January 2011: Federal restructuring of
the state has emerged as an important commitment in Nepal’s
constitutional process. If the constitution is not promulgated in time
or a decision on federalism is deferred, serious unrest could follow.
Nepal: Identity Politics and Federalism,*
the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the
political challenges to the establishment of a federal system and the
risks if the process fails. The drafting of a constitution by the
Constituent Assembly and designing a new political structure present
Nepal with a chance to address many decades of pent-up grievance.
“Federalism is not simply the decentralisation of political
power”, says Jacob Rinck, Crisis Group’s South Asia Analyst. “It has
become a powerful symbol for a wider agenda of inclusion, which
encompasses reforms to guarantee ethnic proportional representation and a
redefinition of Nepali nationalism to recognise ethnic and cultural
diversity”.
But of the three major parties, the Maoists are the only one to
give full-throated support to federalism and the establishment of ethnic
provinces; their credibility as a force for change depends on it. Both
the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified
Marxist-Leninist) have agreed to federalism in the spirit of bargaining;
neither of them owns the agenda. Behind the official positions there is
significant resistance, backed by substantial popular opposition to
ethnic federalism in particular. Many fear they will lose out from
reforms.
Deferring crucial decisions on federalism, or stalling the
constitutional process altogether, could be tempting for those opposed
to change. The risks are hard to calculate. A failure to address the
core demands of ethnic and regional activists will resonate widely with
communities in the eastern hills and the central and eastern Tarai. In
both areas, the confluence of widespread politicisation and established
networks of increasingly frustrated activists could lead to serious
unrest.
“The structure emerging from the Constituent Assembly, federal
but with a strong centre, offers a feasible compromise”, says Robert
Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director. “Official recognition for
Nepal’s cultural diversity, language rights and representation in state
bodies would meet major aspirations of excluded communities, while
strong individual rights provisions would assure those who fear future
domination in ‘ethnic’ provinces”.
