INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW REPORT
China and Inter-Korean Clashes in the Yellow Sea
Beijing/Seoul/Brussels, 27 January 2011: China is undermining its own security interests by downplaying North Korea’s deadly provocations in the Yellow Sea.
China and Inter-Korean Clashes in the Yellow Sea,
the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines
Beijing’s ambivalent responses to the Ch’ŏnan sinking and Yŏnp’yŏng
Island shelling and its deepened political, economic and military
relationship with North Korea. It warns of increasing tensions in North
East Asia as South Korea and Japan strengthen their military alliances
with the U.S. and consider expanding their missile defense systems to
counter the security threat from North Korea.
“China’s refusal to hold Pyongyang to account for its deadly
attacks on South Korea prevents a unified international response”, says
Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Crisis Group’s North East Asia Project
Director. “It invites further North Korean military and nuclear
provocations and the increased militarisation of North East Asia”.
Beijing’s concerns about stability in North Korea have deepened
since 2009, following reports of Kim Jong-Il’s failing health, a
disastrous currency reform and uncertainties surrounding leadership
transition. It hopes that its increased support for Pyongyang during
the succession process will result in closer political ties and make
the next generation of leaders more amenable to Chinese-style economic
reform. The approach to the North is also powerfully shaped by rising
concern about a perceived U.S. strategic return to Asia and opposition
to greater American regional military and political presence.
Initially China downplayed the Yŏnp’yŏng Island shelling and
criticised U.S. military deployment and exercises with allies in North
East Asia. However, the subsequent spike in inter-Korean tensions
altered its threat perception and led it ultimately to tone down
criticism of the U.S., send an envoy to Pyongyang and join with
Washington in calling for talks between the North and South and
expressing concern at North Korea’s uranium enrichment program. The
joint statement signed by Presidents Hu and Obama during the Chinese
leader’s Washington visit on 19 January was welcome, but its practical
effect remains to be seen, since China continues to shield Pyongyang and
support it politically and economically.
“Beijing’s responses to the deadly clashes in the Yellow Sea are a
test of its willingness to act as a responsible stakeholder in regional
security”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director.
“China’s influence in Pyongyang makes it crucial for international
efforts to address North Korea, but its policy of supporting the
government instead of holding it to account heightens the risk of
further military and nuclear provocations”.
