The Intersection of Three Crises
By Reva Bhalla
Within the past two weeks, a cease-fire roadmap was agreed upon in Minsk, a temporary deal to keep Greece in the eurozone was reached in Brussels, and U.S. and Iranian negotiators advanced a potential nuclear deal in Geneva. Squadrons of diplomats have forestalled one geopolitical crisis after another. Yet it would be premature, even reckless, to assume that the fault lines defining these issues are effectively stable. Understanding how these crises are linked inextricably is the first step toward assessing when and where the next flare-up is likely to occur.
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Germany and the Eurozone Crisis
Germany has once again become the victim of its own power. As Europe's largest creditor, Germany has considerable political leverage over debtor nations like Greece, whose entire livelihood now depends on whether Chancellor Angela Merkel is willing to sign another bailout check. Lest we forget, Germany is exporting more than half of its GDP, and most of those exports are consumed within Europe. Thus, the institutions that Germany relies on to protect its export markets are the very institutions that Berlin must battle to protect German national wealth.
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