Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Monday 6 July 2015

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2015-07-06 | NO.19(27) epaper |
South China Sea Disputes and Other Regional Issues
Who Is the Biggest Aggressor in the South China Sea? (A Rejoinder) (2015-06-21)
(The Diplomat, By Carl Thayer) China’s track record in the South China Sea is markedly different from those of the other claimants. 
Related:
-Who Is the Biggest Aggressor in the South China Sea?
Japan Open to Joining U.S. in South China Sea Patrols (2015-06-25)
(Wall Street Journal, By Yuka Hayashi) Japan’s military would consider joining U.S. forces in regular patrols in the South China Sea, the nation’s top uniformed officer said, underscoring how China’s territorial claims are encouraging Tokyo to play a greater role in regional security.

China's HD-981 Oil Rig Returns, Near Disputed South China Sea Waters (2015-06-27)
(The Diplomat, By Ankit Panda) In an unexpected development, China’s Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil rig is back in contested waters.
Regional Divisions Simmer Beneath the Surface at Shangri-La  (2015-06-10)
(PacNet #34, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Evelyn Goh) If this trend continues, Asia risks developing separate sets of multilateral security dialogues, one dominated by the US and the other by China, with each set talking in parallel and past each other. This trend is especially worrying given current tensions in the South China Sea.
U.S. “Pivot” to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
The Impossible Price of a U.S.-China Grand Bargain: Dumping Taiwan (2015-06-24)
(The National Interest, By Denny Roy) The case for abandoning Taiwan typically meets at least three large barriers: the betrayal of U.S. ideals, harm to America’s reputation as a reliable security partner, and Taiwan’s strategic value.

Pentagon Sees Risk of War Increasing
 (2015-07-03)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) The Pentagon this week updated its National Military Strategy for the first time in four years, warning that the probability of a major war was growing. 
Cross-Strait Issues
Visa-Exempt Travel for Mainland-bound Travelers Begins (2015-07-02)
(China Post) Mainland China authorities removed entry permit requirements for Taiwan nationals.

MAC to Protest Over PRC's New Security Law (2015-07-02)
(Taipei Times) China’s adoption of a new national security law that codified the inclusion of Taiwan was “very impolite behavior” toward Taiwan, MAC Minister Andrew Hsia said, adding that the council would lodge a formal protest with Beijing.
Cross-Strait Flights Increase to 890 Per Week, No Start Date Yet Agreed Upon (2015-07-04)
(CNA) The aviation authorities of Taiwan and mainland China have decided to boost the number of regularly scheduled nonstop flights across the Taiwan Strait to 890 per week from the current 840, the Civil Aeronautics Administration said.
Hung Elaborates Cross-Strait Formula (2015-07-04)
(Taipei Times) Hung said ‘one China, same interpretation’ aims for China to recognize the ROC government, not the ROC. Ma said it is no different from the ‘1992 consensus.’
PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales
China's New Military Strategy: “Winning Informationalized Local Wars” (2015-06-23)
(China Brief 15(13), Jamestown Foundation, By M. Taylor Fravel) The new guidelines shift the goal of China’s military strategy from “winning local wars under the conditions of informationization” to “winning informationized local wars.” The change in the strategic guidelines reflects an evolution of the existing strategy, not a dramatic departure.

Nuclear Policy Issues in the 2013 Edition of the Science of Military Strategy: Part 2 on PLA Second Artillery Force (PLASAF) Strategy and Capabilities
 (2015-07-02)
(China Brief 15(13), Jamestown Foundation, By Michael S. Chase) SMS 2013 contains a detailed section on PLASAF strategy that also touches on PLASAF roles and responsibilities and force modernization requirements. Notably, the discussion of force modernization requirements in SMS 2013 appears to track very closely with the assessment of PLASAF capabilities that appears in the most recent U.S. Department of Defense report on Chinese military power.
Chinese Military Develops ‘Midget’ Sub: Reports (2015-07-01)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) Satellite evidence indicating that China has built a “midget” submarine at its Wuchang shipyard in Wuhan might be of particular concern to Taiwan, analysts said.
Congress Wants the Pentagon to Empower Taiwan (2015-06-29)
(The National Interest, By Claire Chu) The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2016 (H.R. 1735) includes several provisions and clauses that express support for greater U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation in the interest of maintaining security, expanding prosperity, and supporting common values. 
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Support for Tsai Growing: Poll (2015-06-30)
(Taipei Times) Support for DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen rose again to 47.7 percent after her likely rival, KMT presidential hopeful Hung Hsiu-chu, earlier this month cleared a hurdle to becoming the party’s nominee, a survey showed.
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey, Second Half of June 2015 (2015-06-29)
(TISR) President Ma Ying-jeou's approval rating jumped 6 percentage points over the latter part of June, according to the latest Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey (in Chinese).

MOFA, Japan Talk Over Celebration Compaint
 (2015-07-01)
(China Post) A recent Japanese media report that said the Japanese representative office in Taiwan is not happy with the holding of Second Sino-Japanese War victory commemorative events.
Japanese ‘Victory Decal’ Flags Removed from Fighters (2015-07-01)
(China Post) R.O.C. Air Force jets painted with Japanese flags to denote the number of victories over Japanese fighters during World War II have been removed, the Ministry of National Defense said.
Japanese Military Representative Attends Display (2015-07-05)
(China Post) A military representative at Japan's de facto embassy in Taiwan attended an R.O.C. Armed Forces military display as a special guest to mark the 70th anniversary of the R.O.C.'s victory over Japan in the Second Sino-Japanese War.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
Xi Hosts 56 Nations at Founding of Asian Infrastructure Bank (2015-06-30)
(New York Times, By Jane Perlez) At a ceremony imbued with quiet triumph at the Great Hall of the People, China’s president, Xi Jinping, hosted 56 member countries for the founding of a Chinese-led infrastructure bank for Asia, including major American allies from Asia and Europe that Washington had counseled not to join the bank.

MAC Says Sovereignty Key to AIIB Bid
 (2015-07-01)
(Taipei Times) The government will not apply for membership in the AIIB if Beijing insists that Taiwan is subject to an article relating to applicants without sovereignty or rights to exercise external relations, the Mainland Affairs Council said.

Taiwan Will Join China-Led AIIB under “Chinese Taipei” Name or Not At All: Ma (2015-07-05)
(Taipei Times) President Ma Ying-jeou reiterated that the name Taiwan uses to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is at the heart of whether the nation will participate in the financial institution or not.
China Approves Sweeping Security Law, Bolstering Communist Rule (2015-07-02)
(New York Times, By Edward Wong) The Chinese government announced that it had enacted a new national security law, one that amounts to a sweeping command from President Xi Jinping to maintain the primacy of Communist Party rule across all aspects of society.
Security Law Suggests a Broadening of China's ‘Core Interests’ (2015-07-03)
(New York Times, By Edward Wong) Some scholars say that the much wider, more abstract definition of China's "core interests" has made the term increasingly meaningless in diplomatic talks.
Contact: Dalton Lin, Executive Editor
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