Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Nov. 27, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

America's Pacific Century--Assessment

America Pivots toward ASEAN By Donald K Emmerson(Asia Times, Nov. 23, 2011) Southeast Asians here have not written off the United States. But they have, to a modest extent, written it down - and they could, in future, depending on events, write it back up. Indeed that upward tick may already have begun here in Bali with the first-ever presence of an American president, Barack Obama, at the EAS.

Obama’s Plan for America’s Pacific Century By Stewart M. Patrick(Foreign Affairs, Nov. 25, 2011) The past week suggested the United States has much to gain diplomatically by outlining a future for Asia-Pacific order based on adherence to common multilateral principles. Like the U.S.-European Atlantic Charter of 1941, a “Pacific Charter” could help establish the U.S. as an Eastern power.

Whose Century, the 21st? By Pierre Buhler(New York Times, Nov. 25, 2011) While post-World War II America secured its position in Europe through what resources it could muster, credit-worthiness and cutting-edge competitiveness, the America of today is a heavily indebted country paralyzed by political gridlock and burdened by low competitiveness in the tradable sector.

How China Can Defeat America By Yan Xuetong(New York Times, Nov. 21, 2011) The fragmentation of the pre-Qin era resembles the global divisions of our times, and the prescriptions provided by political theorists from that era are directly relevant today — namely that states relying on military or economic power without concern for morally informed leadership are bound to fail.

Cross-Strait Issues

Meeting in Shanghai Reaches Consensus on Cross-Strait Bank Issues (CNA, Nov. 24, 2011) A Taiwanese delegation led by Chen Yuh-chang, chairman of the Financial Supervisory Commission reached consensus with Chinese officials at a meeting in Beijing on several banking issues.

Sino-U.S. Engagement

China, US Grapple with Disputes at Back-to- Back Trade Summits
(Reuters, Nov. 21, 2011) Chinese and U.S. officials started meeting on Sunday to grapple with trade disputes that have strained ties between the world's two biggest economies, carrying forward concerns exchanged between leaders at back-to-back Asian summits in the past week.

PLA and Military Balance

China Defends Naval Drills in Western Pacific
(VOA, Nov. 24, 2011) China's defense ministry announced that it is planning a naval training exercise in the western Pacific. It said the drill will adhere to relevant international laws and practice and is not directed against any particular country.

Military Denies Plan to Deploy Fleet off Somalia
(Taipei Times, Nov. 22, 2011) A senior military official denied a media report that the navy would dispatch a fleet to protect Taiwan’s long-line fishing boats off the coast of Somalia by the end of this month, but said the navy was capable and had prepared for such a mission.

Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Electoin and Foreign Relations

Candidates Talk Cross-Strait Politics
(China Post, Nov. 27, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou has dismissed claims about Beijing rallying behind his re-election bid, while DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen has said she remains “open-minded” to the possibility of her visiting China. James Soong of the PFP expressed open support for eventual unification of Taiwan and the mainland. BBC Chinese interviews with Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai Ing-wen, and James Soong

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(Now News, Nov. 24, 2011) If respondents were to vote tomorrow, 39% would vote for KMT’s Ma-Wu ticket, 35.8% for DPP’s Tsai-Su ticket, and 9.9% for PFP’s Soong-Lin ticket.

Ma’s Lead Narrows As Rivals Enter Taiwan Election By Paul Mozur and Jenny W. Hsu (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 23, 2011) Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou is slipping in the polls as candidates for a January election formally register this week, setting the stage for a tight contest closely watched in Beijing and Washington.

Soong Signs Up for Presidential Race
(Taipei Times, Nov. 25, 2011) People First Party Chairman James Soong officially signed up for the Jan. 14 presidential election, calling on the public to look beyond party lines and vote for him.

Ma Aims for TIFA Eligibility in Next Term
(China Post, Nov. 23, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou vowed yesterday to establish a U.S.-Taiwan trade network that matches Taiwan's links with mainland China.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

Silence Not Necessarily Golden for China’s Next Leaders By Russell Leigh Moses (China Real Time Report, Nov. 22, 2011) Of course, many cadres hope for a smooth leadership transition. Yet the discontented in Chinese society seem to need something transformational, and some cadres could be starting to get on board.

In Search of Leverage with China By Judy Dempsey(New York Times, Nov. 22, 2011) China’s bilateral approach to each member state and the pull of short-term national interests is leading to a fragmentation of E.U.-China policy.

Europe’s Debt Crisis Takes Toll in China As Exports Slow By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Nov. 23, 2011) And in a further sign of just how badly the continuing debt crisis in the euro-zone economies is affecting China, a few economists here are even speculating that China could soon see its first trade deficit in two decades.

China Labor Unrest Linked to Global Economic Slowdown, Europe Debt Crisis By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Nov. 27, 2011) In another sign of the impact on China’s economy of Europe’s debt crisis and the U.S. economic slowdown, factories in southern Guangdong province, the country’s manufacturing heartland, have been the target of a recent wave of labor strikes.

China, the ‘Leading Dragon’ of the World Economy By Justin Yifu Lin (BBC, Nov. 24, 2011) Whether we are on the verge of an “Asian Century” or not, one thing is clear: there has already been a dramatic shift in the geographic center of the world economy.

Regional Issues

Three-Way Military Drills with US, PRC Possible: Australia
(AFP, Nov. 23, 2011) Australian Minister of Defense Stephen Smith said Canberra would seriously consider trilateral military training with the US and China following the announcement of a US troop buildup in Darwin.

China, India Perform Dangerous New Dance of Encircler, Counter-encircler By Simon Denyer (Washington Post, Nov. 27, 2011) Threatened by China’s rapidly growing ties with its South Asian neighbors, India is increasingly trying to penetrate Beijing’s traditional sphere of influence, and the mutual irritations are beginning to show.