Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jan. 29, 2012)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Incumbent Ma Ying-jeou Reelected--Reactions and Assessments

Taiwan’s Presidential and Legislative Elections: Implications for Taiwan, the United States, and Cross-strait Relations By Richard C. Bush (Luncheon address, CSIS-Brookings Symposium, Jan. 17, 2012) It is unlikely that President Ma will accelerate the process of reconciliation with China, moving towards negotiations on political and security issues. The smartest thing for Beijing and Taipei to do in Ma’s second term may be to consolidate the gains of the first one. How to Size Up Taiwan’s 2012 Election—Dr. Yun-han Chu’s presentation in this CSIS-Brookings Symposium

DPP Prepares for Crucial Election Review
(China Post, Jan. 24, 2012) The DPP is preparing for a crucial meeting for a sweeping review of their defeat in the presidential election after the Lunar New Year's holiday.

Academics Expect Cross-Strait Relations to Deepen
(CNA, Jan. 27, 2012) If Xi Jinping takes over leadership of the CCP later this year, as expected, he is likely to be too busy with other issues to push a change of policy on Taiwan.

U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement

US to Keep All 11 Aircraft Carriers As Show of Power
(AP, Jan. 23, 2012) US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta told sailors aboard the country’s oldest aircraft carrier that the US was committed to maintaining a fleet of 11 of the formidable warships despite budget pressures, in part to project sea power against Iran.

China Leader-in-Waiting Xi to Visit White House Next Month
(Reuters, Jan. 24, 2012) President Obama will host China’s likely next leader, Vice President Xi Jinping, at the White House on February 14, in a visit set to boost Xi’s credentials as the man who will steer Beijing’s close but quarrelsome ties with Washington.

The End of Win-Win World By Gideon Rachman(Foreign Policy, Jan. 24, 2012) The rise of zero-sum logic is the common thread, tying together seemingly disparate strands in international politics: the crisis inside the European Union, deteriorating U.S.-Chinese relations, and the deadlock in global governance.

PLA and Military Balance

China in 2012: Shifting Perspectives-Assessing the PLA from the Ground Up By Dennis J. Glasko (China Breif 12(2), Jamestown Foundation, Jan. 20, 2012) Assessing senior-level leadership changes is important, but in order to judge the degree of improvement in People’s Liberation Army operational capabilities, many other factors need to be examined.

Year of the Water Dragon: 12 Chinese Maritime Developments to Look for in 2012 By Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins (China Real Time Report, Jan. 23, 2012) Beginning with the major potential newsmakers, here are 12 key maritime developments to watch for and what they mean.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Taiwan’s New Premier Named
(CNA, Jan. 27, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou has decided to appoint incumbent Deputy Premier Sean Chen as Taiwan's new premier.

Taiwan Offers Baby Bonus to Fix Plummeting Birth Rate By Tania Branigan (Guardian, Jan. 23, 2012) The island's plummeting birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, experts say, prompting a warning from the president himself, Ma Ying-jeou, that it is "a serious national security threat".

Free Trade Area to be Set Up in South Taiwan
(AFP, Jan. 26, 2012) Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou said a free trade area would be set up soon in the south, as the government begins moves to joining a trans-Pacific free trade alliance.

AIT Chairman to Press for Beef Breakthrough
(Taipei Times, Jan. 29, 2012) Sources close to Burghardt said the beef issue would “most likely” top his agenda, while Ma was expected to concentrate on the possible future sale of F-16C/D aircraft and US help in acquiring diesel-electric submarines.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

China Says Tibetan Monks Rioted, Provoking Deadly Confrontation By Keith Bradsher (New York Times, Jan. 24, 2012) The official version and the version put forward by overseas Tibetan groups both seemed to suggest that the confrontation may have been the most violent since a series of large-scale protests rocked Tibetan-populated regions in early 2008.

Deadly Confrontation Spreads in Tibetan Region of China
(New York Times, Jan. 25, 2012) Deadly showdowns between Chinese security forces and Tibetans in a restive region of western China spread to a second town on Tuesday, outside advocacy groups reported.

Chinese Crackdown Seals off Ethnic Unrest By Michael Wines(New York Times, Jan. 29, 2012) Faced with the largest outbreak of Tibetan unrest since riots in Lhasa and elsewhere in 2008, the government is taking no chances that the turmoil — which has included Chinese forces firing on and killing some demonstrators — will spread.

China in 2012: The Politics and Policy of Leadership Succession By Bruce Gilley (China Breif 12(2), Jamestown Foundation, Jan. 20, 2012) The political challenges facing Xi Jinping concern both policy and government reform. Key benchmarks can be used to trace the implications of each of these three political stories of 2012—succession, policy and government—giving signs about the future direction of politics and leadership in China.

China’s Hidden Wealth Feeds an Income Gap By Didi Kirsten Tatlow(New York Times, Jan. 26, 2012) The rich were hiding their wealth, and society was far more unequal than the government was admitting — a politically sensitive subject.

FDI Focus Continues to Shift By Ding Qingfen(China Daily, Jan. 27, 2012) Chinese officials believe that the structure of China's FDI is changing with a move away from low-end manufacturing toward those sectors that could help China transform its economic growth model, including services, high-tech, new-energy and high-end manufacturing.

China in 2012: Political Challenges in China’s Economic Governance By Willy Lam (China Breif 12(2), Jamestown Foundation, Jan. 20, 2012) Despite the obsession with stability and the penchant for sticking with time-tested means to re-inflate the economy, this year could be a watershed in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration’s long-standing effort to restructure the economy.

Regional Issues

Philippines May Allow Greater U.S. Military Presence in Reaction to China’s Rise By Crag Whitlock (Washington Post, Jan. 26, 2012) Two decades after evicting U.S. forces from their biggest base in the Pacific, the Philippines is in talks with the Obama administration about expanding the American military presence in the island nation, the latest in a series of strategic moves aimed at China.

China in 2012: Foreign Affairs a Secondary Priority but Salient Challenges Ahead By Robert Sutter (China Breif 12(2), Jamestown Foundation, Jan. 20, 2012) China’s main problems in foreign affairs in 2012 relate to Chinese leaders’ difficulty in sustaining an effective and unified approach to foreign affairs amid challenges along China’s periphery in Asia.

All Roads to Myanmar By Zha Daojiong(PacNet #6A, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Jan. 25, 2012) One after another, Western dignitaries are traveling to Myanmar. A standard interpretation of the change in attitude is that Myanmar is finally demonstrating the courage and means to break away from China. But was Myanmar in the Chinese “geopolitical grip” in the first place?

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