Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Tuesday 13 January 2015


2015 - Nowhere To Go But Up

X-factor Report, 11 January 2015
by Lance Roberts, StreetTalk Live
Last week, I reviewed 2014 as we closed the books on the trading year. This week, I want to look at the mainstream analysis and media exuberance as we go into the year and offer some perspectives for you to consider.



Market Commentary: Markets Close Down After Trading Sideways During The Afternoon Session On Low Volume

Closing Market Commentary For 01-12-2015
The afternoon session mostly traded sideways as the oils did likewise. The oils have been quiet, but WTI has hit new lows (45.87) and oil benchmarks are expected to fall further. Gold melted up to 1235, highest in a month.
By 4 pm the averages looked weak and any recoup of recent losses is entirely in the 'hands' of the oil gods and a few lawless screw-balls on Wall Street. The markets want to go up, but will they?



What We Read Today 12 January 2015

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
Europe Stocks Gain, Asia Falls as Oil Slide, US Jobs Weighed(Joe McDonald, APabc News) Asia stocks slid lower as has oil so far to start this week, but European stocks are trading higher, as are U.S. stock futures. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against the Japanese yen and the euro. This article was posted at 4:17 am EST (New York time).





Us Air Force F-35 Super Scam Delayed Again


An interesting news report about further delays in the US Air force F-35 fighter aircraft program. The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is a family of single-seat, single-engine, all weather stealth multirole fighters undergoing testing and final development. The fifth generation combat aircraft is designed to perform ground attack, reconnaissance, and air defense missions. The F-35 has three main models: the F-35A conventional takeoff and landing, the F-35B short take-off and vertical-landing and the F-35C carrier-based Catapult Assisted Take-Off Barrier Arrested Recovery variant.



Low 2014 Holiday Retail Hiring Falls Short of Expectations -

by Challenger Gray and Christmas
After a record-breaking hiring spree in October, seasonal employment gains in retail fizzled in November and December, with employers adding 23,000 fewer workers than during the same two-month period a year earlier. To make matters worse, it appears that several retailers are now implementing heavy job-cut initiatives to start the year.



December 2014 Conference Board Employment Index Improves and the Rate of Growth Accelerates Slightly

Written by Steven Hansen
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index - which forecasts employment for the next 6 months - again strengthened. The index has improved now for 12 months. However, the rate of growth improved this month.

Read more >>



Market Commentary: Markets Stumble Out Of The Starting Gate, DOW Down Triple Digits As Oil Falls

Written by 
Opening Market Commentary For 01-12-2015
Premarkets were up +0.3% early on and then dropped into the red as the oils fell too. By the opening the averages were flat, in the green on low opening volume. Within 5 minutes the averages were taking what looked like a nose dive, falling sharply on heavy volume averaging a half percentage point down.
By 10 am, after the averages stumbled out of the starting gate to post numbers in the red, the commodities had more or less stabilized for the moment, but the equities were still falling along with the oil. We may have seen the fireworks for the morning, but you can count on oil falling further with the equities not far behind in the days ahead.




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Hybrid Banking Intermediaries

by Nicola Cetorelli - Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
A successful hybrid is an offspring of two species that, in a new environment, is better suited for survival than its own parents. Evolution in the financial 'ecosystem' seems to have driven the emergence ofhybrid intermediaries.



Michael Pettis: Interviews on Inflation and Deflation in China

by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets
The National Bureau of Statistics released today (09 January 2015) CPI and PPI data for December 2014. People's Daily summarizes the CPI data, which came in pretty close to market expectations:
china-balloons-360x150



Why Gas isn't the Answer to Falling Commodity Prices or Employment

by Philip Adams, The Conversation
The large Queensland liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects currently under construction will begin production over the next two years. Exploiting previously unused reserves of coal seam gas, the LNG produced will be sold at an international price which far exceeds the current price of natural gas being paid by industries and households in Eastern Australia.



Behold the US Dollar

Written by David Petch, Treasure Chests
The purpose of this article is to illustrate the continuous strength of the US Dollar from back in September 2014 and how we are not even at the half way point yet for this current move. The US Dollar Index is thought to be in a bull market for another 5-7 years, so as analysis will show today, the top in the US Dollar appears to be setting up for mid-term top this coming September, rather than November as previously reported.



Abe: Budget is a Record but Will Lead to Reduced Deficits for Japan

Econintersect: Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has proposed a record Yen96.3 trillion ($813 billion) budget for the next fiscal year starting 01 April 2015. This is up from the current budget of Yen95.9 trillion ($810 billion), an increase of 0.4%. An expected surge in tax revenues from the second year of the new 8% consumption tax in a strengthening economy and the accompanying higher corporate tax receipts are projected to reduce the government annual deficit by 10.6%, from Yen 41.3 trillion to Yen36.9 trillion.
little-boy-suma-wrestler380x180



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Investing for Europe's Future

by Mateusz Szcurek, Voxeu.org
Originally published at Voxeu.org 05 September 2014.
The 'lost decade' is not a scenario for the EU, it's the baseline forecast. In this column, Polish Finance Minister Mateusz Szczurek calls for an EU-wide public investment programme of 5.5% of GDP to overcome the constraints behind Europe's 'secular stagnation'. He calculates that euro 700 billion of capital expenditures could close the output gap in the short term while increasing long-term productivity growth. Funded by EU members and private leverage, it could operate as a special-purpose vehicle under the EIB.

Read more >>



Quantifying the Macroeconomic Impact of the European Fund for Investments

by Mateusz Szczurek, Voxeu.org
Analytical Note to accompany Minister Mateusz Szczurek's keynote address at the Bruegel Institute's 2014 Annual Meeting. Originally published at Voxeu.org 05 September 2014.
Introduction: The European Fund for Investments
In his keynote address at the 2014 Bruegel Institute annual dinner, Poland's Minister of Finance Mr. Mateusz Szczurek laid out a proposal for jumpstarting the EU economy, avoiding a prolonged stagnation and building solid foundations for long run growth. This proposal is based on a European-level program of scaling up public investment by around 5.5% of European Union GDP or 700 billion euros within the next 5 years. The capital spending would start at 0.5% of European GDP in 2015, peak at 2% in 2017, and be gradually phased out afterwards (Figure 1).

Read more >>



Insider Trading 09 January 2015: 7 Insiders Were Selling Twitter

by Asif Suria
Insider buying increased significantly last week with insiders buying $104.71 million of stock compared to $18.4 million in the week prior. Selling also increased with insiders selling $728.27 million of stock last week compared to $258.37 million in the week prior. The majority of the insider buying was related to biotech investors Baker Brothers participating in a secondary offering by Synageva Biopharma (GEVA) by picking up a million shares to the tune of $94.19 million. With the first quarter earnings season just around the corner, we are likely to see muted insider activity over the next few days.


Can a Gold-Plated Military Counter ISIS?

by Franklin (Chuck) Spinney, The Blaster
Lightly armed guerrilla/insurgent/terrorist forces are once again holding off the high-tech, heavily armed forces of the United States. A string of defeats is slowly accumulating at the strategic and grand-strategic levels of conflict, even though US forces almost always win battles at the tactical level, if they can fix the insurgents and destroy them with overwhelming firepower, particularly bombing. But when viewed through the overlapping lenses of the operational, strategic, and grand strategic levels of conflict guerrillas have advantages to offset US firepower.



Never Mind the Selfish Gene - Ribosomes are the Missing Link

by Robert Root-Bernstein and Meredith Root-BernsteinThe Conversation
Since the discovery that DNA encodes genetic information, research on the evolution of life has focused on its genetic origins. Following this 'genes-first' approach, Oxford University evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins has argued in his book The Selfish Gene that cells and organisms evolved simply as packages to ever-more efficiently protect and transmit genes.



Streaming Boom Changes Music Landscape

by Felix Richter, Statista.com
A little more than a decade after Apple opened the iTunes Music Store and helped music downloads to break through to the mainstream, it appears as if listeners have already turned their backs on download stores.