On the Verge of Disaster - Or a Miracle
by Worth Wray, Thoughts from the Frontline
Twenty years after the first divergence-induced currency crisis of the 1990s, commodity prices are tumbling, the US dollar is rallying, and externally fragile emerging markets are reliving the horrors of their not-so-distant past. Except, this time, major economies like the United States, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, Japan, and the People's Republic of China may not be able to side-step the ensuing contagion.
Market Commentary: Afternoon Markets Trade Sideways, DOW Closes Off 171 Points
Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 01-09-2015
The trading zone was narrow and sideways, but the bulls and bears battled it out all afternoon without a clear winner. The volume remained low to sometimes moderate levels as we head into the weekend where anything could happen.
By 4 pm it was obvious that the BTFDers are still around and believe the upside rally is just a session away while the naysayers decided to jump ship while there is still time. The DOW closed 171 points down and small caps followed closely.
What We Read Today 09 January 2015
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
World's Best Forecaster Targets Euro-Dollar Parity: Currencies(Lucy Meakin and Andrea Wong, Bloomberg) We have been discussing this 'behind the wall' in recent days and now ING Groep NV which became the world's most accurate currency forecaster in 2014 by being bearish on the euro has forecast a 13-year low for the euro at U.S. dollar parity. The forecast covers the expected low over the coming two years. See more about currency forecasts 'behind the wall' today.
Market Commentary: Averages Continue To Fall As Investors Worry About Falling Oil, The EU And 'Grexit'
Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 01-09-2015
The averages have steadily lost gains after the positive opening this morning and at one point were down over one percent.
By noon the markets were slithering further down the slippery oil slope as Brent posts lowest prices since 2009 and is expected to fall further. The EU and Greece's 'Grexit' is not far away from investors minds as many are having second thoughts of staying on the bull train.
How low can it go? Brent oil falls below $50 - first time since 2009
Brent crude oil has fallen below $50 per barrel on the London Stock Exchange - the lowest plunge since the dark days of the 2008 financial crisis. So far in 2015 Brent has already lost 10% of its value, after wiping out 50% in 2014. Experts say that plummeting oil and glut in supplies may see shale investment bust.
02 January 2015: ECRI's WLI Decline Continues - Going Deeper Into Negative Territory
ECRI's WLI Growth Index declined and has remained in negative territory for 12 weeks. This index is forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in 1H2015. Obviously the markets do not share ECRI's view the business cycle is taking a downturn. ECRI also released their inflation index and is discussed below.Market Commentary: Markets Open In The Green And Then Fall Into The Red Over -0.5% On Falling Volume
Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 01-09-2015
Premarkets up +0.1% primarily due to a good report on adding a quarter of a million new jobs in December. The markets open briefly in the green and then started falling first pausing in the unchanged zone. Selloff volume was high as oil remained steady and the US dollar began to creep down.
By 10 am the averages had retracted fractionally from their lows and then were melting back down on falling volume. You were warned yesterday about a possible bear eating bull.
Wholesale Sales and Inventory Data Was Absolutely Terrible in November 2014
Written by Steven Hansen
The headlines say wholesale sales declined and inventories grew. This data series is very noisy, and continues on a roller coaster of good and bad data. Because of this noise, the best way to look at this series may be the unadjusted data three month rolling averages which decelerated for the fourth month in a row. The data for wholesale trade was terrible this month but it could have been caused by a changing seasonal demand.
A Word from This Newsletter's Sponsor for 09 January 2015
How I Made $1,900,336.82 Trading Commodities eBook
Author and Pro Standard and Poors pit trader Larry Levin is giving away the electronic edition of his award-winning book.
Learn Larrys proprietary tactics that were keys to his wildly successful trading run, including his actual trade statements!
BLS Jobs Situation Was Again Strong in December 2014 for the Establishment Portion But the Household Portion Again Is Very Different
The BLS jobs report headlines from the establishment survey were strong and above expectations. The unadjusted data shows very strong jobs growth. Year-over-year growth rates are improving. The household survey again says something different.
In-the-Money Covered Calls as a Conservative Income Generator
Online Trading Academy Article of the Week
by Russ Allen, Online Trading Academy Instructor
The last couple of weeks' articles, which you can read here and here, dealt with the time value in a call option and its ups and downs. We'll polish off this series with a description of a strategy that can be used to generate a moderate amount of income with a relatively small amount of risk.
EU Showdown: Greece Takes on the Vampire Squid
by Ellen Brown, Web of Debt
Greece and the troika (the International Monetary Fund, the EU, and the European Central Bank) are in a dangerous game of chicken. The Greeks have been threatened with a "Cyprus-Style prolonged bank holiday" if they "vote wrong." But they have been bullied for too long and are saying "no more."
Dialectics
Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness (58)
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com
The debate between the Northern and Southern Europeans, over the direction of fiscal policy in the Eurozone, is beginning to follow default national stereotypical behaviour. The Northern Europeans are rational and the Southern Europeans are emotional. The Northern Europeans intend to exploit the emotions of their Southern neighbours, in order to provoke the kind of irrational behavior which leads to mistakes.
Disinflation in Western Europe
Chart of the Week 26 December 2014
Written by John O'Donnell, Online Trading Academy
Debt deleveraging is still needed across the globe. The disinflation (diminishing low inflation) in Germany and France is a reflection of that problem.
German and French inflation is discussed in the video following the Read more >> jump.
Poverty is Moving to the Suburbs - The Question is What to Do About It
by Gwilym Pryce, The Conversation
The conventional image of suburbia is one of bland affluence and social homogeneity. Suburbs are where the middle classes aspire to make their nests. They are the idealised safe havens for raising children and growing old. They are where white people migrate to flee ethnic diversity.
Monthly Budget Review for December 2014 - Total Receipts Up by 11 Percent in the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2015
from the Congressional Budget Office
The federal government's budget deficit was $175 billion for the first three months of fiscal year 2015, $3 billion more than the shortfall recorded in the same period last year, CBO estimates. Revenues and outlays were both higher (by 11 percent and 9 percent, respectively) than they were at the same point in fiscal year 2014.
November 2014 Consumer Credit Growth Rises. Current Increase in Rate of Growth is Not Sustainable.
Written by Steven Hansen
Consumer credit growth has been trending downsince July - but grew this month. It is interesting that student loan growth has not been distorting one's view of the consumer credit growth as the rate of growth is now slightly decelerating. Overall, consumer credit is growing at roughly double GDP growth and repayment of consumer debt is taking a larger share of disposable income. The current trends are not sustainable unless there is a similar increase of growth in disposable income.
Fed's Balance Sheet 07 January 2015 Up a Tad
Total Fed Balance Sheet
Fed'sBalance Sheet week ending balance sheet was $4.459 trillion - down from the record $4.469 trillion for week ending 24 December 2014 and up marginally from the $4.457 trillion for week ending 31 December. Note that on the 29 October 2014, the Federal Reserves governing board (FOMC) stated that .....
Infographic of the Day: Are Electronic Cigarettes a Gateway to Smoking?
Many anti-ecig activists claim electronic cigarettes act as a gateway to smoking tobacco cigarettes.
Investing.com Technical Summary 08 January 2014
Investing.com Technical Analysis (as of Thu, 08 January 2015 05:00pm EDT)
by Investing.com Staff, Investing.com
Below, technical overviews and analysis for key stock indices, commodities and currency pairs, 
based on market activity at what would have been the close (absent the holiday) of the 08 January 2015 U.S. session. This information is a comprehensive summary derived from simple and exponential moving averages along with key technical indicators shown for specific time intervals.
based on market activity at what would have been the close (absent the holiday) of the 08 January 2015 U.S. session. This information is a comprehensive summary derived from simple and exponential moving averages along with key technical indicators shown for specific time intervals.Charlie Hebdo Attacks: A Horrific Escalation of Violence in an Already Tense Society
by Sara Silvestri, The Conversation
France has been the target of several attacks perpetrated by so-called Muslim fundamentalists over the past few years, but the shooting of editors and cartoonists at the offices of satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo marks a new low.
How Favorable Do Americans Find Cuba?
from Felix Richter, Statista.com
by Niall McCarthy
by Niall McCarthy
According to various polls, the majority of Americans generally support President Barack Obama's historic policy shift on Cuba.
