When Genius Failed
A Book Review
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101
Every once in a while a book from outside the discipline can help tremendously to make sense of the way how economists interact with the rest of the real world. Roger Lowenstein's book about "The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management" - subtitle: "how one small bank created a trillion-dollar hole" - is such a book.
Market Commentary: The Averages Closed Up with the DOW Up 323, May be the High of the Week
Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 01-08-2015
The afternoon markets drifted fractionally higher as the US dollar climbed back up into the important resistance zone that it broke out of once early this morning. WTI oil climbed into the 48.70 range this afternoon, stopped and then traded sideways in a narrow trading zone until the close. Important to note that Brent traded below 50 for the first time since 2009 at 49.84.
By 4 pm volume remained active, low, as a few investors took on roles as bulls and bears, with neither gaining the advantage. The action tomorrow may be again volatile and the bulls are forewarned of higher risk.
What We Read Today 08 January 2015
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
Save Ukraine to counter Russia, says Soros (Christian Oliver,Financial Times) Billionaire investor George Soros said that the EU is grossly underestimating the importance of Ukraine. That country is far more important for the future economy of Europe, and even for the continuing existence of the EU, than is Greece. Soros said the EU and the U.S. need to back up sanctions against Russia with support for Ukraine which he estimates would run to $50 billion.
Market Commentary: Morning Market Gains Shift To Sideways Trading As Oil Fractionally Trends Down
Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 01-08-2015
The DOW touched 290 earlier and volume didn't totally fall off as expected pushing equities fractionally higher. WTI oil is trending down and looks to put a cap on any further market gains today.
By noon the averages were still elevated, but trading sideways while investors watch the U.S. Dollar trade lower. The bear is watching.
Pentagon worker viewed porn every two minutes for three months
A Pentagon accountant reportedly attempted to access porn while at work 12,000 times over the period of just three months. Besides being just a time waster, finding that much adult material online also poses a potential security threat.
Market Commentary: Markets Open Higher, DOW Up 250+, Today's Volume Not Conducive To Further Gains
Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 01-08-2015
Premarkets were up +0.8% even though the morning financials were 'not-so-good'. The markets opened with a roar and climbed smartly to +1.5% in a matter of minutes as I mentioned they would on Tuesday.
By 10 am the averages were solidly in the green on 'moderate' volume and not as convincing as yesterday's session. What is going to happen today?
03 January 2015 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Insignificantly Changes and Remains Near Record Lows
Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 280,000 to 297,000 (consensus 290,000) vs the 294,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving averagemoved from 290,750 (reported last week as 290,750) to 290,500. Rolling averages under 300,000 are excellent.
December 2015 Job Cuts Lowest Since 1997
from Challenger Gray and Christmas
Job cuts declined for a second consecutive month in December, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to reduce payrolls by 32,640. It was the third lowest monthly total of 2014; a year that saw the fewest planned job cuts since 1997.
Stratfor: Paris Attack Underscores a Deeper Malaise
by STRATFOR
Wednesday's deadly attack against a French satirical publication has the potential to upset relations between European states and their Muslim citizenries. The strategic intent behind such attacks is precisely to sow this kind of crisis, as well as to influence French policy and recruit more jihadists. Even though Islamist extremism is, at its core, an intra-Muslim conflict, such incidents will draw in non-Muslims, exacerbating matters.
German Factory Orders Slumped in November 2014
Econintersect: German factory orders declined for the first time in three months in November 2014, The drop of 2.4% was much larger than had been expected (-0.8%, according to Bloomberg). November reversed most of the 2.9% gain in October. Orders for November 2014 were 0.4% less than the same month a year ago. Domestic factory orders declined much more (-4.7%) than for export (-0.7%).
Click for larger picture with wider view of German toy factory at BBC News.
The Year of the Utility
Investing Daily Article of the Week
by Richard Stavros
Utility investors should be forgiven for popping the champagne a little early this year, as they have much to celebrate: Utilities produced a stunning 33.1% total return in 2014, outperforming all other sectors in the S&P 500, while more than doubling the broad market's return.
Deaths From Drug-Resistant Infections Set To Skyrocket
from Felix Richter, Statista.com
by Niall McCarthy
by Niall McCarthy
According to a recent report, drug-resistant infections are set to skyrocket and they could cost the global economy as much as $100 trillion by 2050.
Don't Chase Returns in 2015!
by Chris Mayer, Daily Reckoning
"Year: a period of 365 disappointments." - Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary
The year 2014 was one of the worst ever for stock pickers. But almost everyone thinks about this in the wrong way. And it could cost you a lot of money in the long run if you think this way too. I'll tell you how I think about it instead below.
Hard Evidence: Can Germany Throw Greece a Lifeline and Save the Euro?
by Gregory T. Papanikos, The Conversation
Germany has sent the message that a Greek exit from the eurozone might be the lesser of two evils. It has been interpreted as a warning to the Greek electorate ahead of its January 25 election as left-wing party Syriza runs on a platform of easing the country's debt and austerity burden. Whether Berlin is successful in this effort or not, debt is the sword of Damocles that will hang above the head of the next Greek government.
17 December 2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes: Some Concern over Slower Foreign Growth, Labor Slack, and Not Enough Inflation
Econintersect: The 17 December 2014 meeting statement presented the actions taken. This post covers the economic discussion during this FOMC meeting between the members. The Fed's Balance Sheet (which we report on weekly) should begin to slightly contract shortly.
One of the more interesting meeting minute statements:
... Some participants suggested that the recent domestic economic data had increased their confidence in the outlook for growth going forward. Participants generally regarded the net effect of the recent decline in energy prices as likely to be positive for economic activity and employment. However, many of them thought that a further deterioration in the foreign economic situation could result in slower domestic economic growth than they currently expected.
Infographic of the Day: Car Cleaning Tips
Six best car cleaning ideas like interior wash tire cleaning, glass cleaning, licence plate etc.
Here's Why We Know That Bernanke Knew He Was Wrong About QE, ZIRP, and Trickle Down
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner
In November 2010 Ben Bernanke revealed publicly that boosting the stock market was part of the official economic policy of the US Federal Reserve.
Is Android Becoming the New Windows?
by Felix Richter, Statista.com
There was a time, around 20 years ago, when Microsoft had around 90 percent market share in the computing market while other companies, most notably Apple, were fighting for relevance.
Many People use Drugs - But Here's Why Most Don't Become Addicts
by Paul Hayes, The Conversation
Drug use is common, drug addiction is rare. About one adult in three will use an illegal drug in their lifetime and just under 3m people will do so this year in England and Wales alone. Most will suffer no long-term harm.
