Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Nov. 20, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

America's Pacific Century--The Economic Aspect

Obama Launches TPP in Asia Push
(AFP, Nov. 14, 2011) US President Barack Obama announced the framework for a vast free-trade agreement spanning the Pacific as he sought a new era of US leadership in a fast-growing region.

China Will Play by Rules It Negotiates: Official
(Reuters, Nov. 14, 2011) China will play by the rules of international agreements that it has been party to negotiating, a Chinese official said.

China Rebuffs Obama’s Criticism on Trade, Currency
(VOA, Nov. 15, 2011) China is pushing back at criticism from U.S. President Barack Obama about Beijing’s currency and trade policies. Obama says Washington does not want China to take advantage of the United States. China’s foreign ministry responded hours later by saying Beijing’s economic policies were not the cause of U.S. financial woes.

APEC Nations Pledge Support for TPP
(AP, Nov. 15, 2011) The plan to forge a Pacific free trade area got a big boost when leaders of Canada and Mexico joined Japan in expressing support for a deal that has received a cool reception from rising power China.

Gov’t to Work toward Joining TPP As Part of Golden Decade: Ma
(China Post, Nov. 15, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou said that his government will work on increasing Taiwan's qualifications and joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership within 10 years, so as to increase Taiwan's share in world markets.

America's Pacific Century--The Security Aspect

U.S. and Australia Seal Expanded Military Ties
(New York Times, Nov. 16, 2011) President Obama and Prime Minister Julia Gillard of Australia made it official: The United States will have an increased and constant military presence on the continent’s north side, symbolizing America’s renewed security interests in the Pacific Rim.

Clinton Reaffirms Military Ties with the Philippines
(New York Times, Nov. 16, 2011) During a high-profile visit to the Philippines, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stood on the deck of a American warship in Manila Bay and reaffirmed the strong military relationship between the United States and the Philippines.

Buildup Down Under By Rory Medcalf(Foreign Policy, Nov. 17, 2011) The American president insisted his historic visit to Australia was not about China. But, of course, that’s exactly what it was about.

A Marine Base for Australia Irritates China By Jackie Calmes(New York Times, Nov. 18, 2011) While the new military commitment is relatively modest, Mr. Obama has promoted it as the cornerstone of a strategy to confront more directly the challenge posed by China’s rapid advance as an economic and military power.

US-China Tension Spills into ASEAN
(Reuters, Nov. 19, 2011) Tension between the United States and China spilled over into meetings of Asia-Pacific leaders as the two countries jostled over how to handle competing claims to the South China Sea.

White House Says U.S.-China Relations “Complicated”
(Reuters, Nov. 19, 2011) The United States has been direct with China about its plans to be more active in the Asia-Pacific region as well as its interests in the South China Sea, National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said.

Obama and Asian Leaders Confront China’s Premier By Jackie Calmes (New York Times, Nov. 20, 2011) President Obama and nearly all the leaders at an Asian summit directly confronted China for its expansive claims to the resource-rich South China Sea, putting the Chinese premier on the defensive in the long-festering dispute.

US, Asia Deepen Security Ties Amid China Challenge By Peter Enav(AP, Nov. 16, 2011) The U.S. has deepened military ties with Asia in the past year, at once reassuring its partners of its commitment and capitalizing on mutual fears about China's rise.

America's Pacific Century--Assessment

Obama Seeks New Pacific Influence By Laura Meckler(Asia Wall Street Journal, Nov. 14, 2011) "This trip is very much about extending a clear signal that the United States is going to be fully present in the economic, security and political future of the Asia-Pacific region, and it takes place in the context of a rising China," Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser at the White House, said in an interview.

The United States and the East Asia Summit: A New Beginning? By David Capie and Amitav Acharya (PacNet #64, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Nov. 14, 2011) It might be tempting to assume that in shaping the expanded EAS the “ASEAN way” has triumphed over the “White House way.” However, these are early days and it remains to be seen whether US interest in the EAS is sustainable over time.

As U.S. Looks to Asia, It Sees China Everywhere By Ian Johnson and Jackie Calmes (New York Times, Nov. 16, 2011) The United States is taking some first steps — bold in rhetoric, still mostly modest in practice — to prove to its Asian allies that it intends to remain a crucial military and economic power in the region.

Obama’s More Muscular China Policy Sets Beijing on Edge
(AP, Nov. 17, 2011) While Beijing’s public response to President Barack Obama’s more muscular China policy has been muted, behind the scenes the U.S. president’s sudden moves to contest rising Chinese power are setting the capital on edge.

Obama’s Trip Sends Message to Asian Leaders By Jackie Calmes(New York Times, Nov. 19, 2011) President Obama’s presence on Bali island telegraphed his main message: that the United States is turning its focus to the booming Asia-Pacific region after a decade of preoccupation with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

US, China Role Play for ASEAN By Donald K Emmerson(Asia Times, Nov. 19, 2011) China and the United States are reaffirming the tendency in Southeast Asia to see both in terms of specialized roles in the region: Beijing as the economic partner bringing prosperity and Washington as guarding the peace.

Is America Declining? By Chu Shulong(Brookings, November 2011) The recent G-20 gathering in Cannes, the APEC meetings in Honolulu, and the East Asia Summit in Bali are not only showcases for globalization but also opportunities for global leadership. Chu Shulong examines a question that is discussed more and more in China and other countries: Is America declining?

Cross-Strait Issues

Opinion Poll on Taiwan’s Future
(UDN, Nov. 17, 2011) 53% of respondents want to maintain Taiwan’s status quo forever.

Taiwan-China Peace Accord Unlikely
(VOA, Nov. 17, 2011) The Taiwanese official in charge of the ministry overseeing policy with Beijing says her government lacks the trust in China to pursue a peace accord with its rival of more than 60 years.

Ma Rules Out Meeting with Chinese Leader If Re-elected
(CNA, Nov. 20, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou said he will not meet with the Chinese leader if he is elected for another four-year term next year.

U.S. Policy

US House Body Votes to Adopt New Laws on Taiwan
(Taipei Times, Nov. 19, 2011) The US House of Representatives’ Committee on Foreign Affairs voted unanimously to adopt two new laws to substantially boost US relations with Taiwan.

Military Balance and Arms Sales

Military Prepares to Start Drill on Pingtung Highway
(CNA, Nov. 15, 2011) Taiwan's armed forces staged a rehearsal for a military drill that will be held for the first time on the Chia Tung Highway Strip in southern Taiwan as part of joint combat training.

Cornyn Threatens Hold on Lippert Nomination Over Taiwan Arms Sales (The Cable, Nov. 18, 2011) Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) threatened today to place a hold on the nomination of President Barack Obama's confidant Mark Lippert, who has been nominated as the Pentagon's top official for Asia.

Upgrading Taiwan’s F-16s Is Not Enough By Dean Cheng(The Foundry, Nov. 19, 2011) The first upgrades of the F-16 A/B will not be complete for more than five years, and the retrofit of the entire fleet will probably take at least 10. So for at least a half decade, and probably longer, the total number of F-16s available to patrol the skies over the island will be reduced.

Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Electoin and Foreign Relations

Election Polls Indicate Ma Lead Starting to Fall
(Taipei Times, Nov. 14, 2011) In a poll released by the Chinese-language United Daily News, Ma and his running mate, Premier Wu Den-yih, had a small lead in voter support over Tsai and her running mate, DPP -Secretary-General Su Jia-chyuan, at 41 percent versus 36 percent. Dump/Save Effect on 2012 Presidential Election

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(TVBS, Nov. 16, 2011) In the latest opinion poll, KMT’s Ma-Wu ticket would garner the same rate of support as DPP’s Tsai-Su ticket in a three-way competition.

Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election and Cross-Strait Relations By Bonnie S. Glaser and Brittany Billingsley (PacNet #66, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Nov. 16, 2011) Some mainland Chinese scholars suggest that a DPP victory could embolden domestic critics of Chinese President Hu Jintao's policy of pursuing "peaceful development" in cross-strait relations to push for a tougher approach.

Biding Time: The Challenge of Taiwan’s International Status By Sigrid Winkler (Brookings, November 2011) Taiwan’s achievement of being invited to the WHA as an observer seems to have created a precedent for other countries on how to deal with Taiwan’s attempts to participate in international organizations, namely to leave any decisions to bilateral consultations between Taipei and Beijing.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

Dispute Over Bare Islands Underscores Philippines’ Rocky Relations with China By Andrew Jacobs (New York Times, Nov. 16, 2011) Even as it takes comfort in its longstanding alliance with the United States, the Philippines, a former American colony, is eager to find common ground with its giant neighbor to the north, whose growing economic pull it is finding impossible to resist.

Japan to Take Assertive Stance toward China By Yoree Koh(Wall Street Journal, Nov. 17, 2011) Japan's prime minister plans to present a subtle challenge to China at a regional summit by pressing fellow Asian leaders to focus more on maritime security, a discussion opposed by an increasingly assertive Beijing.

Japan to Deploy Forces near Tiaoyutais
(China Post, Nov. 19, 2011) Japan is planning to deploy self-defense troops on the country's westernmost Yonaguni Island in order to strengthen the defense of the southwest islands, NHK reported.

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