Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jan. 8, 2012)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

America's Pacific Century--Obama Announced US Defense Strategic Guidance

Obama Puts His Stamp on Strategy for a Leaner Military By Elisabeth Bumiller and Thom Shanker (New York Times, Jan. 6, 2011) Mr. Obama outlined a new national defense strategy driven by three realities: the winding down of a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, a fiscal crisis demanding hundreds of billions of dollars in Pentagon budget cuts and a rising threat from China and Iran.

Chinese News Agency Warns against U.S. Moves By David Barboza(New York Times, Jan. 7, 2012) China’s state-run news media warned Washington not to “recklessly practice militarism” or engage in “war mongering,” a day after the Obama administration outlined a new military strategy with an increased focus on China.

AIT Briefs Officials on Latest Defense Strategic Guidance
(Taipei Times, Jan. 7, 2012) The American Institute in Taiwan briefed the government on the US’ latest Defense Strategic Guidance, which was released by US President Barack Obama.

China Takes Aim at U.S. Naval Might By Julian E. Barnes, Nathan Hodge, and Jeremy Page (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 4, 2012) Without either nation saying so, China and the United States are quietly engaged in a tit-for-tat military-technology race. At stake is the balance of power in a corner of the seas that is growing rapidly in importance.

Power Play By Patrick M. Cronin(Foreign Policy, Jan. 5, 2012) Far from acquiescing to America's strategic pivot to Asia, China will seek to block what the Communist Party mouthpiece the People's Daily called the "U.S. 'return' to China," alleging that the United States is reverting to Cold War policies.

Is China America’s New Enemy? By Amitai Etzioni(CNN, Jan. 6, 2012) The U.S. can safely continue to seek to turn China into a partner before concluding that a course of confrontation is unavoidable.

North Korea's Leadership Succession

Dealing with North Korea’s New Leader: Getting It Right By Evans Revere (PacNet #70A, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Dec. 27, 2011) While Kim’s demise creates a new dynamic and the leadership transition in Pyongyang raises important questions, it hardly warrants the dire warnings of North Korean adventurism, implosion, or near-term collapse that have been issued by some analysts and commentators.

American Diplomat Urges China to Consult Over North Korea
(New York Times, Jan. 6, 2012) Assistant Secretary of State M. Kurt Campbell urged China to help restrain the new leadership in the North from military provocations as it goes through a sensitive transition of power.

Amid N. Korea Succession, China Makes Push for Stability By Chico Harlan (Washington Post, Jan. 4, 2012) Pyongyang’s precarious power transfer has narrowed China’s goals on the Korean Peninsula, turning Beijing from a benefactor and adviser into a protector — concerned foremost with preventing collapse, not pushing for improvement.

Beijing Rallies behind Supreme Leader By Yvonne Su(Asia Times, Jan. 5, 2012) "The conventional wisdom is that China only cares about one thing when it comes to North Korea - stability," John Delury, a researcher on China and the two Koreas at Seoul's Yonsei University, said.

Dynasty, North Korean-Style By B. R. Myers(New York Times, Jan. 8, 2012) The West seems determined to continue paying as little attention to North Korean ideology as possible. The race-thinking pervading the official rhetoric has been ignored.

Sino-U.S. Engagement

Biden to Oversee PRC File: Report By William Lowther
(Taipei Times, Jan. 4, 2012) US Vice President Joseph Biden will reportedly “take the lead” in the next phase of US policy toward China, which will almost certainly give Biden a major say in future US-Taiwan relations.

Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Electoin

Poll Shows Turnout Is Key
(Taipei Times, Jan. 2, 2012) When Taiwan Thinktank factored in the motivation of voters, its results showed that a higher turnout decreased Tsai Ing-wen’s chances of winning.

Taiwan’s Ma Leads Chief Rival Tsai in Final Opinion Polls
(Bloomberg, Jan. 3, 2012) Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou maintained a lead over rival Tsai Ing-wen in the last opinion polls permitted before presidential and legislative elections.

Chen Reappears As Taiwan Election Nears By Paul Mozur(China Real Time Report, Jan. 3, 2012) With Saturday’s announcement that Mr. Chen’s mother-in-law, Wu Wang Hsia, passed away, the spotlight has once again fallen on Mr. Chen. It comes amid a tight race between Mr. Ma and Ms. Tsai, meaning even a small impact could shift momentum one way or the other.

Ties to China Linger As Issue As Taiwanese Prepare to Vote By Andrew Jacobs (New York Times, Jan. 5, 2011) When voters go to the polls on Jan. 14, they will also be guided by their views on a separate, overwhelmingly important issue: whether this vibrantly democratic island of 23 million should speed, slow or halt its wary embrace of China.

‘1992 Consensus’ Vital to Taiwan’s Economy: Chang
(China Post, Jan. 4, 2012) With Election Day drawing near, business tycoon Chang Yung-fa publicized his leanings for the first time: He is pulling for no particular candidate, but strongly supports the “1992 Consensus.”

Big Business Tries to Sway Increasingly Tense Taiwan Election
(Sydney Morning Herald, Jan. 5, 2012) The idea is that with skin in the game, Taiwanese with business interests in China will vote for the safe option and keep the status quo.

US Shows Ma Preference: Experts
(Taipei Times, Jan. 8, 2012) The release of the briefing provided by the AIT to the nation’s security-related officials on the latest US Defense Strategic Guidance was another sign of US preference in the coming presidential election, experts on US-Taiwan relations said.

Neither Independence Nor Unification By Zoher Abdool Carim(Time, Jan. 12, 2012) Too bad one of them has to lose. But whatever happens, as the freest place in the Chinese world, Taiwan wins.

Ma Vows Future for Youth, Tsai Stresses Gender
(China Post, Jan. 7, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou promised to provide a bright future for all young people and children in a secure environment while Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP stressed her unique role as a possible female president who can best bring forth peace and stability.

Tsai Planning Grand Coalition to End Divisions
(Taipei Times, Jan. 8, 2012) DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s proposal to form a coalition government if elected has sparked debate as the DPP said such a move would be Tsai’s solution to help end the nation’s political divide.

Interview with Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou
(New York Times, Jan. 5, 2011) Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou is running for re-election on Jan. 14. The following is a partial transcript of an interview conducted last month with Times reporter Andrew Jacobs at Taiwan’s Presidential Palace in Taipei.

Interview with Tsai Ing-wen
(New York Times, Jan. 5, 2011) Tsai Ing-wen, chair of the Democratic Progressive Party, is running for president of Taiwan against President Ma Ying-jeou in the Jan. 14 elections. The following is a partial transcript of the interview conducted last month with Times reporter Andrew Jacobs at the Taipei headquarters of her party.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

Hu Warns Chinese Culture Being ‘Westernized’: Report
(AFP, Jan. 3, 2012) Chinese President Hu Jintao warned that “hostile” powers are seeking to “Westernize” the country and called for greater efforts to enhance China’s cultural influence overseas.

China’s Vice President Orders More Thought Control Over Students (The Telegraph, Jan. 7, 2012) Xi Jinping, who is tipped to take over from President Hu Jintao later this year, has ordered universities to increase thought control over students and young lecturers.

In China, the Grievances Keep Coming By Yu Hua(New York Times, Jan. 2, 2012) A peculiar feature of Chinese society is that a complaint process runs parallel to, but outside, the legal system.

China’s New Leaders Get in Line By Jeremy Page(Wall Street Journal, Jan. 3, 2012) China begins a once-a-decade leadership change in 2012 that could paralyze decision-making, stir infighting and expose flaws in an ossified political system—just when urgent action is needed to steer the world's second-largest economy.

China to Put GDP Target Below 8 Pct in 2012-Govt Economist
(Reuters, Jan. 6, 2012) China’s leadership is targeting growth of less than 8 percent in 2012 a senior government researcher wrote in the People’s Daily.

China Moving to More Convertible Yuan: Zhou
(Reuters, Dec. 31, 2011) China’s central bank governor said Beijing would keep improving the exchange rate regime to make it more flexible, adding it is natural for the currency to fluctuate in a bigger trading band in future.

China Is Easing Yuan-Pay System
(Wall Street Journal, Jan. 5, 2012) China is developing a payment system that will make it more efficient for banks to clear yuan funds across its borders, in another move aimed at promoting the global use of the Chinese currency.

Regional Issues

China at It Again, Denies Visa to Arunachal Officer
(Times of India, Jan. 7, 2012) India has put "on hold" the visit of a 30-strong military delegation to China next week after Beijing refused to issue a visa to one member, a colonel-rank IAF officer who hails from Arunachal Pradesh.