Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jan. 15, 2012)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Incumbent Ma Ying-jeou Won the Presidential Election

Incumbent Ma Re-elected As Taiwan’s President
(New York Times, Jan. 15, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou was re-elected by a comfortable margin, fending off a fierce challenge from his main rival, Tsai Ing-wen, who criticized his handling of the economy but also sought to exploit fears among voters that his conciliatory approach toward China was eroding the island’s sovereignty. Tsai Steps Down As DPP Chair After Defeat in Presidential Poll

Beijing ‘Notices’ Election Success for Ma While US Praises Local Democracy (China Post, Jan. 15, 2012) The United States congratulated Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou on Saturday for securing a second four-year term and praised the island as “one of the great success stories in Asia.”

Ma’s Re-election Opens New Chances for Peaceful Cross-Strait Relations (Xinhua, Jan. 15, 2012) The winning of Ma Ying-jeou and Kuomintang in Saturday's elections may open new chances for the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations.

Taiwan’s Re-elected President in No Hurry for China Political Talks, Says Economy Comes First (AP, Jan. 15, 2012) While Chinese President Hu Jintao would like to see progress in repairing the political rift between Taiwan and the mainland before he leaves office this year, Ma made clear after declaring victory that he wants to strengthen economic ties before addressing political issues.

Ma’s Re-election to 2nd Term Stands As Clear Affirmation of ‘1992 Consensus’ (China Post, Jan. 15, 2012) Taipei and Beijing may not have reached an agreement to allow them to disagree on the meaning of “one China” in 1992, but the “fiction” is now definitely an established discourse that is accepted by both sides as common ground.

2012 Presidential Election: How the Nation Voted
(Taipei Times, Jan. 15, 2012) While President Ma Ying-jeou won the presidential race with a margin of 797,561 votes, the overall political divide remained relatively unchanged, with the pan-green camp maintaining its traditional strongholds in Yilan County and the south.

2012 Legislative Election: KMT Maintains Majority
(Taipei Times, Jan. 15, 2012) The KMT will return with 17 fewer seats in the new legislature, while the DPP gained 13 seats and the PFP and TSU each gained three seats. 2012 Legislative Election Results

Lead-up to the 2012 Presidential Election

China Looms Over Coming Taiwan Election By Paul Mozur and Jenny W. Hsu (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 9, 2012) Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's policy of economic opening to China has frustrated a key constituency: struggling middle- and low-income workers, who could cost him elections this week.

China’s Influence on Taiwanese Politics By Edward Friedman(Ballots & Bullets, Jan. 6, 2012) It is often said that Taiwanese vote largely on the basis of local economic concerns. But China has been inserting itself into those local economic matters with a desire to influence electoral outcomes. Among other things, the January 2012 elections in democratic Taiwan will reflect how successfully or poorly this Chinese interference in Taiwan affairs has been.

China Trade Exerts Heavy Hand on Election By Annie Huang(AP, Jan. 10, 2012) When Taiwanese choose a president on Saturday, Beijing hopes the people of the farming and fishing town of Syuejia (學甲) and others across Taiwan will think of the benefits China brings.

Once Bitten, China to Temper Remarks on Taiwan Vote By Benjamin Kang Lim (Reuters, Jan. 10, 2012) "If Tsai Ing-wen wins, the mainland will 'listen to her words and watch her deeds' in the beginning," a source with ties to the top Chinese leadership said, also asking not to be identified.

Business Leaders Come Out in Support of Ma
(China Post, Jan. 12, 2012) A group of business leaders from Taiwan's electronics industry pledged support for the “1992 Consensus” — an indirect way to rally behind President Ma Ying-jeou's re-election campaign.

China May Punish Taiwan If Tsai Wins: US Academic By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Jan. 12, 2012) Beijing could try to punish Taiwan if DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen wins the election on Saturday, a US academic told a conference in Washington.

Taiwan Vote May Trip Up US and China By Jens Kastner(Asia Times, Jan. 13, 2012) Victory for the anti-unification Democratic Progressive Party's Tsai Ing-wen in the close race is unlikely to spur major policy shifts in Washington or Beijing. While Tsai is reluctant to roll back cross-strait relations, China has little incentive to punish the island.

Taiwan Election Too Close to Call As China and US Look on By Tania Branigan (Guardian, Jan. 13, 2012) While outsiders contemplate the election's impact on international security, Taiwan's 18 million voters seem more interested in their employment and income prospects.

Paal Endorses ‘1992 Consensus’
(Taipei Times, Jan. 13, 2012) Douglas Paal, a former director of AIT, strongly endorsed the so-called “1992 consensus” advocated by President Ma Ying-jeou, while saying DePP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s proposed “Taiwan consensus” was vague.

Former U.S. Diplomat Rattles Taiwan Before Election By Andrew Jacobs (New York Times, Jan. 14, 2012) The remarks that uttered by a former American diplomat splashed across the front pages of several Taiwanese newspapers on Friday and have kicked up a tempest, underscoring the enormous influence that the United States has on Taiwan’s adolescent democracy.

Tsai Says a Coalition Is Possible
(Taipei Times, Jan. 10, 2012) The DPP presidential candidate said that her vision of a grand coalition included dialogue and cooperation between all parties in the legislature.

DPP Tsai Ing-wen, KMT Ma Ying-jeou, and PFP James Soong’s Election Platforms (Taipei Times, Jan. 9, 2012) Taipei Times summarizes the three presidential candidates’ election platforms.

Taiwan Presidential Candidates Make Final Push Ahead of Closely Fought Vote Saturday (AP, Jan. 13, 2012) Candidates in Taiwan’s closely fought presidential election appealed for last-minute support Friday, with President Ma Ying-jeou offering his vision of better relations with China, and his main challenger attempting to galvanize resentment over growing income inequality.

Taiwan Vote Lures Back Expatriates in China By Andrew Jacobs(New York Times, Jan. 12, 2012) The growing political heft of the Taishang, the name given to the million or so Taiwanese in China who have staked their livelihoods on its expansive economy, has become a point of contention in a race that has raised existential questions about a Taiwan increasingly ensconced in Beijing’s embrace.

Why Taiwanese Election Is So Close: An Alternate Theory By Paul Mozur (China Real Time Report, Jan. 12, 2012) As Shelley Rigger said in an interview with China Real Time, the idea that Taiwan needs a strong opposition party has been part of the reason the DPP has been able to come back so quickly from its drubbing four years ago.

In China, Fascination with Taiwan Election By Josh Chin and Paul Mozur (China Real Time Report, Jan. 13, 2012) They may not have a vote, but that hasn’t kept Chinese citizens from paying close attention to Taiwan’s hotly contested elections.

Taiwan’s Other Election No Less Crucial for China Ties By James Pomfret (Reuters, Jan. 11, 2012) Taiwan’s presidential poll this weekend is the focus of much international attention, but the concurrent election to the island’s combative parliament will have almost as much impact on policy change and the pace of integration with mainland China.

America's Pacific Century

China Top Military Paper Warns U.S. Aims to Contain Rise
(Reuters, Jan. 10, 2012) The commentary in the Liberation Army Daily, however, also said China's sensible response to the U.S. military re-focus on Asia should be "vigilance" and smart diplomacy, not panic.

Pentagon Tries to Counter Cheap, Potent Weapons By Thom Shanker (New York Times, Jan. 10, 2012) President Obama’s new military strategy has focused fresh attention on an increasingly important threat: the use of inexpensive weapons like mines and cyberattacks that aim not to defeat the American military in battle but to keep it at a distance.

US to Restore Full Diplomatic Ties with Myanmar
(AP, Jan. 14, 2012) The United States is restoring full diplomatic relations with Myanmar, a landmark in the Obama administration's drive to reward democratic reforms by a government the U.S. previously treated as a pariah.

North Korea's Leadership Succession

North Korea: What Not to Do By Victor Cha(PacNet #1, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Jan. 9, 2012) Because there is so much uncertainty about the situation, it might be more useful to think about things that the US, ROK, and China should not be doing. Response to PacNet #1—North Korea: What Not to Do

U.S. Policy and U.S-China Engagement

Why Taiwan’s Future Matters By Su Chi(New York Times, Jan. 13, 2012) As the 18th-largest economy in the world and a thoroughly democratized nation, Taiwan is still perceived by some in Washington as a potential bargaining chip in crafting a new relationship with China. This is a mistake.

Taiwan Is ‘Geopolitically Endangered’: Analyst Says By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Jan. 10, 2012) Former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has listed Taiwan as a “geopolitically endangered species” in an article in the current edition of Foreign Policy magazine. 8 Geopolitically Endangered Species—Foreign Policy

Obama Panel to Watch Beijing
(Wall Street Journal, Jan. 10, 2012) President Barack Obama plans to create a U.S. government task force designed to monitor China for possible trade and other commercial violations as part of a larger White House effort to get more assertive with Beijing this election year.

Geithner Presses China on Currency, Iran
(Bloomberg, Jan. 11, 2012) U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will urge Asia’s two biggest economies to cut Iranian oil imports and seek to narrow differences with China on trade and currency disputes on a visit to Beijing and Tokyo this week.

Middle East Trip Suggests Change in Policy by China By Michael Wines (New York Times, Jan. 14, 2012) The willingness of the European Union and others to consider aggressively cutting oil purchases puts the Chinese in the awkward position of bucking most of the West’s largest economies — to preserve its ties to Iran.

PLA and Military Balance

MND Confirms Chinese Missile Tests
(Taipei Times, Jan. 10, 2012) The Ministry of National Defense confirmed that China had test-fired Julang-2 (JL-2) -submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) before the New Year.

China Pans Navy’s New Attack Boat By J. Michael Cole(Taipei Times, Jan. 12, 2012) A report in the Chinese Communist Party-run Guangming Daily said that the Kuang Hua VI fast attack missile boats were plagued by deficiencies and were a “fantasy.”

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

The Road to the 18th Party Congress By Alice Miller (China Leadership Monitor #36, Jan. 6, 2012, Hoover Institution) This article lays out the formal processes involved in preparing for the coming Chinese Communist Party’s national congress.

Procedures and Mechanism By Cheng Li (China Leadership Monitor #36, Jan. 6, 2012, Hoover Institution) This paper addressees two crucial questions: How will the delegates to the congress and the members of the new central committee be chosen? And how will the party’s ideological platform be formulated?

China’s 2012 Challenges By Andrew S. Erickson and Gabe Collins(The Diplomat, Jan. 8, 2012) Here outlined are twelve key items and issues that will help define 2012 for China, both at home and abroad.

Regional Issues

China’s Assertive Behavior—Part Three: The Role of the Military in Foreign Policy By Michael D. Swaine (China Leadership Monitor #36, Jan. 6, 2012, Hoover Institution) This article assesses what is reliably known about the role of the PLA in China’s foreign policy processes. It reviews the changing relationship of the PLA to the overall PRC leadership system and political power structure in China and focuses on the organizational and procedural relationship of the PLA to the foreign policy process in particular.