Market Rally And Existing Sell Signals
X-factor Report 25 August 2014
by Lance Roberts, Streetalk Live
Three weeks ago, as shown in the chart below, the market registered an early warning signal. The following week, as I noted in the newsletter, an initial sell signal was issued.
Since the beginning of August, the markets have staged a strong rebound, which is abnormal for this time of year, as worries about geopolitical risk were dismissed and the Federal Reserve continued to confirm their ultra-accommodative policies going forward. This rally has obviously spurred many questions asking if the rally had reversed the "sell signal."
Market Commentary: SP500 Closed At New High On Anemic Volume, Investors Concerned
Closing Market Commentary For 08-25-2014
It is never good when a new important psychological market level is reached and no one gives a hoot. The SP500 finally reached 2000 and then nothing!
By 4 pm the SP500 and the averages just ran out of steam and, unfortunately, closed below 2000, but set a new closing high - expected. The volume for the day was overall anemic and not at all supportive of the SP500's historic high with investors worried.
What We Read Today 25 August 2014
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
- New definition of retirement = work until you die: Half of Americans have little to no savings for what will likely be a long and drawn out retirement. (My Budget 360) Hat tip to Ian R. Campbell, GEIDiscussion Group, LinkedIn. Social Security was never designed to be the primary source of retirement income, yet that is all many Americans have. And it's likely to only get worse for millennials.
Fueling Road Spending with Federal Stimulus
by Sylvain Leduc and Dan Wilson - Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Highway spending in the United States between 2008 and 2011 was flat, despite the serious need for improvements and the big boost to state highway funds from the Recovery Act of 2009. A comparison of how much different states received and spent shows that these federal grants actually boosted highway spending substantially. However, this was offset by pressures to reduce state highway spending due to plummeting tax revenues. In fact, analysis suggests national highway spending would have fallen roughly 20% over this period without federal highway grants from the Recovery Act.
Turnover in Fedwire Funds Has Dropped Considerably Since the Crisis, but It's Okay
by Rodney Garratt, Antoine Martin, and James McAndrews - Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The Fedwire Funds Service is a large-value payment system, operated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, that facilitates more than $3 trillion a day in payments. Turnover in Fedwire Funds, the value of payments made for every dollar of liquidity provided, has dropped nearly 75 percent since the crisis. Should we be concerned? In this post, we explain why turnover has dropped so much and argue that it is, in fact, a good thing.
Market Commentary: Another New High For The SP500 On Anemic Volume
Midday Market Commentary For 08-25-2014
SP500 eases up again to a new high of 2001.95 and has remained withing pennies of that level since 11 this morning. We all know that the 2 K level would be a game changer and now we are waiting to see how much higher it will go.
By noon the averages were all enjoying the green glow of a bull market and expect a new closing high for the SP500 today. The caution flag has been replaced with a warning flag as the averages seem to be rolling over as volume is anemic.
Are local police forces preparing for war
News footage from protests in Ferguson looks more like a war zone than middle America.
August 2014 Texas Manufacturing Survey Rate of Growth Falls
Of the three Federal Reserve districts which have released their August manufacturing surveys, all are forecasting growth. A complete summary follows. [note that values above zero represent expansion].
July 2014 New Home Sales Improved From Terrible to Good - or Is It Just Worse?
Written by John Lounsbury and Steven Hansen
The headlines say new home sales are down.Econintersect sees the new home sales data for July 2014 drastically improved - and now the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages are positive. However the market was expecting much better data.
Read more >>
Market Commentary: SP500 Rises Above 2000 For the First Time
Opening Market Commentary For 08-25-2014
Premarkets were up +0.50% extending the exuberance from Friday's session. Markets opened likewise, gaping up whee the SP500 set a new historic high of 2000.24, crossing the 2000 mark for the first time. Note the resistance at the 2000 level was difficult to penetrate and there wasn't much enthusiasm. It appears it was all done by the HFT algo computers.
By 10 am the averages were elevated and trading sideways on low volume. I would be very cautious on any stance at this point.
A Word from This Newsletter's Sponsor
How I Made $1,900,336.82 Trading Commodities eBook
Author and Pro Standard and Poors pit trader Larry Levin is giving away the electronic edition of his award-winning book. Learn Larrys proprietary tactics that were keys to his wildly successful trading run, including his actual trade statements!
July 2014 CFNAI Super Index: Economy Continues to Expand Above the Trend Rate of Growth
Written by Steven Hansen
The economy was growing faster in July 2014 based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average - and the economy continues to expand above thehistorical trend rate of growth.
Read more >>
Will Euro Continue Decline?
EURUSD Weekly Outlook: Here's What to Watch
by Cliff Wachtel, FX Empire
FX Traders' weekly EURUSD fundamental & technical picture, this week's market drivers that could change it- the bullish, the bearish and likely EURUSD direction.
The following is a partial summary of the conclusions from the
fxempire.com weekly analysts' meeting in which we cover outlooks for the major pairs for the coming week and beyond.
Federal Court Acquits Four Charged with Mortgage Fraud
William K. Black Testimony Concerning Accounting Control Fraud Crucial for Defense
Econintersect: In what is being called an unprecedented decision, a Sacremento federal court jury has acquited four charged with fraud for submitting applications for "liars' loans. The defense attorneys argued successfully that the banks and other mortgage originators that the prosecution had identified as victims were in fact victimizing the mortgagors who signed the lairs' loan applications and received the money for purchase of a home. An article in the Sacramento Bee says that the defense presented evidence that the lenders "ignored gaping holes and blatant lies in loan applications".
Documentary of the Week: Application of Minsky to Goodwin's Cyclical Model
Steve Keen: Crash Course in Non-Equilibrium Economics Lecture 4A
Econintersect: This continues Prof. Keen's lecture series on non-equilibrium economics with discussion of the application of Financial Instability Hypothesis by Hyman Minsky which was introduced in the previous lecture (3B). This enabled the extension of the work of Richard Goodwin from fixed cycles to a functionally dynamic model. What we see happen with this formalism is the emergence of conditions of chaos. We have a model which can produce financial crisis!
Earnings and Economic Reports Week Starting 25 August
Written by Merlin Rothfeld, Online Trading Academy
Econintersect: Here is a day-by-day rundown of the global economic calendar events for the coming week and the important earnings announcements each day, as well.
Video presentation follows the Read more >> jump.
Merlin Rothfeld
Why a Return to Sound Money is Nearly Impossible
by Ron Paul, Daily Reckoning
My interest in the world of politics began in large part on Sunday, August 15, 1971. For decades, I, like all Americans, had lived in a country where it was illegal to own gold. The idea probably seems preposterous today, but there was a time when the government seized all the citizens' gold and declared gold illegal to own.
Insider Trading 22 August 2014: Priceline, Juniper Networks Selling
by Asif Suria
Insider buying dropped a little last week with insiders buying $32.38 million of stock compared to $33.73 million in the week prior. Selling increased with insiders selling $897.75 million of stock last week compared to $812.44 million in the week prior.
Sell/Buy Ratio: The insider Sell/Buy ratio is calculated by dividing the total insider sales in a given week by total insider purchases that week. The adjusted ratio for last week went up to 27.74. In other words, insiders sold almost 28 times as much stock as they purchased. The Sell/Buy ratio this week compares unfavorably with the prior week, when the ratio stood at 24.1.
Infographic of the Day: The Definitive Guide to Banned Books
Whether it's pious, political or for the public good, books have been banned ever since people could find a problem with the words on the page.
Top 10 Apps in the U.S.
from Felix Richter, Statista.com
by Mathias Brandt
With 115.4 million unique visitors in the U.S., Facebook is the number one mobile app by far.
