January 2015 Economic Forecast: Some Slowing In Growth Due to Government and Business Sectors
Written by Steven Hansen
Our January 2015 Economic Forecast continues to show a stable and growing economy - with a modest decline in growth from last month. All portions of the economy outside our economic model - except housing - are showing expansion. There are no warning signs the economy is faltering, but there are some restraining dynamics.
Read more >>
Market Commentary: SP500 Closes At New High, DOW Closes In The Red
Closing Market Commentary For 12-29-2014
Afternoon trading was trending up towards the session highs on mostly miniscule volume until 5 minutes before the closing bell when some investors decided to lighten their portfolios a bit. The drop was fractional and not entirely unexpected after watching today's session being manipulated by the HFT computers.
Late BTFDers at the close saved the session from being worse than it could have been. The low volume made day-trading next to impossible. The SP500 closed at a new high while the $NDX and DOW closed in the red.
What We Read Today 29 December 2014
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
Japan govt approves $29 billion stimulus spending, impact in doubt (Reuters) Japan's government approved on Saturday stimulus spending worth $29 billion aimed at helping the country's lagging regions and households with subsidies, merchandise vouchers and other steps, but analysts are skeptical about how much it can spur growth.
Market Commentary: Averages Trade In Quiet Session, SP500 Melts Up To New High
Midday Market Commentary For 12-29-2014
The SP500 edged past the old high by 0.78 points to record what might be called a double top, but we have seen this behavior before. Very quiet session as volume falls to anemic levels with the oils and gold declining.
By noon the averages were trading sideways at session highs on very low volume levels. Mr. Market is being jerked around by the HFT algo computers and investors should not get caught up in this.
Italy ferry: Helicopter rescues in treacherous conditions
Passengers on the Italian ferry, which caught fire in the Adriatic Sea, being airlifted to safety on Sunday (December 29). Italian and Greek helicopter crews prepared to work through the night to rescue passengers from the burning ferry, battling darkness and bad weather.
December 2014 Texas Manufacturing Survey Rate of Growth Rose Strongly
Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their December manufacturing surveys, four are forecasting growth. A complete summary follows. [note that values above zero represent expansion].
Market Commentary: Markets Open Down, Melt Up To Green On Falling Volume
Opening Market Commentary For 12-29-2014
Premarkets were down -0.3% and moved to -0.1% prior to the opening. Markets opened down and flat and quickly melted up fractionally to green remaining flat.
By 10 am the averages were in the green while the $RUT was up +0.4% on falling volume.
Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis on Significant Natural Disasters in 2014
by CoreLogic
CoreLogic released its annual Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis detailing the most significant natural disasters of 2014 and providing several projections for 2015. The report provides a look at the year's hurricanes, floods, hailstorms, tornados, wildfires, sinkholes, earthquakes, tropical cyclones and typhoon events in the U.S. as well as an international snapshot of the hazard events that imposed significant damage across the globe.
Is Quarter-over-Quarter or Year-over-Year Growth a Better Way to Measure GDP
by Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, David Lucca, and Emanuel Moench - Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP) is a conventional indicator of the economy's health. But the two ways of measuring annual GDP growth can give very different answers. In 2013, GDP grew 2.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, but at a faster 3.1 percent rate on a Q4-over-Q4 basis. So, which measure is more meaningful? We show in this post that the Q4/Q4 metric is better since it only considers quarterly growth rates during the current year, while the Year/Year measure depends on quarterly growth rates in both the current and previous year and puts considerable weight on growth around the turn of the year.
Christmas Facts 2014
by Felix Richter, Statista.com
The Christmas season is upon us, so we at Statista are taking a little break to think about new ideas for interesting charts and infographics.
Oil Prices: A True Black Swan or the Work of Vultures?
Special Report from Money Morning
by Kent Moors, Money Morning
Oil prices are struggling to stabilize in the wake of what some are calling a "black swan" event.
It refers to a theory popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a well-known risk analyst and statistician.
A black swan is an outlier, a development that fails to follow any normal pattern.
The Delusional Crowd
Age of Wisdom, Age of Foolishness (56)
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com
'Add your voice to the sound of the crowd.'
The proverbial crowd was busy all over the world the last few weeks, being delusional and creating the illusion of a lynch mob in the specific localities where it was to be found.
Read more >>
Six Months From Now, You Could Be Rolling In Money From Oil Gains
by Jody Chudley, Daily Reckoning
One of my very favorite investors is Bruce Berkowitz, who manages the Fairholme Fund. I love the way the man invests.
His portfolio is concentrated on his very best ideas, most of which are highly contrarian. At one point after the global financial crisis, he had an incredible 40% of his fund invested in the universally hated AIG (which has since doubled)!
Infographic of the Day: 50 Apps to Track Everything in your Life
Modern mobile technology is powerful, and apparently, so is our need to track almost everything we do.
Earnings and Economic Reports: Week Starting 29 December
Written by Merlin Rothfeld, Online Trading Academy
Econintersect: Here is a day-by-day rundown of the global economic calendar events for the coming week and the important earnings announcements each day, as well.
Video presentation follows the Read more >> jump.
Merlin Rothfeld
Peak Oil Was Nonsense and the Ghost of the 1981 Oil Price Crash Looms
by Ryan W. McMaken, Mises.org
Peak Oil Was Nonsense, and the Ghost of the 1981 Oil Price Crash Looms
Oil man T. Boone Pickens was on CNBC this morning and brought up the early 1980s crash in oil prices as a possible example of what could be in store for the oil industry today. He notes that the number of rigs operating in the US in 1981 was cut in half 12 months later. He warned that oil producers in the US may be looking at cuts of 30 to 40 percent in oil production. I made comparisons to 1981 here.
Insider Trading 26 December 2014: Insiders Have Outperformed the Market
by Asif Suria
We have been publishing these posts continuously for over 4.5 years and it has been a great learning experience. While insiders as a group have outperformed the market more often than not, they are also often early and sometimes completely wrong. One key advantage we have found of following this strategy is that it brings companies to our attention that would have otherwise not been on our radar. We hope this this information has been useful to you and are planning on launching an updated version of the site in 2015 that will add additional features and expand the scope of the data we provide.
Medscape Ethics Report 2014, Part 1: Life, Death, and Pain
Econintersect: The summary from Medscape, written by Leslie Kane, MA:
Physicians grapple with many wrenching decisions throughout their medical careers. Some situations involve whether to prolong or bring an end to patients' lives; others spark heated debates among physicians with different values. More than 21,000 physicians told Medscape how they feel about medicine's most critical issues. Respondents included more than 17,000 US and 4000 European physicians. This slideshow reports the US physicians' results. Representative respondent comments are also shown, to shed more light on the issues at hand.
Access to full report follows the Read more >> jump.
Medscape Ethics Report 2014, Part 2: Money, Romance, and Patients
Econintersect: Ethical dilemmas involving money, patients, and romance arise regularly throughout a physician's career. The way physicians choose to deal with them reflects each doctor's individual values and personality, which sometimes may be at odds with the rigorous standards of the profession. More than 21,000 physicians told Medscape how they feel about medicine's most critical issues, including more than 17,000 US physicians and almost 4000 European physicians. This report, prepared by Leslie Kane, MA, covers US physicians' responses.
Access to full report follows the Read more >> jump.
