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| Note
to Readers
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Dear readers,
In 2014, the Taiwan Security Research (TSR) launched
its first ever interview series. We thank Richard Bush, Bonnie Glaser, Douglas
Paal, Alan Romberg, and Robert Sutter for generously sharing their insights with
TSR's readers. The TSR team is happy to announce that the interview series will
become monthly production in 2015.
We appreciate readers' support in the
past year and wish readers all the sucess in 2015!
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| South
China Sea Disputes and Other Regional Issues
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Chinese Challenge: Australia's Japan Choice (2014-07-17)
(YaleGlobal,
By Evelyn Goh) Most Asian nations do not see any option other than a closely
entwined future with China and criticize Beijing with caution. Australia under
conservative Prime Minister Tony Abbott, in advancing defense cooperation with
Japan, is bucking that trend, a stance that poses long-term strategic
challenges.
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| Diaoyutai
Disputes Resurface and Japan Policy
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Tokyo's Moral Backsliding (2014-01-21)
(Wall
Street Journal, By Kak-Soo Shin) Amid growing strategic instability, every
nation should desist from acts that could aggravate tensions in the region.
Along with reinforcing its alliance with the U.S., Japan should pursue regional
security architecture.
Abe, Xi: How Much Can They Really Achieve? (2014-11-11)
(Taipei
Times, By Ralph Cossa) A grand bargain still appears possible which would allow
both Japan and China to put the Diaoyutai/Senkaku issue back on the shelf,
assuming both are willing to accept a win-win solution that trades a de facto
admission by Japan that the islands are in dispute for an acknowledgement by
Beijing that the islands are today under Tokyo’s administrative
control.
The China-Japan Detente Examined Through the Soviet
Prism (2014-12-26)
(The
Diplomat, By Miguel Oropeza De Cortéz-Caballero) Xi and his inner circle may
view last month’s shift not as stemming from the realities of economic
interdependence and skillful diplomacy but from a Japanese realization that
accommodations are needed for a rapidly growing China.
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| U.S.
Pivot to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
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(Re)Defining
the “New Type of Major Country Relations” between the United States and
China (2014-01-13)
(PacNet
#4, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Ely Ratner) Although the slogan “a new type of major
country relationship” is here to stay (for now), still to be determined are the
ways in which it will shape the behaviors of China, the United States, and the
region.
Mr. Obama:
Focus on Alliance Management, Not Rebalancing Rhetoric (2014-04-21)
(PacNet
#32, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Jeffrey W. Hornung) Many of Washington’s allies’
anxieties are, at their core, alliance issues rather than rebalance
issues.
The US and
China: Sliding from Engagement to Coercive Diplomacy (2014-08-04)
(PacNet
#63, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By David M. Lampton) If Beijing wants to improve
relations with Washington, the easiest, quickest, and most mutually beneficial
path is to improve relations with its own periphery.
Response to
PacNet#63 “The US and China: Sliding from Engagement to Coercive
Diplomacy” (2014-08-19)
(PacNet
#63R, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Joseph Bosco and David Lampton) It was Beijing‟s
military buildup, expansionist rhetoric, and aggressive actions that engendered
the “insecurities” of other countries, not the other way
around.
If You Want Rule of Law, Respect Ours (2014-11-04)
(Foreign
Policy, By Isaac Stone Fish) China's ambassador to the United States on the
problems with American elections, Obama's trip to Beijing, and fighting the
Islamic State.
Beijing APEC Summit at the Apex (2014-11-11)
(Project
Syndicate, By Kevin Rudd) It is imperative that both China and the United States
try to close the trust deficit. Doing so calls for a framework of “constructive
realism.”
US-China
Diplomacy and Grand Strategy (2014-12-11)
(China
Foundation for International and Security Studies, By Robert D. Blackwill) Given
the irreconcilable grand strategies of the United States and China, the current
quality of bilateral diplomacy is insufficient to avoid the danger of an
eventual sustained confrontation between the two countries.
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| DPP
Searches for New China Stance; Cross-Strait Issues
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China, We Fear You (2014-03-21)
(Foreign
Policy, By Richard Chiou-Yuan Lu) The truth is that if the counterparty to the
agreement were a country other than China -- or a democratized China that would
treat Taiwan as an equal and stop trying to achieve its political agenda through
business, and didn't want to swallow us up -- we'd happily accept the
pact.
What Taipei's Protesters Know (2014-03-27)
(Wall
Street Journal) The student-led occupation of Taiwan's legislature concerns much
more than a pending Taiwan-China trade agreement. Six years of warming relations
between Taipei and Beijing—and of relative calm across the explosive Taiwan
Strait—may now be coming to an end.
The U.S. Can Help Calm Taiwan's Political Storm (2014-04-02)
(Wall
Street Journal, By Rupert Hammond-Chambers) By publicly declaring its backing
for Taiwan's bilateral and multilateral economic ambitions—including a bilateral
investment agreement with Washington and a path to participation in TPP—the U.S.
would lend invaluable support to peace and stability cross-Strait
relations.
PRC ‘Short-Sighted’ on Taiwan: Richard Bush (2014-12-22)
(Taipei
Times, By Williwm Lowther) Taiwan’s “relative marginalization” was not due to
anything idiosyncratic about the nation, but rather how China has pursued its
long-standing political goal of unification, Richard Bush said.
Sunflowers Movement Is a ‘Wake-Up Call’ (2014-04-21)
(Taipei
Times, By Shih Hsiu-Chuan) The student-led Sunflower movement should be treated
as “a wake-up call” not only for Taiwan, but also for the US and other countries
as they ponder Taiwan’s future in the face of China’s expansionism, William
Stanton said.
KMT Election Loss Not a Referendum on Cross-Strait Policy: DPP's
Joseph Wu (2014-12-04)
(Taipei
Times, By William Lowther) In the US capital to brief officials and academics on
the election results, Joseph Wu repeatedly said that the DPP wants to reduce
mistrust with China and keep relations across the Taiwan Strait peaceful and
stable.
Taiwan a ‘Flashpoint’: US Group (2014-12-10)
(Taipei
Times, By William Lowther) Taiwan is poised to become a “worrisome flashpoint”
in US-China relations, according to a Washington think tank.
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| Taiwan's
Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
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Ma Cannot Hide Behind a Vincent Siew Shield (2014-01-19)
(Taipei
Times, By Julian Kuo) Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng has pointed out that
before trade talks can begin, Congress must first authorize talks, and
representatives of both Congress and the Senate will participate in the talks
and report back to Congress, which makes for a smooth review process. That was
why Wang called for the establishment of a legislative task force for handling
cross-strait affairs.
Beyond the Cross-Strait Trade in Service Agreement: Seeking a “2014
Consensus” for Taiwan (2014-04-30)
(Brookings,
By Kuei-bo Huang) It does not make sense that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait
could reach the “1992 Consensus,” which has undeniably paved the way for risk
reduction in and the enhancement of cross-Strait relations since President Ma
was inaugurated in May 2008, while Taiwan’s own people and political parties,
even if they may have different ideas about TiSA and cross-Strait and regional
economic strategies, can’t attain some kind of sensible consensus as to how the
current dispute can be shelved or dealt with
constructively.
Future Society Indicator for Politics (2014-12-08)
(Taipei
Times, By Wang Yeh-lih) This time, a group of independent voters joined forces
with DPP supporters to deliver a rout for the KMT and to hand the DPP 13 cities
and counties, plus Taipei. However, that does not mean that this coalition will
necessarily identify themselves with the DPP over the long
term.
Challenges
Ahead for All: Ko, the DPP, the KMT, the US, and China (2014-12-22)
(PacNet
#90, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Bill Sharp) To capture the presidency in 2016, the
DPP not only needs to govern at the local level, but it also must create an
economic policy that will pump life back into the hollowed out Taiwan economy
created by the KMT.
The Taiwan Relations Act at 35 (2014-04-16)
(Brookings,
By Richard C. Bush III) Because the TRA is more policy and political commitment
than binding mandate, that commitment must be renewed by new groups of leaders
to address new circumstances that weren’t contemplated in
1979.
Americans ‘Neutral’ on Taiwan; China Not a Threat:
Poll (2014-09-18)
(Taipei
Times) Americans have relatively “neutral” feelings about Taiwan and a large
majority feel the US should not send troops to defend Taiwan if it is invaded by
China, a survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found. Foreign
Policy in the Age of Retrenchment
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| China's
Rise and Its Domestic Issues
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Party of the Century (2014-01-10)
(Foreign
Affairs, By Eric X. Li) Coming just a year after China’s latest leadership
transition, the November Plenum offered the most concrete look at how the
country’s top leader, General Secretary Xi Jinping, intends to
lead.
China's Unprecedented Political Reforms (2014-01-19)
(The
Diplomat, By Elizabeth C. Economy) President Xi’s brand of political reform may
represent Eric Li’s personal China dream but he should allow that for millions
of other Chinese, political reform has little to do with more power to the Party
and everything to do with more power to the people.
Ukraine--A Case for Chinese Involvement (2014-03-10)
(The
Diplomat, By Andong Peng) China is mistaken to sit back and do nothing on
Ukraine, because there is something at stake. There is one issue which it cares
deeply about: Taiwan. And the Russian seizure of the Crimea provides an
interesting template for China as to how eventual reunification might take place
in the “worst case” scenario, namely through force.
Leader Asserts China's Growing Importance on Global
Stage (2014-12-01)
(New
York Times, By Jane Perlez) Sounding confident after a burst of high-profile
diplomacy, President Xi Jinping told Communist Party officials in a major
address here over the weekend that China would be nice to its neighbors in Asia
but that he would run an active foreign policy and be relentless in promoting
China’s rejuvenation onto the global stage.
China's Big Diplomacy Shift (2014-12-22)
(The
Diplomat, By Timothy Heath) China’s decision to elevate in priority its
relationship with its neighbors over that with the United States and other great
powers suggests that over time, China may grow even less tolerant of Western
interference in PRC interests and more confident in consolidating control of its
core interests and pressing demands to reform the international
order.
What Next for Hong Kong? (2014-12-05)
(New
York Times, By Benny Tai Yu-ting) The Umbrella Movement has awakened the
democratic aspirations of a whole generation of Hong Kong people. In this sense,
we have achieved much more than what we could have hoped for.
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| TSR's
Own Production
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TSR Interview with Dr. Robert Sutter (2014-06-19)
(Taiwan
Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research’s Kristian
McGuire speaks with
Dr. Robert Sutter,
Professor of Practice of International Affairs at the Elliott School of George
Washington University, about China’s perspectives on the recent coup in
Thailand, the alignment between Vietnam and the Philippines on the South China
Sea disputes, and the public outcry in Hong Kong over the territory’s democratic
prospect as well as its implications for Taiwan.
TSR Interview with Dr. Richard Bush (2014-07-03)
(Taiwan
Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research’s Kristian
McGuire speaks with
Dr. Richard Bush,
a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and holder of the Chen-Fu and
Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies, about Clinton's warning about economic
dependence on China, TAO Minister Zhang Zhijun's unprecedented visit to Taiwan,
and more in this TSR exclusive interview.
TSR Interview with Alan Romberg (2014-07-30)
(Taiwan
Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research's Kristian
McGuire speaks with Alan Romberg, distinguished fellow and director of the East
Asia program at the Stimson Center, about the independence clause issue, the
recent National Conference on Economic and Trade Affairs, and more in this TSR
exclusiveinterview.
TSR Interview with Douglas Paal (2014-09-09)
(Taiwan
Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research's Kristian
McGuire speaks with Douglas Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace and former director of the American Institute
in Taiwan, about the current state of the East China Sea Peace Initiative,
Taiwan's place in the United States' Asia strategy, and more in this TSR
exclusive interview.
TSR Interview with Bonnie Glaser (2014-09-25)
(Taiwan
Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research's Kristian
McGuire speaks with Bonnie Glaser about Taiwan's participation in the
international community, President Ma Ying-jeou's bid to meet President Xi
Jinping at November's APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Beijing, and more in
this TSR exclusive interview.
The Cross-Taiwan Strait Diplomatic Truce in the
Pacific (2014-10-27)
(Pacific
Islands Society, By Dalton Lin) The cross-Taiwan Strait diplomatic truce built
upon a consensus of common interests is fragile, and any cracks in this
consensus can quickly torpedo the armistice. The resumption of a cross-strait
diplomatic antagonism, unfortunately, will serve no party’s interests. Neither
China nor Taiwan. Nor the PICs.
Executive
Editor: Dalton Lin
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