Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Friday 2 January 2015

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2014-12-31 | NO.1 epaper |
Note to Readers
Dear readers,

In 2014, the Taiwan Security Research (TSR) launched its first ever interview series. We thank Richard Bush, Bonnie Glaser, Douglas Paal, Alan Romberg, and Robert Sutter for generously sharing their insights with TSR's readers. The TSR team is happy to announce that the interview series will become monthly production in 2015.

We appreciate readers' support in the past year and wish readers all the sucess in 2015!

South China Sea Disputes and Other Regional Issues
Chinese Challenge: Australia's Japan Choice (2014-07-17)
(YaleGlobal, By Evelyn Goh) Most Asian nations do not see any option other than a closely entwined future with China and criticize Beijing with caution. Australia under conservative Prime Minister Tony Abbott, in advancing defense cooperation with Japan, is bucking that trend, a stance that poses long-term strategic challenges. 
Diaoyutai Disputes Resurface and Japan Policy
Tokyo's Moral Backsliding (2014-01-21)
(Wall Street Journal, By Kak-Soo Shin) Amid growing strategic instability, every nation should desist from acts that could aggravate tensions in the region. Along with reinforcing its alliance with the U.S., Japan should pursue regional security architecture.

Abe, Xi: How Much Can They Really Achieve? (2014-11-11)
(Taipei Times, By Ralph Cossa) A grand bargain still appears possible which would allow both Japan and China to put the Diaoyutai/Senkaku issue back on the shelf, assuming both are willing to accept a win-win solution that trades a de facto admission by Japan that the islands are in dispute for an acknowledgement by Beijing that the islands are today under Tokyo’s administrative control.
The China-Japan Detente Examined Through the Soviet Prism (2014-12-26)
(The Diplomat, By Miguel Oropeza De Cortéz-Caballero) Xi and his inner circle may view last month’s shift not as stemming from the realities of economic interdependence and skillful diplomacy but from a Japanese realization that accommodations are needed for a rapidly growing China.
U.S. Pivot to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
(Re)Defining the “New Type of Major Country Relations” between the United States and China (2014-01-13)
(PacNet #4, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Ely Ratner) Although the slogan “a new type of major country relationship” is here to stay (for now), still to be determined are the ways in which it will shape the behaviors of China, the United States, and the region.

Mr. Obama: Focus on Alliance Management, Not Rebalancing Rhetoric (2014-04-21)
(PacNet #32, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Jeffrey W. Hornung) Many of Washington’s allies’ anxieties are, at their core, alliance issues rather than rebalance issues.
The US and China: Sliding from Engagement to Coercive Diplomacy (2014-08-04)
(PacNet #63, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By David M. Lampton) If Beijing wants to improve relations with Washington, the easiest, quickest, and most mutually beneficial path is to improve relations with its own periphery.
Response to PacNet#63 “The US and China: Sliding from Engagement to Coercive Diplomacy” (2014-08-19)
(PacNet #63R, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Joseph Bosco and David Lampton) It was Beijing‟s military buildup, expansionist rhetoric, and aggressive actions that engendered the “insecurities” of other countries, not the other way around.
If You Want Rule of Law, Respect Ours (2014-11-04)
(Foreign Policy, By Isaac Stone Fish) China's ambassador to the United States on the problems with American elections, Obama's trip to Beijing, and fighting the Islamic State.
Beijing APEC Summit at the Apex (2014-11-11)
(Project Syndicate, By Kevin Rudd) It is imperative that both China and the United States try to close the trust deficit. Doing so calls for a framework of “constructive realism.”
US-China Diplomacy and Grand Strategy (2014-12-11)
(China Foundation for International and Security Studies, By Robert D. Blackwill) Given the irreconcilable grand strategies of the United States and China, the current quality of bilateral diplomacy is insufficient to avoid the danger of an eventual sustained confrontation between the two countries.

DPP Searches for New China Stance; Cross-Strait Issues
China, We Fear You (2014-03-21)
(Foreign Policy, By Richard Chiou-Yuan Lu) The truth is that if the counterparty to the agreement were a country other than China -- or a democratized China that would treat Taiwan as an equal and stop trying to achieve its political agenda through business, and didn't want to swallow us up -- we'd happily accept the pact.

What Taipei's Protesters Know
 (2014-03-27)
(Wall Street Journal) The student-led occupation of Taiwan's legislature concerns much more than a pending Taiwan-China trade agreement. Six years of warming relations between Taipei and Beijing—and of relative calm across the explosive Taiwan Strait—may now be coming to an end.

The U.S. Can Help Calm Taiwan's Political Storm (2014-04-02)
(Wall Street Journal, By Rupert Hammond-Chambers) By publicly declaring its backing for Taiwan's bilateral and multilateral economic ambitions—including a bilateral investment agreement with Washington and a path to participation in TPP—the U.S. would lend invaluable support to peace and stability cross-Strait relations.
PRC ‘Short-Sighted’ on Taiwan: Richard Bush (2014-12-22)
(Taipei Times, By Williwm Lowther) Taiwan’s “relative marginalization” was not due to anything idiosyncratic about the nation, but rather how China has pursued its long-standing political goal of unification, Richard Bush said.
Sunflowers Movement Is a ‘Wake-Up Call’ (2014-04-21)
(Taipei Times, By Shih Hsiu-Chuan) The student-led Sunflower movement should be treated as “a wake-up call” not only for Taiwan, but also for the US and other countries as they ponder Taiwan’s future in the face of China’s expansionism, William Stanton said.
KMT Election Loss Not a Referendum on Cross-Strait Policy: DPP's Joseph Wu (2014-12-04)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) In the US capital to brief officials and academics on the election results, Joseph Wu repeatedly said that the DPP wants to reduce mistrust with China and keep relations across the Taiwan Strait peaceful and stable.

Taiwan a ‘Flashpoint’: US Group (2014-12-10)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) Taiwan is poised to become a “worrisome flashpoint” in US-China relations, according to a Washington think tank.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Ma Cannot Hide Behind a Vincent Siew Shield  (2014-01-19)
(Taipei Times, By Julian Kuo) Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng has pointed out that before trade talks can begin, Congress must first authorize talks, and representatives of both Congress and the Senate will participate in the talks and report back to Congress, which makes for a smooth review process. That was why Wang called for the establishment of a legislative task force for handling cross-strait affairs.

Beyond the Cross-Strait Trade in Service Agreement: Seeking a “2014 Consensus” for Taiwan (2014-04-30)
(Brookings, By Kuei-bo Huang) It does not make sense that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait could reach the “1992 Consensus,” which has undeniably paved the way for risk reduction in and the enhancement of cross-Strait relations since President Ma was inaugurated in May 2008, while Taiwan’s own people and political parties, even if they may have different ideas about TiSA and cross-Strait and regional economic strategies, can’t attain some kind of sensible consensus as to how the current dispute can be shelved or dealt with constructively.
Future Society Indicator for Politics (2014-12-08)
(Taipei Times, By Wang Yeh-lih) This time, a group of independent voters joined forces with DPP supporters to deliver a rout for the KMT and to hand the DPP 13 cities and counties, plus Taipei. However, that does not mean that this coalition will necessarily identify themselves with the DPP over the long term.
Challenges Ahead for All: Ko, the DPP, the KMT, the US, and China (2014-12-22)
(PacNet #90, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Bill Sharp) To capture the presidency in 2016, the DPP not only needs to govern at the local level, but it also must create an economic policy that will pump life back into the hollowed out Taiwan economy created by the KMT.

The Taiwan Relations Act at 35 (2014-04-16)
(Brookings, By Richard C. Bush III) Because the TRA is more policy and political commitment than binding mandate, that commitment must be renewed by new groups of leaders to address new circumstances that weren’t contemplated in 1979.
Americans ‘Neutral’ on Taiwan; China Not a Threat: Poll (2014-09-18)
(Taipei Times) Americans have relatively “neutral” feelings about Taiwan and a large majority feel the US should not send troops to defend Taiwan if it is invaded by China, a survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found. Foreign Policy in the Age of Retrenchment

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
Party of the Century (2014-01-10)
(Foreign Affairs, By Eric X. Li) Coming just a year after China’s latest leadership transition, the November Plenum offered the most concrete look at how the country’s top leader, General Secretary Xi Jinping, intends to lead.
China's Unprecedented Political Reforms (2014-01-19)
(The Diplomat, By Elizabeth C. Economy) President Xi’s brand of political reform may represent Eric Li’s personal China dream but he should allow that for millions of other Chinese, political reform has little to do with more power to the Party and everything to do with more power to the people.
Ukraine--A Case for Chinese Involvement (2014-03-10)
(The Diplomat, By Andong Peng) China is mistaken to sit back and do nothing on Ukraine, because there is something at stake. There is one issue which it cares deeply about: Taiwan. And the Russian seizure of the Crimea provides an interesting template for China as to how eventual reunification might take place in the “worst case” scenario, namely through force.
Leader Asserts China's Growing Importance on Global Stage (2014-12-01)
(New York Times, By Jane Perlez) Sounding confident after a burst of high-profile diplomacy, President Xi Jinping told Communist Party officials in a major address here over the weekend that China would be nice to its neighbors in Asia but that he would run an active foreign policy and be relentless in promoting China’s rejuvenation onto the global stage.
China's Big Diplomacy Shift (2014-12-22)
(The Diplomat, By Timothy Heath) China’s decision to elevate in priority its relationship with its neighbors over that with the United States and other great powers suggests that over time, China may grow even less tolerant of Western interference in PRC interests and more confident in consolidating control of its core interests and pressing demands to reform the international order.
What Next for Hong Kong? (2014-12-05)
(New York Times, By Benny Tai Yu-ting) The Umbrella Movement has awakened the democratic aspirations of a whole generation of Hong Kong people. In this sense, we have achieved much more than what we could have hoped for.

TSR's Own Production
TSR Interview with Dr. Robert Sutter (2014-06-19)
(Taiwan Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research’s Kristian McGuire speaks with Dr. Robert Sutter, Professor of Practice of International Affairs at the Elliott School of George Washington University, about China’s perspectives on the recent coup in Thailand, the alignment between Vietnam and the Philippines on the South China Sea disputes, and the public outcry in Hong Kong over the territory’s democratic prospect as well as its implications for Taiwan.

TSR Interview with Dr. Richard Bush
 (2014-07-03)
(Taiwan Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research’s Kristian McGuire speaks with Dr. Richard Bush, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and holder of the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies, about Clinton's warning about economic dependence on China, TAO Minister Zhang Zhijun's unprecedented visit to Taiwan, and more in this TSR exclusive interview.

TSR Interview with Alan Romberg
 (2014-07-30)
(Taiwan Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research's Kristian McGuire speaks with Alan Romberg, distinguished fellow and director of the East Asia program at the Stimson Center, about the independence clause issue, the recent National Conference on Economic and Trade Affairs, and more in this TSR exclusiveinterview.

TSR Interview with Douglas Paal
 (2014-09-09)
(Taiwan Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research's Kristian McGuire speaks with Douglas Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former director of the American Institute in Taiwan, about the current state of the East China Sea Peace Initiative, Taiwan's place in the United States' Asia strategy, and more in this TSR exclusive interview.

TSR Interview with Bonnie Glaser
 (2014-09-25)
(Taiwan Security Research, By Kristian McGuire) Taiwan Security Research's Kristian McGuire speaks with Bonnie Glaser about Taiwan's participation in the international community, President Ma Ying-jeou's bid to meet President Xi Jinping at November's APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Beijing, and more in this TSR exclusive interview.

The Cross-Taiwan Strait Diplomatic Truce in the Pacific (2014-10-27)
(Pacific Islands Society, By Dalton Lin) The cross-Taiwan Strait diplomatic truce built upon a consensus of common interests is fragile, and any cracks in this consensus can quickly torpedo the armistice. The resumption of a cross-strait diplomatic antagonism, unfortunately, will serve no party’s interests. Neither China nor Taiwan. Nor the PICs.

Executive Editor: Dalton Lin
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