Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Aug. 21, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Biden Visits China

Biden to Build Rapport with China VP
(China Daily, Aug. 16, 2011) "Simply put, we're investing in the future of the US-China relationship," said Tony Blinken, Biden's national security adviser, in a conference call.

Xi Jinping, Likely China’s Next Leader, Called Pragmatic, Low-Key By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Aug. 15, 2011) Those who have seen Xi’s working style in the two provinces, Fujian and Zhejiang, where he spent more than two decades in various jobs working his way up to the top position, use similar words to describe him: pragmatic, serious, cautious, hard-working, down to earth and low-key.

US Committed to Taiwan: White House
(AFP, Aug. 16, 2011) A White House official pledged that the United States will remain committed to Taiwan's defense after a report said that Washington has rejected the island's pitch to buy F-16 fighter jets.

Reading the Tea Leaves on Biden’s Trip to China By Brian Spegele(China Realtime Report, Aug. 17, 2011) In an interview with Caijing magazine, known for its muckraking and clashes with press censors, Mr. Biden’s delivered an unequivocal message for China, the U.S.’s biggest foreign creditor: The U.S. is stable.

Cooperation Is Emphasized As Biden Opens Talks in China
(New York Times, Aug. 18, 2011) Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. praised China’s rapid economic ascent while his Chinese counterpart emphasized cooperation between China and the United States.

Biden Assures China on Its U.S. Investments By Keith B. Richburg
(Washington Post, Aug. 19, 2011) After another day of turmoil in world financial markets, Vice President Biden sought to assure China, the United States’ largest foreign creditor, that its investments in U.S. Treasury securities are safe.

China Brings Up Arms Sales with Biden
(Taipei Times, Aug. 20, 2011) The “deeply sensitive” issue of arms sales to Taiwan was raised during Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping’s first meeting with US Vice President Joe Biden in Beijing.

Biden Visits Chinese Boom Town
(AFP, Aug. 21, 2011) U.S. Vice President Joe Biden witnessed China's economic awakening at first hand with a visit to the boom town of Chengdu, as an apparent crackdown on dissent accompanied his visit.

Fate of China-US Relations By Tong Kim(Korea Times, Aug. 21, 2011) There should be little reason to worry that China’s rise will lead to war with, or push out, the U.S. from the region. But, America may decide to leave Asia on its own at some point, and more likely from Korea first.

Cross-Strait Issues

Beijing’s Intention in Cross-Straits Ties By Frank Ching(Korea Times, Aug. 18, 2011) Beijing evidently believes that while this is a two-way street, it has a better chance of winning the support of Taiwanese than Taiwan has of winning over the hearts and minds of mainlanders.

U.S. Policy

Geography Is Not Fate; Taiwan Still Has Options By Nat Bellocchi(Taipei Times, Aug. 15, 2011) If push comes to shove, I am sure the US will be there for Taiwan, to ensure Taiwanese are free to decide their own future. Taiwan is of strategic importance to the US because it is an anchor for democracy in East Asia.

Military Balance and Arms Sales

Mainland China’s Military Development and Taiwan’s Countermeasures By Andrew Yang (Brookings, August 2011) With the insistence on the value of democracy, the ROC is now proceeding toward volunteer forces and defense transformation in an attempt to build modernized “Hard ROC” defense forces and demonstrate its determination to safeguard national security and maintaining the stability in the Strait.

F-16C/D Deal for Taiwan Dead: Report. Michael Cole(Taipei Times, Aug. 15, 2011) Taiwan will not be getting the 66 F-16C/D aircraft it has been requesting since 2007, a Ministry of National Defense official has confirmed, and fewer of its older F-16s will be retrofitted.

2012 Presidential Election and Taiwan's Domestic Issues

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(TVBS, Aug. 15, 2011) If respondents were to vote tomorrow, 46% would vote for Ma Ying-jeou while 39%, Tsai Ing-wen.

UDN Opinion Polls on 2012 Presidential and Legislative Elections
(UDN, Aug. 15, 2011) In the most recent poll conducted by the United Daily News five months before the 2012 Presidential election, 44% of the respondents stated that they supported KMT Presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou and 36% DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen.

Fiscal Balance a Priority in the First Unveiling of DPP Policy Guidelines (Taipei Times, Aug. 17, 2011) The Democratic Progressive Party is ready to turn around the nation’s miserable fiscal situation by cutting the deficit in half in four years if it regains power in January’s presidential election, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen said.

Tsai Makes Policy Proposals on Balanced Development
(Taipei Times, Aug. 18, 2011) Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen proposed decentralizing fiscal and political power to turn Taiwan into a multi-core nation with balanced regional development that would benefit the next generation.

Tsai Unveils Public-Oriented Housing Policy
(Taipei Times, Aug. 19, 2011) A fair property tax system, public housing, development of rental housing and large-scale urban regeneration will be the four pillars of the DPP’s housing policy, the party said.

Tsai Releases Education Platform
(Taipei Times, Aug. 20, 2011) Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson Tsai Ying-jeou unveiled her education policy, pledging to implement a mandatory 12-year school program in one fell swoop if she is elected in January’s presidential election.

DPP Must Clarify Its China Policy By David Brown(Taipei Times, Aug. 19, 2011) Tsai has spoken only in generalities and while such generalities preserve flexibility for the future, they leave Beijing, Washington and Taiwanese voters uncertain about what the future might hold on a potentially explosive issue.

Taiwan Economy Sees Strong Growth, Losing Momentum
(AFP, Aug. 19, 2011) Taiwan's economy grew a better-than-expected 5.02 percent in the second quarter of 2011 due to strong exports and domestic spending, but it is losing momentum, the government said.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

China Moves Swiftly to Close Chemical Plant After Protests
(New York Times, Aug. 15, 2011) Municipal leaders in a northeastern Chinese port city quickly announced plans to shut down a chemical plant after thousands of protesters confronted riot police officers and demanded that it be closed because of safety concerns.

Protest Over Chemical Plant Shows Growing Pressure on China From Citizens By Sharon LaFraniere and Michael Wines (New York Times, Aug. 16, 2011) More than international prestige or even economic might, the top priority of China’s leadership is to maintain stability among this nation’s vast and varied population.

China Environmental Protests a Victory for People Over Party? Not So Past By Russell Leigh Moses (China Realtime Report, Aug. 17, 2011) Public resistance and activism can prompt leaders to pause, and even reverse decisions that provoke outrage. And sometimes, as in Dalian, they might move to accelerate a plan that’s already been approved. But that’s about all.

China Issues 20B Yuan Treasury Bonds in Hong Kong
(China Daily, Aug. 17, 2011) China’s Deputy Financial Minister said the central government would continue issuing renminbi treasury bonds in Hong Kong, which were aimed to build Hong Kong into an offshore renminbi business center.

Taiwan: Why Can’t We Be a RMB Hub? By Robin Kwong(beyongbrics, Aug. 18, 2011) China vice premier Li Keqiang’s visit to Hong Kong has stirred excitement not only in the city but also in Taiwan, where an increasing number of people are asking: why can’t Taiwan be a renminbi trading hub too.

China Starts Two-Month Security Crackdown in Western Region By Sharon LaFraniere (New York Times, Aug. 17, 2011) China announced a two-month “strike hard” security campaign in the troubled western region of Xinjiang.

Regional Issues

The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict By Robert D. Kaplan(Foreign Policy, Sept/Oct 2011) Because of the way geography illuminates and sets priorities, the physical contours of East Asia augur a naval century. It is through sea power that China will psychologically erase two centuries of foreign transgressions on its territory -- forcing every country around it to react.

The Phantom Menace By Daniel L. Byman and Charles King(New York Times, Aug. 16, 2011) Taiwan shows one way out of this conundrum; despite existing in a state of legal uncertainty, it has thrived. The key was engagement. Taiwan’s economic and strategic importance pushed the United States, China and other great powers to tiptoe around — and sometimes even embrace — its unsettled legal status.

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Regards,

Dalton LinEditor, Taiwan Security Research
E-mail: daltonlin@ntu.edu.tw, Taiwan Security Research: taiwansecurity.org