Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Dec. 25, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

TSR wishes readers a Merry Christmas!!

North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il Died

China Scrambles for Clues After Kim’s Death
(Sydney Morning Herald, Dec. 19, 2011) It seems that not even China, North Korea's only ally, can predict how North Korea will respond or whether the "Dear Leader's" son and anointed successor, Kim Jong-un, can assume firm control of his starving and nuclear-armed nation.

China Moves to Ensure Stability in North Korea By Edward Wong(New York Times, Dec. 20, 2011) China, North Korea’s foremost ally, appears to be moving quickly to try to ensure stability in a crippled and isolated nation now facing a leadership transition fraught with dangers.

Missile Tests Halt After Kim’s Death
(Taipei Times, Dec. 21, 2011) In an effort to help maintain security in the East Asia region, the military has now suspended missile tests launched from Taiwan proper and artillery tests conducted on Taiwan’s outlying islands.

China Relaxed about N. Korea Transition By Simon Rabinovitch
(Washington Post, Dec. 21, 2011) The fact that the Chinese government appears to be relatively relaxed now stems from its judgment that the father-to-son power transition need not be immediately destabilizing.

China Praises Kim Jong Il Despite Sometimes Strained Ties By Barbara Demick (LA Times, Dec. 24, 2011) Since Kim's death was announced, the Chinese government has practically outdone the North Korean propaganda machine in its adulation. Scholars say that approach is a reflection of the fear that North Korea could collapse and needs to be propped up.

Kim Jong-un Cleared As Top Military Commander
(New York Times, Dec. 25, 2011) The state-run media’s call for Kim Jong-un to lead the military suggests that, at least for now, he is on pace to take full control of the country.

Will North Korea Become China’s Newest Province? By Victor Cha(New York Times, Dec. 20, 2011) For Xi Jinping, expected to become China’s president over the next year, the first major foreign policy decision will be whether to shed North Korea or effectively adopt it as a province.

Kim Jong-un, Reformer? The Promise and Peril of North Korea’s Succession Crisis By Gilbert Rozman (The New Republic, Dec. 20, 2011) What’s important to realize is that a drawn-out succession process favors divisive forces throughout the region. Not only will it favor hardliners in North Korea—it will also give credence to the leaders in China who are distrustful of the United States, as well as the policymakers in South Korea and Japan who are pushing to adopt a tougher posture against Pyongyang.

How Kim Death Risks China Crisis By Minxin Pei(The Diplomat, Dec. 21, 2011) Given the huge stakes involved in the future of the Korean Peninsula, the volatility and unpredictability produced by Kim’s death has greatly increased the risks of great power conflict.

America's Pacific Century

The American Pivot to Asia By Kenneth Lieberthal(Foreign Policy, Dec. 21, 2011) The American press portrayed the Obama trip as affirming American leadership of Asia, challenging and trumping China at every turn. But the reality is more complex, both as to what the president sought to do and as to the likely results.

China Assesses President Obama’s November 2011 Asia-Pacific Trip By Michael S. Chase (China Brief 11(23), Jamestown Foundation, Dec. 20, 2011) China’s reaction appeared to reflect not only some uncertainty about the motives underlying the most recent U.S. initiatives, but also deeper concern about the broader implications of the unfolding U.S. strategic “pivot” to Asia.

Cross-Strait Issues

FSC Approves 2 Chinese Bank Branches
(CNA, Dec. 23, 2011) The plans submitted by the Bank of China and the Bank of Communications to set up branches in Taipei have been approved, the Financial Supervisory Commission announced.

Arms Sales

Sale of Additional PAC-3 Units to Taiwan Proceeds
(Taipei Times, Dec. 20, 2011) Raytheon has signed a US$685.7 million Foreign Military Sales contract to provide two additional new fire units of the combat-proven Patriot Air and Missile Defense System for Taiwan, the company announced.

Taiwan Still a Top Buyer of US Arms
(Taipei Times, Dec. 22, 2011) A new report from the US Congressional Research Service shows that despite a sale of F-16C/D aircraft being turned down this year, Taiwan remains one of the US’ four major arms buyers.

Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Electoin

Ma to Open Doors Wider to Chinese Students
(China Post, Dec. 21, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou agreed to open the doors wider to students from China as suggested by local university presidents. He also promised action to inject more funding to universities and colleges providing technology and vocational training education.

Candidates Outline Campaign Policies
(China Post, Dec. 24, 2011) The three presidential candidates in the election set for next month outlined their major policies and stances in the first of three televised campaign platform presentations, with the focus on national positions, relations across the Taiwan Strait, foreign affairs and economic development.

Ma Clashes with Tsai on National Identity, Democracy
(China Post, Dec. 25, 2011) Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen clashed again on a variety of issues, with Ma accusing Tsai of non-compliance with the Constitution, while Tsai countered by lamenting the diminishment of Taiwan democracy under Ma's administration.

How the Election May Affect Taiwan-U.S. Relations By Cal Clark(Ballots & Bullets, Dec. 19, 2011) If and how the presidential election will affect U.S.-Taiwan relations depend upon three distinct factors: 1) the policies of the winning candidate; 2) U.S. views about Taiwan; and 3) China’s reaction in cross-Strait relations which might create tensions between Washington and Taipei.

US Prefers Ma but Will Work with Tsai By Bonnie S. Glaser(Ballots & Bullets, Dec. 23, 2011) Washington may see advantages in a Ma Ying-jeou victory, but if Tsai is elected, the U.S. will look forward, and seek to work with her to develop a positive relationship and sustain robust ties.

Taiwan's Foreign Relations and Domestic Issues

Taiwan Put on U.S. Visa Waiver Program List of Candidates
(CNA, Dec. 22, 2011) Taiwan has been put on the United States' Visa Waiver Program (VWP) candidate list, the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) announced.

Taiwan’s Participation in UNFCCC By Hsiao I-chun and Jerry Hsiao(Taipei Times, Dec. 19, 2011) Taiwan’s desired method of admission into the UNFCCC — using a similar model to its participation in the WHA — deals primarily with the method of admission, but not the substance of the participation.

Taiwan to Become ‘Aged’ Society in 6 Years: Minister
(CNA, Dec. 24, 2011) Taiwan will likely become an “aged” society by 2017, when senior citizens are expected to constitute 14 percent of the country's population.

Wukan Protest and China's Domestic Issues

Chinese Villagers Win Rare Compromise
(Wall Street Journal, Dec. 21, 2011) Southern Chinese authorities have given in to key demands of protesting villagers after a nearly two-week standoff with police, agreeing in a rare compromise to release detainees and return some confiscated land to farmers.

Party Paper Praises Wukan Deal
(China Real Time Report, Dec. 22, 2011) China’s local communities and online denizens are watching closely to see whether authorities keep their unusual promises to protest leaders in the formerly restive southern village of Wukan. So far, the official response has been unusually supportive.

Canny Villagers Grasp Keys to Loosen China’s Muzzle By Edward Wong (New York Times, Dec. 23, 2011) Revolt or not, the protest over land sales in Wukan was sustained in its final and most perilous phase by the villagers’ canny interactions with journalists from foreign and Hong Kong news organizations.

Wukan Protest: Will Rights Awareness Spread? By Stanley Lubman(China Real Time Report, Dec. 23, 2011) The events of Wukan raise the question of what Beijing can do to address a nationwide problem in a comprehensive fashion that could strengthen rights consciousness and the rule of law, rather than treat each protest as an isolated incident.

Wukan Uprising Highlights Dilemmas of Preserving Stability By Peter Mattis (China Brief 11(23), Jamestown Foundation, Dec. 20, 2011) The continuing standoff and decisions on how to resolve the situation facing authorities highlight some of the major concerns and contradictions in how Beijing preserves stability.

Guangdong Protests Could Alter China’s Leadership Shuffle By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Dec. 23, 2011) An uprising over land seizures in a fishing hamlet in southern Guangdong province has been defused, but Chinese analysts and others are watching to see whether the unrest could have a wider effect, perhaps on the future of a provincial chief who had been seen as a rising star in the Communist Party.

The Last Year of Hu’s Leadership: Hu’s to Blame? By Chen Li and Eva Cary (China Brief 11(23), Jamestown Foundation, Dec. 20, 2011) As the Hu Jintao era enters its final year, Chinese elites have started to review his administration, revealing many observers share a profound sense of disappointment.

Will China Break? By Paul Krugman(New York Times, Dec. 19, 2011) China is emerging as another danger spot in a world economy that really, really doesn’t need this right now.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

Philippines Seeks 12 F-16 Fighter Jets, Coast Guard Ship from US amid Territorial Row (AP, Dec. 21, 2011) The Philippines will seek a squadron of F-16 fighter jets and a third coast guard ship from longtime ally Washington amid simmering territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

Chinese, Japanese PM Hold Talks on Ties, Peninsula Situation
(Xinhua, Dec. 25, 2011) Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and visiting Japanese Prime Minster Yoshihiko Noda held talks on China-Japan ties and Korean peninsula situation at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Japan, China Deepen Financial Ties By Takashi Nakamichi and Lingling Wei (Wall Street Journal, Dec. 25, 2011) The Chinese and Japanese governments unveiled a broad, innovative package of financial agreements designed to tighten ties between the world's second and third largest economies, moves that could elevate the yuan's status as an international currency.