Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jan. 1, 2012)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

TSR wishes readers a Happy New Year!

North Korea's Leadership Succession

Noda Reaches Out to China on N. Korea
(AP, Dec. 26, 2011) Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda reached out for China's help on dealing with North Korea and promoting stability in the closed country after the death of longtime leader Kim Jong Il.

Kim Jong Il’s Son Strengthens Power with Senior Political Post
(AP, Dec. 27, 2011) North Korea identified Kim Jong Il's son as head of a top ruling party body, a post that gives him authority over political matters in addition to the military control attributed to him in recent days.

North Korea Declares Kim Jong-un Supreme Leader
(New York Times, Dec. 30, 2011) North Korea declared the young heir Kim Jong-un supreme head of the country.

North Korea Condemns South Korea, Vows No Policy Changes By Chico Harlan (Washington Post, Dec. 30, 2011) North Korea indicated that it will navigate this latest transition by relying on a familiar strategy, using outside enemies to keep its own people united.

America's Pacific Century

An Upbeat View of America’s ‘Bad’ Year By Ian Bremmer and David F. Gordon (New York Times, Dec. 28, 2011) 2011 was not the year when the United States fell off the wagon. Instead, a look back at the past 12 months suggests that U.S. power is more resilient than the narrative of inevitable decline portrays.

Nobody Keen to Answer the Big Taiwan Question By Hamish McDonald (Sydney Morning Herald, Dec. 31, 2011) Two weeks from today, the people of Taiwan vote in a presidential election. Depending on the result, a dragon that seemed to be sleeping may be stirred, and an old dilemma revived for Canberra.

Sino-U.S. Engagement

Ex-AIT Director Taking Fire in HK
(Taipei Times, Dec. 27, 2011) Former AIT director Stephen Young has run into trouble with Chinese authorities in Hong Kong for reportedly ignoring “solemn warnings” to keep quiet about democracy in the territory.

U.S. Declines to Say China Manipulating Its Currency
(AP, Dec. 28, 2011) The Obama administration declined to label China a currency manipulator after seeing recent increases in the value of the renminbi compared with the dollar.

China's GPS System and Space Report; Military Balance

China GPS System Begins Service
(AP, Dec. 27, 2011) A Chinese rival to the U.S. global positioning system network has started providing services in China and the surrounding area.

Beijing Launches Its Own GPS Rival By Jeremy Page(Wall Street Journal, Dec. 28, 2011) China has begun operating a homegrown satellite navigation service that defense experts said could help the Chinese military to identify, track and strike U.S. ships in the region in the event of armed conflict.

Space Report Touts Tech, Tiptoes around Military Uses By Matt Durnin (China Real Time Report, Dec. 30, 2011) If China’s space plans come to fruition—and its track record over the last decade puts the odds in its favor—it will possess one of the world’s most robust and diverse space systems, many with military applications.

Air Force Upgrading ‘Skyguard’ System
(Taipei Times, Dec. 28, 2011) Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against Chinese aircraft and missile attacks is expected to receive a shot in the arm following the scheduled completion next year of an upgrade program for its “Skyguard” short-range air defense system.

Compulsory Military Service Cut Further
(Taipei Times, Dec. 31, 2011) The Ministry of National Defense announced it would implement an all-volunteer military system in 2013.

Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Electoin

Predictions Diverge on Tsai’s Chances
(Taipei Times, Dec. 27, 2011) An electronic exchange at National Chengchi University’s Center for Prediction Markets showed that DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen led President Ma Ying-jeou by 7.4 percentage point, while a survey by Taiwan Thinktank showed Tsai trailed by 0.4 percentage point.

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(TVBS, Dec. 27, 2011) Were respondents to vote tomorrow, 44% would vote for KMT’s Ma-Wu ticket, 38% for DPP’s Tsai-Su ticket, and 6% for PFP’s Soong-Lin ticket. Meanwhile, 12% of the respondents remained undecided.

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(China Times, Dec. 27, 2011) Were respondents to vote tomorrow, 41.6% would vote for KMT’s Ma-Wu ticket, 36.8% for DPP’s Tsai-Su ticket, and 6.8% for PFP’s Soong-Lin ticket. Meanwhile, 14.8% of the respondents declined to answer.

Ma Says Better China Ties Best Way to Ease Taiwan Dependence
(Bloomberg, Dec. 28, 2011) Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou said his rapprochement with China will encourage other nations to strengthen trade with the island and make it less dependent on the mainland, rebutting opposition criticism that he’s left the economy more vulnerable.

China Says Taiwan’s Opposition a Threat to Peace
(Reuters, Dec. 28, 2011) China warned Taiwan’s pro-independence DPP that its stance on relations with Beijing could threaten a hard-won state of peaceful coexistence, as the island’s closed watched elections draw near.

Bilateral Relations to Advance, Not Regress: Tsai
(China Post, Dec. 30, 2011) On the campaign trail in Kinmen County, DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen vowed that cross-strait relations will not stagnate, not regress, but only advance at the spurs of her administration's “Taiwan Consensus.”

Charges of US Bias As Taiwan Election Nears
(AP, Jan. 1, 2012) Washington has been lavishing attention on Taiwan, stepping up official visits and saying it will likely allow visa-free travel to the U.S. The moves are raising suspicions that America is trying to influence a tight presidential election here in January.

Candidates Cross Swords
(Taipei Times, Dec. 31, 2011) The three presidential candidates crossed swords on issues ranging from cross-strait policy, the economy and administrative competency in the second of three televised platform presentation forums.

Presidential Race Still Close As Election Day Nears By Jonathan Standing (Reuters, Dec. 31, 2011) The Jan. 14 presidential election is about two weeks away, but neither of the two main candidates yet holds a clear advantage.

President Facing an Uphill Battle By Tung Chen-yuan(Taipei Times, Dec. 31, 2011) All in all, this election will be a contest between DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s social class issues and Ma’s cross-strait issues.

Young Voters a Key Electorate in Close Election
(CNA, Dec. 31, 2011) Young Taiwanese are playing a greater role in the presidential campaign for the Jan. 14 election than in previous polls, while both the main political parties try to win the youth vote.

Taiwan's Foreign Relations

US Hopes TIFA Talks Can Resume After Elections
(China Post, Dec. 28, 2011) The United States government hopes Taiwanese counterparts can take “concrete steps” to solve the U.S. beef dispute following the January elections before the currently suspended TIFA talks can resume, a MOFA official said.

Taiwan, Israel to Establish Free Trade Deal Task Force
(CNA, Dec. 30, 2011) Taiwan and Israel have agreed to set up a task force to study the possibility of a bilateral free trade agreement before 2013, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

Wukan Protest, China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

A Village in Revolt Could Be a Harbinger for China By Michael Wines(New York Times, Dec. 26, 2011) Wukan’s uprising highlighted systemic defects in China’s local governments, and only a housecleaning — not an isolated slap on the wrist — will address them. The trouble is that almost nobody benefits from a housecleaning.

Will Wukan Be the New Normal? By Russell Leigh Moses(China Real Time Report, Dec. 28, 2011) It is tempting but wrong to think that the peaceful end to the standoff in Wukan between local officials and villagers heralds an important shift in the way the Communist Party handles unrest.

A Chinese Official Tests a New Political Approach By Sharon LaFraniere (New York Times, Dec. 31, 2011) Given a choice of storming the village with armed police officers or conceding that the villagers’ complaints had merit, Mr. Wang Yang chose the latter.

Dealing with China’s Troubles
(Editorial, New York Times, Dec. 27, 2011) China’s economy seems to be in trouble, which could be a very big problem for the world unless China’s leaders and trading partners ensure that economic strains in the world’s largest exporting nation do not lead to trade confrontations around the globe.

China’s Shaky Economic Foundation By Joshua Muldavin(New York Times, Dec. 31, 2011) Beijing’s success in quelling daily unrest around the country, mainly through the use of local officials as scapegoats, fails to address the fundamental problem: a development path built on an eroding foundation of unjust land grabs, environmental destruction, social polarization and the resulting vulnerability of the country’s poorest and most marginal people.

China to Balance ‘Quick’ Growth with Inflation in 2012, Hu Says
(Bloomberg, Dec. 31, 2011) China will balance “relatively quick” economic growth with inflation in 2012, amid rising uncertainty about the world economic recovery, President Hu Jintao said in a speech.

Economist React: China-Japan Currency Pact By Bob Davis(China Real Time Report, Dec. 27, 2011) What does a more muscular yuan mean for the global economy? Here are views of three prominent economists.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

China Welcomes Japan-India Ties
(China Daily, Dec. 29, 2011) China welcomes mutual visits between India and Japan and wants to “actively develop” relations with both countries, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said as Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda continued his state visit to India.