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The Egyptian Election and the Arab Spring
The
Egyptian presidential election was held last week. No candidate
received 50 percent of the vote, so a runoff will be held between the
two leading candidates, Mohammed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq. Morsi
represented the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and
received 25.3 percent of the vote, while Shafiq, a former Egyptian air
force commander and the last prime minister to serve in Hosni Mubarak's
administration, received 24.9 percent. There were, of course, charges of
irregularities, but in general the results made sense. The Islamist
faction had done extremely well in the parliamentary election, and fear
of an Islamist president caused the substantial Coptic community, among
others, to support the candidate of the old regime, which had provided
them at least some security.
Morsi and Shafiq effectively tied in the first round, and either can win the next round. Morsi's strength is that he has the support of both the Islamist elements and those who fear a Shafiq presidency and possible return to the old regime. Shafiq's strength is that he speaks for those who fear an Islamist regime. The question is who will win the non-Islamist secularists' support. They oppose both factions, but they are now going to have to live with a president from one of them. If their secularism is stronger than their hatred of the former regime, they will go with Shafiq. If not, they will go with Morsi. And, of course, it is unclear whether the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the military committee that has ruled Egypt since the fall of Mubarak, will cede any real power to either candidate, especially since the constitution hasn't even been drafted. Read More »
Morsi and Shafiq effectively tied in the first round, and either can win the next round. Morsi's strength is that he has the support of both the Islamist elements and those who fear a Shafiq presidency and possible return to the old regime. Shafiq's strength is that he speaks for those who fear an Islamist regime. The question is who will win the non-Islamist secularists' support. They oppose both factions, but they are now going to have to live with a president from one of them. If their secularism is stronger than their hatred of the former regime, they will go with Shafiq. If not, they will go with Morsi. And, of course, it is unclear whether the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the military committee that has ruled Egypt since the fall of Mubarak, will cede any real power to either candidate, especially since the constitution hasn't even been drafted. Read More »
