Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Wednesday 22 May 2013

Stratfor
Editor's Note: Traditionally you have received Stratfor's Geopolitical and Security Weekly reports, but we'd like to do a better job of showing you everything else we have to offer. You'll continue to receive two free reports each week. They may not always be the Geopolitical or Security Weeklies, but they will always be insightful. (Become a full subscriber to receive the weeklies and much more.)
Free Report
Syria: Outside Patronage and a New Offensive for the Regime

The battle for the Syrian city of Al-Qusayr, which came under regime artillery fire May 19, is actually part of a larger battle for the highly coveted Homs governorate. As we noted in 2012, the battle has wide-reaching ramifications for the Syrian rebels since Al-Qusayr sits along a major transit point for rebel supplies and reinforcements coming in from Lebanon. But it is equally important to loyalist forces. If the Syrian regime loses control of the Orontes River Valley and its major road junctions, Damascus will be largely cut off from Aleppo and the Alawite-dominated coast, which would limit the regime's access to supply lines from port cities.

The regime's renewed offensive against Al-Qusayr was made possible by support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. However, geography will determine which side holds the advantage. In northern and eastern Syria, the regime remains on the defensive; in the core, the advantage clearly belongs to the loyalists. With the country squarely divided, the Syrian civil war will continue to be a protracted conflict -- even as the regime prevails in Al-Qusayr. Read More »