'Uncertainty' in Contemporary DSGE Modelling: Not Even Wrong
Article of the Fortnight from Fixing the Economists
by Philip Pilkington, Fixing the Economists
Confusion of thought and feeling leads to confusion of speech.
- John Maynard Keynes
Readers will note that I very rarely discuss DSGE modelling on here. Frankly, I'm not enormously interested. The fad is one in which economists - or, we should rather say: mathematicians with some loose economic training - have come to mistake analogy for literal explanation.
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Market Commentary: Markets Close Higher As A Correction To Yesterday's Decline
Closing Market Commentary For 07-18-2014
Today was a correction day, smoothing out the relatively steep fall of yesterday's session. The Malaysian airliner shoot-down has become less important along with the Israeli invasion of Gaza.
By 4 pm investors were still watching World events and remain worried while some BTFDers jumped in at the minute to snatch up 'bargains'. Volume was low to moderate and signals caution.
What We Read Today 18 July 2014
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
- Fallen Bodies, Jet Parts and a Child's Pink Book (Sabrina Travernise, The New York Times) Bodies, debris and plane parts fell over a 4-6 square mile area.
June 2014 Sea Container Counts Improve
Written by Steven Hansen
Export and Import container counts have had a stronger month after the previous two soft months. However, the 3 month rolling average for both exports and imports decelerated.
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Market Commentary: Markets Move Higher On Sometimes Moderate Green Volume
Midday Market Commentary For 07-18-2014
The big-time news today was the US UN Ambassador and the US President speaking on the Malaysian flight that was shot down yesterday over Eastern Ukraine. The averages climbed fractionally, steadily on moderate volume as the US President spoke and continued to melt up after his news conference.
By 12:30, the averages were still continuing to move upwards, albeit slowly, as investors were satisfied with the US Governments stance. How long this bullishness will last is not known as the shoot-down is not in itself World financially important.
LLRV Testing Contributed to Apollo 11 Success
NASA marks the 45th anniversary of the first moon landing this month. The world watched in awe as astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin set their lunar module Eagle down in the Sea of Tranquility on July 20 1969.
11 July 2014: ECRI's WLI Growth Declines
ECRI's WLI Growth Index continues to show growth - remaining in positive territory and at a level again unchanged from the previous week. A positive number predicts economic expansion to come within the next six months. ECRI released their coincident index which declined, and their lagging index which improved.
Preliminary July 2014 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Posts Four Month Low
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July came in at 81.3, a decline from the June final of 82.5 and the lowest reading since March. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 83.0.
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June 2014 Leading Economic Index Continues to Predict Economy May Pick Up Steam In the 2H2014
Written by Steven Hansen
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved marginally in June to 102.2 (2004 = 100, previous month reading = 101.7). The index growth has been noisy but remains in a growth trend.
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Market Commentary: Markets Open Up, Volume Low And Trade Sideways
Opening Market Commentary For 07-18-2014
Premarkets were up +0.20% and rose on not-so-good morning financial's where the U of Mich came in at 81.3 down from 82.5 and the US leading Indicators dropped to 0.3% from 0.5%. Markets opened up at +0.30% with a sideways trend.
By 10:30 the averages were sea-sawing sideways with a very slight upwards trend which is not saying much because the markets closed down yesterday and need to consolidate.
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Stratfor: Reflections on an Unforgiving Day (Gaza and Malaysian Airlines Flight 17)
We ate breakfast to the news that an airliner had crashed in Ukraine. We had lunch to the news that Israel had invaded Gaza. An airliner crashing is perhaps more impactful than an invasion. We have all wondered, when we hear of a crash, or even in quiet moments on board an aircraft ourselves, what living our final moments in a plane plunging to earth, knowing that we will die, would be like. An invasion is harder for some of us to empathize with. Most of us have never invaded a country nor been in a country while it was invaded. But it shares this much with a plane crash: Your life is in danger, and your fate is out of your hands.
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Be A Trading Machine
Online Trading Academy Article of the Week
by Sam Evans, Online Trading Academy
Hello everybody and welcome to another week's edition of Lessons from The Pros. I hope you're well and have not been too troubled by the lack of volatility currently residing in the worldwide currency markets? The quiet nature of the FX market has definitely been causing a few issues for some traders looking for bigger moves that aren't really happening. However I would advise you to be patient because when things do pick up, you will probably be overwhelmed by the amount of opportunity out there.
Worst June Retail Sales Performance In History, But So What
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner
Actual, not seasonally adjusted data from the Commerce Department showed a 5.6% drop in June retail sales versus May. It was the worst June performance in the 22 year history of this data. However, the year to year growth rate remained at +4.3% which was in line with the trend of the past year. This data is not adjusted for inflation.
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Advanced Look at Next Week's Forecast as of 17 July 2014
Focusing on the Australian El Nino Update and NOAA Seasonal Outlook Updates.
Written by Sig Silber
This is an advanced look at the report that I normally issue on Mondays.
However Australia has issued an interesting update on El Nino and NOAA has issued their updated seasonal outlook so I thought an advanced look at those two items of information was in order.
Is Big Tobacco Abandoning Smokes for E-Cigarettes?
by Becky Freeman, The Conversation
E-cigarettes. For a product barely anyone had heard of five years ago, they now seem to be on everyone's lips. While much has been written about the safety of these products and their potential to either support or sabotage efforts to reduce smoking rates, it's timely to consider why the global tobacco industry has taken such a keen interest in buying e-cigarette companies.
Investing.com Technical Summary 17 July 2014
Investing.com Technical Analysis (as of Thu, 17 July 2014 05:00pm EDT)
by Investing.com Staff, Investing.com
Below, technical overviews and analysis for key stock indices, commodities and currency pairs,
based on market activity at the close of the 17 July 2014 U.S. session. This information is a comprehensive summary derived from simple and exponential moving averages along with key technical indicators shown for specific time intervals.
Investor Bulletin: Ten Things You Should Know About Investing
from the Securities and Exchange Commission
Whether you're a first-time investor or have been investing for many years, there is some basic information you should know about investing. Below is a list of ten investing-related pieces of information that may help you make sound financial decisions and avoid fraud.
CBO's Long-Term Budget Projections Show a Substantial Imbalance in the Federal Budget
from the Congressional Budget Office
On Tuesday CBO released its latest report on the long-term budget outlook. (To get a quick overview of the report, check out The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 26 Slides.) In that report, we noted that although the gap between federal spending and revenues has narrowed recently, CBO's long-term projections show a substantial imbalance in the federal budget, with revenues falling well short of spending if current laws stayed generally the same.
Fed's Balance Sheet 16 July 2014 Up Again
Total Fed Balance Sheet
Fed's Balance Sheet week ending balance sheet was $4.355 trillion - up from the record $4.340 last week. The complete balance sheet data and graphical breakdown of the cumulative and weekly changes follows the "read more".
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Self-Described Bankers, Dishonest Brokers, and Microcap Company Executive in Pump-And-Dump Scheme
from the Securities and Exchange Commission
The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged individuals who pocketed millions of dollars running an elaborate pump-and-dump scheme involving shares of a medical education company in Pennsylvania and two other microcap stocks.
Infographic of the Day: The US Energy Department's Technology in Space
Learn about the space missions, past and present, where technology from the Energy Department and its National Labs has made discovery possible.
