How Might a China Slowdown Affect the World?
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets
Two years ago it was hard to find analysts who expected average GDP growth over the rest of this decade to be less than 8%. The current consensus seems to have dropped to between 6% and 7% on average.
Read more >>
Market Commentary: Averages Close Down On Moderate Volume
Closing Market Commentary For 12-04-2014
Markets made a sudden spike upward at 12:30 pushing the DOW and SP500 to new historic highs on news of reports that the European Central Bank could be preparing a new stimulus package for its meeting next month.
By 4 pm the markets closed in the red with the large caps flat and $RUT down over -0.5%. Volume today was moderate, but the swings were a traders delight and we will probably see more of this action in the coming sessions.
What We Read Today 04 December 2014
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
- U.S. healthcare spending growth hit 53-year low in 2013, report shows (Melanie Evans, Modern Healthcare) Hat tip to Dean Baker. The U.S. spent $2.9 trillion on healthcare last year, an increase of 3.6% from the prior year. This was the weakest growth since 1960. The new number was the result of federal actuaries and economists revising recent estimates. U.S. health spending growth fell below 4% in 2009 with the recession that stripped private health insurance from millions of individuals. But the newly revised numbers show an acceleration in 2012 to 4.1% before a slump last year.
Market Commentary: Markets Trending Up From A Morning 'Dip'
Midday Market Commentary For 12-04-2014
By noon the markets had recovered somewhat from a sudden dip of -0.5% to -0.3% and a lot of green volume. The midday trend 'appears' to be trending upwards, but could become sideways by this afternoon.
Investors are taking their time in deciding what they want to do towards the end of the year. Santa Claus Rally, tax questions, profit taking and a host of other decision making themes are starting to become important.
Concordia captain appears to abandon sinking ship, eyewitness footage
Amateur video footage appears to show the captain of the Costa Concordia, Francesco Schettino, standing next to a lifeboat before leaving the Costa Concordia on the night it struck rocks off the Tuscan island of Giglio and capsised, killing 32 people.
Market Commentary: Markets Open Down Consolidating From Yesterday's New Historic Highs
Opening Market Commentary For 12-04-2014
Back from financial meetings with Mickey and Minnie and found the premarket up 0.1% this morning only to have it fall to -0.3% after a poor reports on the Continuing and Initial Claims. Markets opened down -0.2% with the small caps in the green but flat on moderate volume.
By 10 am the DOW was down almost 0.3% and trending down while the SP500 was in the red at -0.17% and sea-sawing sideways. The small caps were fractionally trending upwards.
29 November 2014 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Worsens Slightly But Remain Near Historic Lows
Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 290,000 to 300,000 (consensus 295,000) vs the 297,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving averagemoved from 294,250 (reported last week as 294,000) to 299,000. Rolling averages under 300,000 are excellent.
Stratfor: When the Unthinkable Becomes Possible
from STRATFOR
Europe's economic crisis is slowly but steadily eroding the political systems of many countries on the Continent. New actors are emerging and threatening the supremacy of the traditional players. Alliances and events that seemed impossible only a few years ago are now being openly discussed across Europe. On Dec. 3, for example, Sweden announced it would hold early elections, partially because of political moves from the far right. In Spain, the ruling center-right party is openly discussing the possibility of entering an alliance with its traditional center-left rivals to prevent a protest party from taking over. Key members of the European Union, including Sweden, Spain, the United Kingdom and possibly Greece, will hold elections in 2015. In most cases, these countries will see outcomes nobody would have thought possible in 2008.
Read more >>
November 2014 Job Cuts Down 21% from Same Month One Year Ago
PLANNED CUTS TOTAL 35,940 IN NOVEMBER
from Challenger Gray and Christmas
Downsizing activity by U.S.-based employers declined by 30 percent in November, with 35,940 planned job cuts announced during the penultimate month of 2014.
Two Sides of Prosecutorial Discretion
Prosecutorial Discretion: Plenty for Me; But None for Thee
by Joseph M. Firestone, New Economic Perspectives
Republican "strategists," Party functionaries, and Congresspeople, are saying, with considerable emotion and rage, that the President's Executive Order allowing undocumented immigrants goes beyond presidential authority under the Constitution in the areas of law enforcement and prosecutorial discretion, claiming that he must enforce the law without bias, in a manner consistent with his oath to uphold the Constitution.
The Surprising Truth About Solar Stocks
Investing Daily Article of the Week
by Chad Fraser, Investing Daily
Reports of solar power's death are greatly exaggerated.
That's the thrust of two recent reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Taken together, they say solar could be the world's top electricity source by 2050, beating out wind, hydro, nuclear-even fossil fuels.
U.S. Will be a Winner in an Oil Price War
Output Forecasts to 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Happy, Too
Written by Andrew Butter
According to Reuters and CNN...and others, 'OPEC' has declared war on shale-oil drillers in America.
- Inside OPEC room, Naimi declares price war on U.S. shale oil
- OPEC's message to US shale: Drop dead
Read more >>
Leak at Federal Reserve Revealed Confidential Bond-Buying Details
Special Report From ProPublica
by Jake Bernstein, ProPublica.org
Update, Dec. 1, 5:55 p.m.: The Federal Reserve Board declined to respond to detailed questions about this article. The Inspector General also declined to comment. Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke referred all questions to the Federal Reserve. Medley Global Advisors did not respond to requests for comment.
Some of What You Missed Last Week
Econintersect: We offer a daily review of some of the important and/or interesting things we read each day. Our "What We Read Today" column has some material available to the general public at no charge and some more detailed discussion 'behind the wall' as premium content. We do this to offer our readers a chance to get a little extra in return for supporting our efforts. Following the Read more >> jump is the entire "What We Read Today" column from last week Thursday. What you see is the public view content followed by what was 'behind the wall'.
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Did Market Failures Cause the 2007-08 Financial Crisis?
from the Richmond Fed
While economists have made substantial progress exploring this question, the answer remains unclear. The answer is important because financial regulation that does not address a specific market failure risks causing new inefficiencies and unintended consequences in the financial system and broader economy. To demonstrate how economic theory can be used to identify market failures and guide policy, this Economic Brief discusses a common market failure called a "pecuniary externality" and demonstrates the pitfalls of applying regulations in situations where the precise sources of market failures are not well-understood.
December 2014 Beige Book: Economy is Growing but ....
Econintersect: The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) said "
that national economic activity continued to expand in October and November". The previous report said that the economy was growing "
at a pace similar to that noted in the previous Beige Book".
We have to guess if it is better than the previous period.
Please see the end of this post for words the Federal Reserve uses when the economy is entering a recession.
Assisted Living Provider Accused of Listing Fake Occupants in Order to Meet the Requirements of a Lease to Operate the Facilities
from the Securities and Exchange Commission
The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced fraud charges against two former top executives at a Wisconsin-based assisted living provider accused of listing fake occupants at some senior residences in order to meet the requirements of a lease to operate the facilities.
Infographic of the Day: Supercomputers and Drug Development
Drug companies often devote 10 to 15 years and more than a billion dollars to bring a new drug to market. But researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are using supercomputers to helpstreamline the drug development process.
The Open Carry Cargo Cult
by Surly1, Doomstead Diner
Thus was the morning peace broken, and "the ceremony of innocence drowned."
It was a quiet autumn Sunday morning in southeastern Virginia. After an initial cup of coffee, Contrary realized that she was out of cigarettes (a filthy habit, yes, but not the point of this soon-to-be overheated screed.) She drove several blocks to a convenience store adjacent to the campus of the large urban university with which we share a neighborhood.
Five Ways to Keep Your Home Warm this Winter
by Roland Ennos, The Conversation
If you live in a poorly insulated home, and many of us do, you could spend thousands this winter on energy bills. But our ancestors had many ways to keep snug at little or no cost. Now, thanks to modern infrared cameras and advances in environmental physics, we can understand how these methods work and measure how effective they are.
The Smartphone Market 2014
from Felix Richter, Statista.com
by Niall McCarthy
Android devices are still the driving force across the global smartphone market, according to the International Data Corporation.
