Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

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The Calm Before the Storm Why Volatility Signals Stability, and Vice Versa By Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Gregory F. Treverton Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country’s future trajectory is not lengthy past stability but recent moderate volatility.

Thinkers and Tinkerers The Innovators Behind the Information Age By James Surowiecki In recent decades, most innovation has come from a single sector (information technology) and a single place (Silicon Valley). Walter Isaacson’s The Innovators and Peter Thiel’s Zero to One shed light on how that happened and what drives innovation more...

Ready for War With ISIS? Foreign Affairs' Brain Trust Weighs In We poll experts on whether they think the United States should significantly step up its military campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

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Packing for India A Life of Action in Global Finance and Diplomacy David Mulford “A distinguished ambassador to India, an undersecretary of the U.S. Treasury, and an eminent banker in private, Mulford has put forward the trajectory of a fascinating life, much of it given to public service.”—Henry Kissinger, former National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Click here for more information

Breaking the Ice Why the United States Needs Nuclear-Powered Icebreakers By Milosz Reterski In defending its vital interests in the Arctic, the United States lacks a critical tool: mighty nuclear-powered icebreakers that would solidify its economic and strategic role in the region. Russia is surging ahead in this area, and the United States must catch up.

The Torture Report's Missing Victims Did the United States Abuse Female Terrorist Suspects? By Nimmi Gowrinathan Most of the recent Senate report on the CIA’s use of torture after 9/11 is gruesomely detailed. But one thing is missing: the stories of the women we know were in U.S. custody and may well have been subject to degrading treatment as well.

Our Man in Havana The Imprisonment of Alan Gross and the U.S. Effort to Bring Him Home By R. M. Schneiderman On the campaign trail in 2008, Obama often said that he wanted a new beginning with Cuba. Yet with the president set to begin his second term, the relationship between the two countries remains largely unchanged. The single biggest reason for the status quo, according to the...

Cuba After Communism The Economic Reforms That Are Transforming the Island By Julia E. Sweig and Michael J. Bustamante Cuba has entered a new era of economic reform that defies easy comparison to post-Communist transitions elsewhere. Washington should take the initiative and establish a new diplomatic and economic modus vivendi with Havana.

A Conditional Caliphate Mahatma Gandhi’s Short-Lived Support for an Islamic State By M.J. Akbar Long before ISIS declared a caliphate in Iraq and Syria, Mahatma Gandhi gave Indian Muslims support for their Caliphate movement.

Counterterrorism Conundrum Rethinking Security Policy in Australia and Southeast Asia By Joseph Chinyong Liow The siege in Australia serves as a reminder that even the strictest and most comprehensive antiterrorism laws cannot immunize a society from risk. That lesson is all the more salient for Southeast Asian countries, which have experienced since 2000 several high-profile...

What's Inside the January/February 2015 Issue Jeff Bezos on Amazon, Marcelo Claure on Sprint, Thomas de Waal on genocide, and more.

Foreign Affairs Focus on Books: Anand Gopal on Afghanistan and Iraq By Justin Vogt and Anand Gopal Anand Gopal, former Afghanistan correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, sits down with Justin Vogt, deputy managing editor of Foreign Affairs.