CrisisWatch N°90, 1 February 2011
Historic events in the Arab world gripped the world's attention in January. In Tunisia
weeks of escalating riots and demonstrations over dire economic
conditions, corruption and government repression culminated in the
ouster of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali on 14 January. He was
replaced by an interim government which announced the country's first
free elections since independence.
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The direction of Tunisia's transition, and its
significance for the region, are not yet clear. But, assuming a
successful transition, this could mark the first genuine popular revolt
leading to a democratic government in the Arab world.
Inspired by the Tunisian uprising yet fuelled by
their own long-standing grievances, hundreds of thousands took to the
streets across Egypt
towards the end of the month, protesting against authoritarian rule and
poor living standards, and calling for President Hosni Mubarak to step
down. Over 135 people were killed and more than 2,000 injured during the
initial police response. The army was deployed at the end of the month
to curb increasing chaos and looting, but vowed not to use force against
the protesters.
The situation in Egypt was rapidly evolving as CrisisWatch
went to press on 1 February, with a major day of protests ongoing. Much
will depend on the actions of the regime and of the army over coming
days, and CrisisWatch identifies opportunities for the situation in Egypt to escalate or improve in February.
Events in Tunisia and Egypt have fuelled anti-regime protests elsewhere, including in Yemen, Jordan, Algeria and Sudan.
In the South of Sudan,
preliminary results of the landmark self-determination referendum
indicate 99 per cent of voters in favour of secession. The peaceful
conduct of the vote drew praise from international observers and
President Omar al-Bashir pledged to support an independent South.
Elsewhere in Sudan the situation
deteriorated, however, as clashes between the government and Darfur
rebel groups intensified. Localised deadly clashes in Abyei signalled
potential for further conflict as its future status remains unresolved.
Anti-government protests in Khartoum and elsewhere at the end of the
month, inspired by events in the Maghreb, were violently suppressed by
the government.
A deadly attack at Moscow's main airport killing at
least 35 people was blamed on a suicide bomber from the Caucasus. The
attack highlighted the gravity of the situation in Russia's North Caucasus region, as President Medvedev and some senior parliamentarians linked the continuing insurgency to socio-economic problems.
In Albania,
three people were shot dead and over a hundred injured during clashes
between police and opposition supporters during anti-government
protests.
CrisisWatch again identifies a conflict risk alert for Côte d'Ivoire as former president Laurent Gbagbo refused for a second month to hand over power to the elected president Alassane Ouattara.
January 2011 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Albania, Egypt, North Caucasus (Russia), Sudan (Northern)
Improved Situation
Sudan (South), Tunisia
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Basque Country
(Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burma/Myanmar, Burundi, Cameroon,
Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Comoros, Côte d'Ivoire,
Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Gabon, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir),
Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan,
Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia,
Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco,
Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus
(Russia), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Somalia,
Sri Lanka, Sudan (Northern), Sudan (South), Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania,
Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine,
Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe
February 2011 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alert
Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Egypt
