This is FREE intelligence for distribution. Forward this to your colleagues.
U.S. and Pakistan: Afghan Strategies
It is clear that the United States is beginning the drawdown of its
forces in Afghanistan, and it will ultimately likely turn out more rapid
than previously expected. This comes along with clear signs that U.S.
relations with Pakistan are deteriorating to a point where cooperation —
whatever level there was — is breaking down. These are two intimately
related issues. Any withdrawal from Afghanistan, particularly an
accelerated one, will leave a power vacuum in Afghanistan that the Kabul
government will not be able to fill. Afghanistan is Pakistan’s back
door, and its evolution is a matter of fundamental interest to Pakistan.
A U.S. withdrawal means an Afghanistan intertwined with and influenced
by Pakistan. Therefore, the current dynamic with Pakistan challenges any
withdrawal plan.
There may be some in the U.S. military who believe that the United
States might prevail in Afghanistan, but they are few in number. The
champion of this view, Gen. David Petraeus, has been relieved of his
command of forces in Afghanistan and promoted (or kicked upstairs) to
become director of the CIA. The conventional definition of victory has
been the creation of a strong government in Kabul controlling an army
and police force able to protect the regime and ultimately impose its
will throughout Afghanistan. With President Hamid Karzai increasingly
uncooperative with the United States, the likelihood of this outcome is
evaporating. Karzai realizes his American protection will be withdrawn
and understands that the Americans will blame him for any negative
outcomes of the withdrawal because of his inability or unwillingness to
control corruption. Read more »
Dispatch: The Financial Positioning of Ukraine and Belarus
Eurasia Analyst Eugene Chausovsky examines the economic and political
differences between the financial positions of Ukraine and Belarus. Watch the Video »
