Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday, 19 June 2011

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jun. 19, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

South China Sea Dispute Heats Up

Vietnam Navy Holds Live-Fire Drill amid Tensions with China
(AFP, Jun. 14, 2011) Vietnam put on a show of military strength in the tense South China Sea, risking the ire of Beijing in the face of a deepening maritime rift with its powerful neighbor.

Vietnam-China Spratly Islands Dispute Threatens to Escalate
(Christian Science Monitor, Jun. 16, 2011) Neither country is likely to back down easily, and if they did, neither population would see it in a favorable light. Because of this, some worry tensions could escalate to the point of exchange of fire.

Waters Roil in the South China Sea By Joel D Adriano(Asia Times, Jun. 17, 2011) If a military confrontation breaks out that the US, a key Philippine military ally, would be unlikely to side with the Philippines due to the risk of being dragged into a potential major conflict with

China

China to Boost Its Coastal Forces
(Reuters, Jun. 18, 2011) China will boost its coastal forces by adding ships and 6,000 personnel by 2020, state media said, a move likely to raise tensions with neighbors staking rival claims to waters thought to hold vast reserves of oil and gas.

Chinese Naval Maneuvers Seen As Warning to Vietnam By Barbara Demick (LA Times, Jun. 18, 2011) The Chinese navy conducted three days of exercises — including live fire drills — in the disputed waters of the South China Sea this week, escalating tensions over a potentially resource-rich area also claimed by some neighboring countries in Southeast Asia.

MND Denies Spratly Deployment Reports
(CNA, Jun. 18, 2011) The Ministry of National Defense said that it has no plans to increase its military deployment on several islands in the South China Sea, despite recent increasing tension in the area.

Taiwan Pivots in the South China Sea By Russell Hsiao(China Brief 11(11), Jamestown Foundation, Jun. 17, 2011) The Ma government’s emphasis on the “freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea is a subtle but significant departure from the administration’s low-key approach and could have important implications for cross-Strait relations.

Cross-Strait Issues

Individual Tourists Trial to Start June 28
(China Post, Jun. 13, 2011) The travel industry and local officials welcomed the earliest possible beefing-up of cross-strait tourism after the announcement by China that a trial program for individual Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan beginning on June 28.

Ma Defends China Policy to BBC
(Taipei Times, Jun. 16, 2011) Ma said China poses a great threat to

Taiwan

, but he said as the two increase ties, any unilateral attempts to alter the current situation would come at a heavy cost. Taiwan’s President ‘China Is a risk and an Opportunity’

U.S. Policy and U.S.-China Engagement

US Seeks to Fund ‘Shadow’ Internet to Defeat Censors
(New York Times, Jun. 13, 2011) The Obama administration is leading a global effort to deploy “shadow” Internet and mobile phone systems that dissidents can use to undermine repressive governments that seek to silence them.

US Lawmakers Plan TRA Enhancement
(Taipei Times, Jun. 18, 2011) US Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, chairman of the US House of Representatives’ Foreign Affairs Committee, told a special hearing on

Taiwan

that she would soon introduce new legislation “to enhance the Taiwan Relations Act.”

A Wait-And-See Game After Bilateral Talks By Zhang Wenzong(China Daily, Jun. 13, 2011) The third round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED), held in Washington last week, was seen as a great success by the Chinese government.

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

China Navy Reaches Far, Unsettling the Region By Edward Wong(New York Times, Jun. 15, 2011) Neither Beijing nor Hanoi has given any indication that they are willing to back off their claim to complete sovereignty over the land features. That is the crux of the issue.

Near-Term Missions for China’s Maiden Aircraft Carrier By Aaron Shraberg (China Brief 11(11), Jamestown Foundation, Jun. 17, 2011) The real weight of the carrier program on the balance of power in Asia is several years coming, at the earliest after the carrier completes its initial sea trials and its airmen are trained.

Reducing Military’s Budget Will Not Affect Nation’s Defense: MND
(China Post, Jun. 15, 2011) MND) yesterday confirmed that it will largely reduce its annual budget for the purchase of military hardware from next year, but said doing so will not compromise the nation's defense capabilities.

Taiwan Develops Advanced Missiles By Ralph Jennings(VOA, Jun. 16, 2011) A spokesman for the island’s National Ministry of Defense said

Taiwan

needs its own weapons to ensure timely production. But he stopped short of saying the United States, its main arms supplier, is too slow in processing the island’s requests for U.S.-made weapons.

US Lawmakers Press for Jets to Taiwan
(AFP, Jun.16, 2011) US lawmakers across party lines stepped up pressure Thursday on President Barack Obama to sell F-16 jet fighters to Taiwan, with some accusing the administration of showing deference to

China

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Taiwan’s Ma Picks Wu As Running Mate
(Bloomberg, Jun. 19, 2011)

Taiwan

President Ma Ying-jeou said he’s chosen Premier Wu Den-yihas his running mate for his re- election bid in January against the opposition’s Tsai Ing-wen.

‘No Surprise’ Approach Outlined: WikiLeaks
(Taipei Times, Jun. 19, 2011) Taiwan would not ask for a certain kind of transit just to show that the US would grant it; Taiwan would not ask for certain weapons systems just to show the US would sell them; and Taiwan would not insist on certain names just for domestic political considerations.

'Jasmine Revolution' and China's Domestic Issues

Chinese Street Vendor Dispute Expands into Violent
(New York Times, Jun. 13, 2011) The clash, in Xintang, in south coastal

China

, was the latest in a series of violent protests that have struck Chinese cities in recent days.

Insecure at the Top in China By Didi Kirsten Tatlow(New York Times, Jun. 16, 2011) Key reasons for CCP’s unpopularity are corruption, and its regular resort to violence when people ask for more oversight of government.

RMB’s Bumpy Road Ahead By Yu Yongding(China Daily, Jun. 13, 2011) With an undervalued exchange rate and strong expectation for the RMB to appreciate in the future, foreign importers of Chinese products refuse to use the RMB to settle transactions, while foreign exporters are happy to accept RMB. As a result China ends up with more foreign-exchange reserves.