This is FREE intelligence for distribution. Forward this to your colleagues.
Israeli-Arab Crisis Approaching
In September, the U.N. General Assembly will vote on whether to
recognize Palestine as an independent and sovereign state with full
rights in the United Nations. In many ways, this would appear to be a
reasonable and logical step. Whatever the Palestinians once were, they
are clearly a nation in the simplest and most important sense — namely,
they think of themselves as a nation. Nations are created by historical
circumstances, and those circumstances have given rise to a Palestinian
nation. Under the principle of the United Nations and the theory of the
right to national self-determination, which is the moral foundation of
the modern theory of nationalism, a nation has a right to a state, and
that state has a place in the family of nations. In this sense, the U.N.
vote will be unexceptional.
However, when the United Nations votes on Palestinian statehood, it will
intersect with other realities and other historical processes. First,
it is one thing to declare a Palestinian state; it is quite another
thing to create one. The Palestinians are deeply divided between two
views of what the Palestinian nation ought to be, a division not easily
overcome. Second, this vote will come at a time when two of Israel’s
neighbors are coping with their own internal issues. Syria is in chaos,
with an extended and significant resistance against the regime having
emerged. Meanwhile, Egypt is struggling with internal tension over the
fall of President Hosni Mubarak and the future of the military junta
that replaced him. Add to this the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and the
potential rise of Iranian power, and the potential recognition of a
Palestinian state — while perfectly logical in an abstract sense —
becomes an event that can force a regional crisis in the midst of
ongoing regional crises. It thus is a vote that could have significant
consequences. Read more »
