Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Oct. 30, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

President Ma Considers Peace Treaty with China in 10 Years

China Welcomes Taiwan President’s Peace Proposal
(Reuters, Oct. 26, 2011) China welcomed a proposal by Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou to consider a peace treaty with its long-time rival.

Taiwan’s Ma Talks Peace but Gets an Earful By Jens Kastner(Asia Times, Oct. 27, 2011) Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou's mention of a possible peace agreement with mainland China to end six decades of hostility across the Taiwan Strait has become a political bombshell.

Opinion Poll on Cross-Strait Peace Agreement
(UDN, Oct. 25, 2011) 23% of respondents thought Ma’s proposal of a cross-Strait peace agreement would help Ma-Wu ticket’s 2012 election prospects, 18% said it would hurt, and 35% thought it would have no impact.

Cross-Strait Issues

Cross-Strait Talks Entering Deeper Waters, NSB Says
(Taipei Times, Oct. 25, 2011) Cross-strait negotiations have entered a “deep water” period and from now on Beijing will likely change its policy from allowing Taiwan to “reap the benefits” of engagement to “exchanging interests,” National Security Bureau Director Tsai Der-sheng said.

Cross-Strait Trade Office Talks under Way: Official
(CNA, Oct. 29, 2011) Taiwan has been in talks with China on establishing reciprocal trade offices and a conclusion is in sight, Taiwan's Vice Economics Minister Huang Chung-chiu said.

Looming China Fosters Taiwan Identity in Independence Heartland By Ben Blanchard (Reuters, Oct. 25, 2011) Most Taiwanese show little enthusiasm to join up with their ethnic kin across the narrow Taiwan Strait, even if ancestrally many can trace their origins to the province of Fujian, which faces Taiwan and shares the same main dialect.

Milkfish Orders Would Not Sway Voters, Poll Finds
(Taipei Times, Oct. 29, 2011) A recent survey commissioned by the Chinese-language Business Weekly concluded that China’s “silver bullet” offensive would not change the voting behavior of residents in Syuejia District, Greater Tainan, a traditionally DPP stronghold.

US Policy and U.S.-China Engagement

U.S. to Sustain Military Power in the Pacific, Panetta Says By Elisabeth Bumiller (New York Times, Oct. 24, 2011) Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said that despite hundreds of billions of dollars in expected cuts to the Pentagon budget, the United States would remain a Pacific power even as China expanded its military presence in the region.

U.S. Pivots Eastward to Address Uneasy Allies By Elisabeth Bumiller (New York Times, Oct. 25, 2011) Mr. Panetta’s message, delivered the day before in Indonesia as well and certain to be repeated later this week when he travels to South Korea, is the new call of the Obama administration as it scrambles to project its power in Asia.

Panetta Praises China on Taiwan Arms Reaction
(AP, Oct. 24, 2011) U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is praising China for what he calls its "professional and diplomatic" response to the U.S. announcement last month of a nearly $6 billion arms sale to Taiwan.

Panetta’s Praise of PRC Raises Concern
(Taipei Times, Oct. 27, 2011) A US lawmaker is mulling a letter to the defense secretary amid concern that Washington might have consulted China before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan.

Pundits Debate If Taiwan Is Defendable By William Lowther(Taipei Times, Oct. 28, 2011) The forum entitled “Is Taiwan Defendable?” was held in a House of Representatives meeting room, and it was organized by the International Assessment and Strategy Center and attended by congressional aides.

The China Paradox and American Misperceptions By Cheng Li(Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Oct. 25, 2011) This essay aims to provide a critical assessment of the problems and challenges in the way the United States perceives China’s political and socioeconomic developments as well as its future trajectory.

PLA and Military Balance

China to Launch Unmanned Space Mission Next Month to Practice Docking with Space Station (AP, Oct. 26, 2011) China will launch an unmanned spacecraft early next month that will attempt to dock with an experimental module, the latest step in what will be a decade-long effort to place a manned permanent space station in orbit.

China Arms Buildup Hurts Prospects for Peace: US
(CNA, Oct. 28, 2011) China's growing military power lowers the likelihood of a peaceful resolution to the tensions across the Taiwan Strait, according to a draft report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

Taiwan's Foreign Relations

Taiwan, New Zealand to Assess Trade Options: Economic Affairs Chief (CNA, Oct. 26, 2011) Minister of Economic Affairs Shih Yen-shiang announced that Taiwan and New Zealand will start a feasibility assessment for a bilateral economic cooperation agreement.

Minister Eyes Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Bloc
(Taipei Times, Oct. 28, 2011) Progress made in enhancing Taiwan’s bilateral ties with Singapore and New Zealand in the form of economic cooperation agreements would help the country secure a seat in the emerging Trans-Pacific Partnership trade bloc, Minister of Foreign Affairs Timothy Yang said.

S. Korean Official Urges Greater Trade Expansion
(CNA, Oct. 27, 2011) Taiwan and South Korea should strengthen their cooperation in the fields of tourism and aviation, aside from other forms of trade expansion, a South Korean diplomat said in Taipei.

Let Taiwan In (to International Organization) By Denny Roy(Wall Street Journal, Oct. 28, 2011) Beijing cares deeply about reclaiming Taiwan, but it also cares about cultivating a positive international image. Making the lives of Taiwan's people more difficult and weakening international organizations by excluding Taiwan does not strengthen Beijing's case for sovereignty over Taiwan, but it does hurt China's reputation.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

What’s Behind the Communist Party’s Focus on Cultural Reform By Russell Leigh Moses (China Real Time Report, Oct. 24, 2011) Delegates to the plenum may be pretty certain about Chinese culture. But the current Party leadership is still struggling to shape a unifying strategy for economic and political restructuring to hand over to the next leadership. The Party plenum showed that there’s no faking that.

Jockeying for Position Intensifies among Candidates for the Politburo Standing Committee By Willy Lam (China Brief 11(20), Jamestown Foundation, Oct. 28, 2011) In the run-up to the Central Committee conclave, up-and-coming members of the party’s two dominant if fractious cliques—the Communist Youth League faction under President Hu Jintao and the Gang of Princelings—have been actively trying to enhance their chances for promotion next year.

Dragon Tail Risk: The Cost of a China Crash By Emily Kaiser(Reuters, Oct. 24, 2011) Because of their close trade links, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong would be among the first to feel the pain should China's growth weaken dramatically.

China Is Asked for Investment in Euro Rescue By Liz Alderman and David Barboza (New York Times, Oct. 29, 2011) A day after European leaders unveiled their latest plan to save the euro, top officials opened talks with China in an effort to lure tens of billions of dollars in additional cash, giving China perhaps its biggest opportunity yet to exercise financial clout in the Western world.

Regional Issues

PRC Paper Warns of ‘Sounds of Cannons’ in Sea Dispute
(Reuters, Oct. 26, 2011) One of China’s most popular newspapers warned that nations involved in territorial disputes in the South China Sea should “mentally prepare for the sounds of cannons” if they remain at loggerheads with Beijing.

Security Official Backs Stronger Taiwan Presence in South China Sea (CNA, Oct. 26, 2011) Tsai De-sheng, director-general of the National Security Bureau, said at a legislative hearing that Taiwan should upgrade its defensive capabilities on Taiping Island, the largest of the disputed, and Pratas Island in the South China Sea.

Wary of China, Its Southern Neighbors Court India By Harsh V. Pant(YaleGlobal, Oct. 28, 2011) China’s rapid ascent, along with the flexing of its muscles, has worried neighbors. They chafe at becoming too dependent, and a loose, yet perceptible balancing coalition aimed at curbing China has emerged.