Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Dec. 4, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Note: To help readers keep track of the Obama administration's Pacific pivoting and this strategic re-orientation's impacts on East Asia's strategic environment, TSR has set up a new database page, named "America's Pacific Century." We put the link to this new database on TSR's homepage, as well as inside the "US Policy" database. Hope readers find this new database page helpful.

Clinton Visited Myanmar

Greeted Quietly, Clinton Arrives in Myanmar By Steven Lee Myers(New York Times, Dec. 1, 2011) An improved relationship with Myanmar could reshape American diplomacy in the region when the Obama administration is trying to shift its geopolitical focus toward Asia and the Pacific, in part to once again manage the dominance of China.

Dissident Leader in Myanmar Endorses U.S. Overtures
(New York Times, Dec. 3, 2011) Aung San Suu Kyi endorsed the new American engagement with Myanmar’s autocratic government and called on other countries, including China, to support Myanmar’s nascent efforts to build a freer, more open society and economy.

U.S. Motives in Myanmar Are on China’s Radar By Edward Wong(New York Times, Nov. 30, 2011) The visit by Myanmar’s top general has become a subject of conversation among scholars and journalists because it came just two days before Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is scheduled to visit Myanmar, the first appearance there by an American diplomat of that rank in 56 years.

US-China Rivalry Over Burma’s Hand Intrigues Media
(BBC, Dec. 2, 2011) Southeast Asian Commentators have been picking over the bones of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent visit to Burma, with some writers dubious about Washington’s motives for offering a hand to a pariah state.

America's Pacific Century--Assessment

The Australian Canary By Brad Glosserman(PacNet #67, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Nov. 21, 2011) Hugh White makes a clear and plain case for strategic reorientation. Governments and publics throughout the region are facing a new world and they must understand the choices they face.

Asia’s Month of Milestones By Gareth Evans(Strait Times, Nov. 28, 2011) While maintaining absolute solidarity on existential issues, America's Asian allies need to demonstrate that they have minds and interests of their own on international policymaking - not least to ensure that the US does not take them for granted.

Beijing’s Message to Asia: If You Can’t Join ‘Em, Beat ‘Em By Elizabeth C. Economy (Asia Unbound, Nov. 22, 2011) After watching the United States once again be voted most popular, the message from China seems to be twofold: first, the United States is not one of us; second, we have more money, so you should be friends with us instead (or, by the way, you’ll be sorry).

Beijing Adopts Multi-Pronged Approach to Parry Washington’s Challenge By Willy Lam (China Brief 11(22), Jamestown Foundation, Nov. 30, 2011) Relations between China and the United States have taken a confrontational turn in the wake of a series of initiatives taken by President Barack Obama in his recent trip to Hawaii and Asia.

China Sees ‘Cold War’ in U.S.’s Australia Plan By Brian Spegele(Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1, 2011) China's Ministry of National Defense criticized U.S. plans to establish a permanent military presence in Australia, accusing Washington of acting antagonistically in the region and perpetuating a Cold War mentality.

Cross-Strait Issues

Building a Foundation for Peace By Chang Teng-chi(Taipei Times, Nov. 30, 2011) I have yet to see a member of the KMT come clean and clarify what the conditions for peace are to be. The DPP, meanwhile, seems to be content to wait until after the election, making all the right noises to make sure the major powers feel satisfied that their concerns are unfounded.

U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement

Obama Invokes Cold-War Security Powers to Unmask Chinese Telecom Spyware (Bloomberg, Dec. 1, 2011) The U.S. is invoking Cold War-era national-security powers to force telecommunication companies including AT&T Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. to divulge confidential information about their networks in a hunt for Chinese cyber-spying.

US Academic Rejects ‘Ditch Taiwan’ Talk By Shih Hsiu-chuan(Taipei Times, Dec. 2, 2011) Dismissing a spate of arguments calling for a change in US policy on Taiwan, US academic Shelley Rigger said “we all have too much to lose” if the US withdrew its support for Taiwan, a move that would not benefit China, Taiwan or the US.

PLA and Military Balance

China’s First Aircraft Carrier Starts Second Trial
(AFP, Nov. 29, 2011) China's first aircraft carrier began its second sea trial on Tuesday after undergoing refurbishment and testing, the government said, amid heightened regional tensions over maritime territorial disputes.

Chinese Military Creates Strategic Planning Department By Peter Mattis (China Brief 11(22), Jamestown Foundation, Nov. 30, 2011) On November 22, Chinese President Hu Jintao and the Central Military Commission (CMC) issued a directive creating a “Strategic Planning Department”.

Survey Citing Youth’s Refusal to Flight Is a ‘Non-issue’: MND
(China Post, Nov. 30, 2011) The Ministry of National Defense reacted strongly over a recently released survey which shows that over 40 percent of students in secondary level said they would not defend the country if a war breaks out.

Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Electoin

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(UDN, Nov. 29, 2011) If respondents were to vote tomorrow, 41% would vote for KMT’s Ma-Wu ticket, 35% for DPP’s Tsai-Su ticket, and 10% for PFP’s Soong-Lin ticket.

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(TVBS, Dec. 2, 2011) If respondents were to vote tomorrow, 40% would vote for KMT’s Ma-Wu ticket, 34% for DPP’s Tsai-Su ticket, and 7% for PFP’s Soong-Lin ticket.

Latest Poll Gives Ma 8-percent Lead Over Tsai
(CNA, Dec. 3, 2011) The results suggest that Ma would garner 34 percent of the vote, Tsai 26 percent and PFP Chair James Soong 10 percent, said Peter Gries, director of University of Oklahoma's Institute for U.S.-China Issues that conducted the survey.

US Won’t Sell Out Taiwan to China: Ma
(China Post, Nov. 28, 2011) In an interview with Time magazine, President Ma Ying-jeou dismissed the recent New York Times op-ed proposal for the U.S. “ditch Taiwan” in exchange for debt-relieving favors from China, stressing that it was “not mainstream opinion.” TIME Meets Taiwan Presidential Hopefuls Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen

Candidates Outline Visions for Taiwan
(Taipei Times, Dec. 4, 2011) The three presidential contenders faced off in a televised debate, crossing swords on issues ranging from cross-strait policy, the economy and social justice to matters of livelihood and national development.

Tsai Stance Sparks Internet Discussions in China
(China Post, Dec. 4, 2011) An announcement by opposition DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen that if elected, she would set up an ad hoc task force to engage in dialogues — including political negotiations — with mainland China, has sparked heated discussions among mainland Chinese netizens.

In Dueling YouTube Videos, the Tale of Taiwan’s Election Stand-Off
(China Real Time Report, Dec. 2, 2011) As Taiwan enters the final phase of presidential elections, one of the big questions has been why current President Ma Ying-jeou, who has managed to reduce tensions with China and preside over a strong economic recovery from the 2008 downturn, has seen his early lead slip in recent weeks to challenger and DPP chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen.

Taiwan’s Voters Have the Upper Hand By Cain Nunns
(The Guardian, Nov. 29, 2011) Forget Christmas: if you're a Taiwanese activist, the best time to open your presents is during a close presidential election race likely to be won on the margins.

Dead Heat Election Raises Taiwan Stakes By Sreeram Chaulia(Asia Times, Dec. 3, 2011) given the sharp policy turnarounds engineered by Ma when he was elected in 2008, and the pressure from the grassroots faced by Tsai to re-assert Taiwanese sovereignty against a looming China, no foreign power is taking chances by just letting the domestic politics of Taiwan play out and throw up a winner.

Taiwan's Foreign Relations

Taiwan to Welcome High-ranking Obama Official on Thursday
(Taipei Times, Nov. 29, 2011) US Agency for International Development (USAID) administrator Rajiv Shah will visit Taipei, the highest-ranking US government official from US President Barack Obama’s administration to visit Taiwan, the AIT said.

Taiwan, United States Talk Counter-Piracy Cooperation
(CNA, Dec. 3, 2011) The U.S. delegation, composed of members of the U.S. Department of State and Department of Defense, was led by Donna Hopkins, coordinator of the Counter Piracy and Maritime Security in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.

US Wants Taiwan to Join in Aid Cooperation
(Taipei Times, Dec. 3, 2011) The US would like to engage in expanded and more effective cooperation with Taiwan in delivering humanitarian assistance, eliminating hunger and child malnutrition, and investing in healthcare to reduce infectious diseases.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

Children of the Revolution By Jeremy Page(Wall Street Journal, Nov. 26, 2011) China’s ‘princelings,’ the offspring of the communist party elite, are embracing the trappings of wealth and privilege—raising uncomfortable questions for their elders.

Poor Rural Villages Show China’s Economic Dilemma By Michael Bristow (BBC, Nov. 29, 2011) The debt problems in Europe have led many to hope that China will use its financial muscle to save the world. But China has its own pressing economic problems.

Will China Stumble? Don’t Bet on It By Steven Rattner(New York Times, Dec. 3, 2011) China’s economic success is colored by its opaque political system, repressive and riddled with corruption. But the unusual mix of authoritarianism and free enterprise should continue to work because of its ability to deliver rising incomes, satisfying a populace that appears more interested in economic advancement than in democracy.

China Leader Warns about Unrest Due to Economy
(AP, Dec. 3, 2011) The Chinese leadership's law-and-order czar is warning that China is ill-prepared for social unrest generated by changes in the economy, in the latest sign that the government is worried about the consequences of flagging growth.

Regional Issues

Can Asia Step Up to 21st Century Leadership? By Amitav Acharya(YaleGlobal, Dec. 1, 2011) “Asia’s role in global governance cannot be delinked from the question: Who leads Asia?” Acharya writes. A collective leadership, along the lines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, would complement Asia’s growing economic power.

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