Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Dec. 11, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

America's Pacific Century--Assessment

Burma in the US-China Great Game—Part I By David I. Steinberg(YaleGlobal, Dec. 5, 2011) Burma’s nationalistic armed forces seem intent on attempting to improve its image, while the Obama administration seeks to reaffirm US strategic interests in Southeast Asia. The long-term outlook may be uncertain, but after 50 long years, the relationship has been abruptly and amazingly transformed.

Burma in the US-China Great Game—Part II By Aung Zaw(YaleGlobal, Dec. 7, 2011) Chinese leaders recognize that a stable Burma benefits the region. China does not want to lose influence or access to Burma’s rich natural resources, and Burma’s generals insist on maintaining strong ties.

Chinese and US Defense Officials Meet in Beijing Following Friction Over Asia Basing Plans (AP, Dec. 7, 2011) The 12th round of U.S.-China Defense Consultative Talks are a barometer of relations between China’s People’s Liberation Army and the U.S. military that is repositioning itself in the Pacific.

US Tries to Reassure China on Military Ties with Australia
(Reuters, Dec. 9, 2011) The US has sought to reassure China that its expansion of military ties with Australia is not aimed at containing China, a US defense official said yesterday, a day after holding talks with the Chinese army.

Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election, Evolving Sino-U.S. Relations, and the Prospect of Taiwan’s Security By Dalton Lin (Ballots & Bullets, Dec. 5, 2011) Changes in the Sino-U.S. relationship create great uncertainty for the future of cross-strait relations and Taiwan’s security, and each party will have unique challenges in navigating these shifts.

Sino-U.S. Engagement

Debate: Sino-US Ties By Dennis V. Hickey and Jin Canrong(China Daily, Dec. 6, 2011) What does the future hold for relations between a fast rising China and a waning United States? Two experts give us different arguments but arrive at similar conclusions.

US Ambassador to China Calls on Beijing to Improve Its Human Rights Record (AP, Dec. 10, 2011) The U.S. ambassador to China urged Beijing to improve its human rights record, pointing to imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo as an example where China falls short.

PLA and Military Balance

China’s Spies Are Catching Up By David Wise(New York Times, Dec. 11, 2011) United States counterintelligence agencies have been slow to recognize: just as China has become a global economic power, it has developed a world-class espionage service — one that rivals the C.I.A.

NSB to Create National Intelligence Officers
(China Post, Dec. 10, 2011) An amendment to the Organic Act for National Security Bureau passed through the legislature, allows the country's top intelligence agency to establish a new “national intelligence officer” system in an effort to expand its overseas operational capabilities.

Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Electoin and Foreign Relations

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(Now News, Dec. 6, 2011) If respondents were to vote tomorrow, 39% would vote for KMT’s Ma-Wu ticket, 32.9% for DPP’s Tsai-Su ticket, and 7% for PFP’s Soong-Lin ticket.

What to Make of the Presidential Polls? By Jonathan Sullivan(Ballots & Bullets, Dec. 7, 2011) As anyone who knows a bit about Taiwanese politics will tell you, media polls should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Taiwan Presidential Debate: Shockingly Subdued By Aries Poon(China Real Time Report, Dec. 4, 2011) The first of three televised presidential debates in Taiwan on Saturday left audiences without many revelations, punch lines or memorable sound-bites.

Microbloggers in Mainland Praise Presidential Debate
(CNA, Dec. 5, 2011) A Chinese netizen said Sunday on his microblog that a rare sense of pride for Chinese people arose after watching Taiwan's televised presidential debate a day earlier.

China Frets As Taiwan President Faces Tough Reelection Bid By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Dec. 9, 2011) Already entangled in territorial disputes with neighbors and facing the announced return of the United States to the region, China’s strategic planners suddenly have a new and unexpected cause for alarm: uncertainty over the outcome of next month’s presidential election in Taiwan.

Taiwan's Foreign Relations

Taiwan Presses Forward By Eddie Walsh(The Diplomat, Dec. 7, 2011) Taiwan welcomes the strengthening of bi-lateral or multi-lateral alliances between the United States and East Asian democracies. In addition, Taiwan hopes that the United States will take the lead in pushing forward on various tri-lateral security mechanism dialogues in the form of “US-Taiwan+1” with either track one or track two format.

Highest US Official to Visit Taiwan in a Decade Announced
(Taipei Times, Dec. 8, 2011) US Deputy Secretary of Energy Daniel Poneman will arrive on a three-day visit to Taipei on Monday, the highest-ranking US government official to visit Taiwan since 2000, the AIT said.

Taiwan Nears US Visa Agreement
(Taipei Times, Dec. 10, 2011) Taiwan will soon become a candidate country to be given visa waiver privileges by the US as most of the necessary procedures have been completed, Taiwanese Representative to the US Jason Yuan said.

US Expert Urges Taiwan to Show Its Commitment By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Dec. 10, 2011) A specialist on Asian security told a conference in Washington that the future of US-Taiwan relations was now in Taipei’s court and that “critical challenges” needed to be faced.

Envoy to Meet St Lucian Prime Minister: Ministry
(Taipei Times, Dec. 7, 2011) Taiwan’s envoy to Saint Lucia will meet the Caribbean country’s new prime minister within the next two days to solidify bilateral ties, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

Power in Numbers: China Aims for High-Tech Primacy By David Barboza and John Markoff (New York Times, Dec. 6, 2011) If the future of the Internet is already in China, is the future of computing there as well? Many experts in the United States say it could very well be.

Hu Says China to Focus on Expanding Imports
(AP, Dec. 11, 2011) Chinese President Hu Jintao said that China doesn't intentionally pursue a large trade surplus and it will focus on expanding imports in the coming years.

Alarmed by Independent Candidates, Chinese Authorities Crack Down By Sharon LaFraniere (New York Times, Dec. 5, 2011) A final assessment is still months away. But Li Fan, an election expert who has been monitoring the elections around the country, said the votes were more rigged than ever.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

Chinese General Heads to India After Dalai Lama Spat Underlines Tensions (Bloomberg, Dec. 6, 2011) General Ma Xiaotian, the deputy chief of the People’s Liberation Army General Staff, will lead a delegation to New Delhi for meetings Dec. 9 with Indian Defense Secretary Shashikant Sharma and ministry officials.

Military Buildup in S. China Sea Amid Tension
(Jakarta Post, Dec. 8, 2011) Several countries with overlapping claims in the South China Sea are reportedly building up their military powers in the territory — a move that may endanger regional security and stability.

China and Neighbors Begin Joint Mekong River Patrols
(New York Times, Dec. 11, 2011) Chinese border guards began joint patrols Saturday on the Mekong River with counterparts from Laos, Myanmar and Thailand. The effort is a significant step by China toward playing a larger role in regional security.

Japan Poll Finds Record Good Will for U.S.
(New York Times, Dec. 5, 2011) Only 16 percent of respondents reported not having a friendly attitude toward the United States, the lowest such result ever, while 71 percent of respondents said they did not feel friendly toward China.

Noda’s China Trip Postponed on Eve of Visit
(China Real Time Report, Dec. 7, 2011) Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s first trip to China has been postponed at the last minute at the request of the host country.