Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Monday, 21 May 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (May 20, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
Bo Xilai's Ouster and China's Leadership Succession
Scandal Not Affecting China’s Political Calendar By Ian Johnson(New York Times, May 15, 2012) Despite a spectacular political scandal and swirling rumors of high-level infighting, signs are that China’s once-in-a-decade leadership change is still on track for this autumn, according to party insiders and observers.
16 Retired Chinese Communist Party Officials Call for 2 Top Leaders to Step Down (New York Times, May 17, 2012) In a rare sign of open opposition against two of China’s most powerful leaders, a group of retired Communist Party members have called for the resignation of the country’s security boss, Zhou Yongkang, and a top propaganda official, Liu Yunshan.
China Security Chief Seems to Keep His Hold on Power
(New York Times, May 20, 0212) The Chinese security chief, Zhou Yongkang, completed a prominent tour of the volatile region of Xinjiang last week, a sign that he still had a firm hold on his post and wielded power despite the fact that he had opposed the purging of Bo Xilai.
Bo’s Ties to Army Alarmed Beijing By Jeremy Page and Lingling Wei (Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2012) Bo Xilai's ties to the military and his irregular use of his police forces are now key elements of the investigation at the heart of China's worst political crisis in more than two decades.
China’s Wobbly Transition By David Ignatius(Washington Post, May 19, 2012) Across China, there is said to be uncertainty as officials try to understand what’s happening and to protect themselves.
Sino-Philippine Standoff in South China Sea
China and Philippines Play the Green Card in Sea Dispute By James Hookway (Southeast Asia Real Time, May 15, 2012) The removal of the fishing nets is interpreted in some quarters as a novel means of de-escalating a tense standoff at Scarborough Shoal. With fish off-limits because of the ban, there is no reason for vessels to congregate in the area and both sides could withdraw without losing face.
China Dispute Threatens Philippine Industries By Josephine Cuneta and James Hookway (Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2012) The Philippines' dispute with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea is threatening to exact an economic toll on key Philippine industries, including its vital tourism and agricultural sectors.
Philippines Stops Protester’s Trip to Disputed Island
(AFP, May 19, 2012) Philippine President Benigno Aquino III told protesters to abort plans to sail to a disputed South China Sea shoal also claimed by China and Taiwan.
China, the Philippines and the US Security Guarantee By Donald E. Weatherbee (PacNet #28, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Apr. 26, 2012) The Mutual Defense Treaty is not in fact self-explanatory, nor is there a guarantee that the US would automatically come to the direct military support of Filipino forces in an armed engagement with the Chinese in the South China Sea zone.
Why Philippines Stands Up to China By James R. Holmes(The Diplomat, May 14, 2012) There’s some precedent for Philippine leaders to hope for diplomatic success at Scarborough Shoal. The Philippine military is a trivial force with little chance of winning a steel-on-steel fight. But like lesser powers of the past, Manila can appeal to law, to justice, and to powerful outsiders capable of tilting the balance its way.
Taiwan Threatened by the Potential FTA between China, Japan and South Korea
Asia Powers Agree on Free-Trade Negotiation
(Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2012) The leaders of China, Japan and South Korea agreed to begin free-trade negotiations this year, opening the possibility of an agreement that could rival the world's largest free-trade zones in size, although it is likely to be far less comprehensive or rigorous.
Taiwan Should Speed Up Trade Talks amid New FTA Threat: Minister (CNA, May 14, 2012) Taiwan should speed up the progress of talks with its major trade partners, as China, Japan and South Korea have decided to launch talks on a proposed free trade bloc, Economics Minister Shih Yen-shiang said.
Ma Alert to Possible Impact of 3-State FTA
(CNA, May 15, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou is alert to the fact that China, Japan and South Korea are about to begin free-trade talks and has instructed the Cabinet to move quickly to prevent Taiwan from being marginalized in global trade.
Ma Vows to Resolve Beef Issue
(Taipei Times, May 16, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou promised to resolve the issue surrounding US beef imports and expressed hope that Taiwan-US trade talks under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement platform would resume soon.
Taiwan Has Little Time to Tackle New FTA Threat: Scholars
(CNA, May 16, 2012) Taiwan is facing a major economic threat and needs to speed up trade talks with its major trade partners to shield itself from a proposed free trade bloc comprising China, Japan and South Korea, scholars said.
Ma Warns That Taiwan Can’t Afford Absence from New Free-Trade Zone (China Post, May 17, 2012) Ma said he hopes Japan will seriously and positively consider inking a bilateral FTA with Taiwan. Circumstances are ripe at present: bilateral relations are the best they've been in 40 years, while Taiwan-Japan trade is thriving.
Ma Vows Trade Liberalization in Second Term
(China Post, May 18, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou vowed to further enhance Taiwan's trade liberalization in the upcoming four years by signing various international trade pacts.
McCain: US Should Seek Trade Pacts with Taiwan, India, Suspend All Myanmar Economic Sanctions (AP, May 14, 2012) Republican Sen. John McCain called for the Obama administration to ramp up its free trade agenda in Asia and suspend U.S. economic sanctions on Myanmar, although retain an arms embargo.
Cross-Strait Issues
Beijing’s Taiwan Policy Still Focuses on Trade: MAC Report
(CNA, May 16, 2012) China's policy on Taiwan will continue to focus mainly on trade and economic exchanges this year while stressing stability at home and energy partnerships with other countries abroad, according to a report on China by the Mainland Affairs Council.
Former AIT Head Expects Taiwan-China Ties to Slow
(Taipei Times, May 16, 2012) Richard Bush said he believed the current momentum in Taiwan-China relations would “slow down” during President Ma Ying-jeou’s second term.
Tsai Accuses President Ma of Heavy-handed Rule
(Taipei Times, May 15, 2012) Tsai said she had three questions for Ma on cross-strait relations: “Is Taiwan a nation? Are Taiwan and China the same nation? And is ‘one country, two areas’ a core principle for future cross-strait policy?”
Macau Representative Office in Taiwan Opens
(CNA, May 14, 2012) Macau formally opened a representative office in Taipei, giving the special administrative region a greater presence in Taiwan that it expects will deepen trade, tourism, cultural and education ties with Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Democracy Will Influence China: US Academic By William Lowther (Taipei Times, May 16, 2012) Larry Diamond said that Chinese tourist visits to the pluralistic society of Taiwan would be one of the most subversive factors driving change in China.
U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement
A Thought on American Foreign Policy in East Asia By Kang Choi(PacNet #30, Pacific Forum, CSIS, May 15, 2012) The US and its allies/partners have not discussed fundamental issues, namely, the desirable end state or regional architecture in the region.
Stop Ignoring Taiwan By Karl Eikenberry(Foreign Policy, May 17, 2012) America's relationship with Taiwan, an important component of the United States' China and Asia-Pacific strategy, needs a tune-up and perhaps some part replacements in the areas of security, trade, and diplomacy.
Welcome to the New World Disorder By Ian Bremmer(Foreign Policy, May 14, 2012) The answers to two crucial questions will define the post-G-Zero balance of power. First, will the problems generated by the leadership vacuum force the United States and China to act as partners, or will those problems push them toward confrontation? Second, will China and the United States dominate geopolitics, or will global power instead be broadly divided among several established and emerging states?
Diplomats and Dissidents By Bill Keller(New York Times, May 14, 2012) The case of the blind Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng is a good occasion to contemplate the perennial tension between our respect for human rights and our need to deal with undemocratic regimes.
Dissident from China Arrives in U.S., Ending an Ordeal By Thomas Kaplan, Andrew Jacobs and Steven Lee Myers (New York Times, May 20, 2012) The State Department praised the Chinese government in a statement that reflected the United States’ handling of the case from the start: understated and nonconfrontational, despite the emotions and high stakes involved for both countries.
PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales
Pentagon Study Says China Military Getting Stronger
(New York Times, May 19, 2012) China is pressing a long-range modernization of its military, part of a strategy aimed at maximizing its leverage over Taiwan, extending its influence farther abroad, but avoiding conflict around its borders or with the United States, the Pentagon said in an annual report to Congress. Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2012
Taiwan ‘Focus’ of Chinese Military Modernization By William Lowther (Taipei Times, May 20, 2012) The report said that Beijing appeared prepared to defer the use of force as long as it believed unification remained possible and the costs of conflict outweighed the benefits. Meanwhile, the cross-Strait military balance continued to trend in Beijing’s favor.
Is China about to Get Its Military Jet Engine Program off the Ground? By Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson (China Real Time Report, May 14, 2012) China’s high-performance jet engine programs are nearing takeoff but they, and China’s development of a more competitive precision manufacturing sector, appear to still have some additional runway ahead of them.
Supersonic Missile Key to Defense: Lawmaker
(CNA, May 17, 2012) Taiwan's locally developed supersonic anti-ship missile enhances the country's defense capabilities in the face of China's ongoing military expansion, a lawmaker said.
US Votes to Sell Taiwan 66 New Fighter Jets
(AFP, May 19, 2012) The House of Representatives voted to require the United States to sell 66 new fighter-jets to Taiwan, with lawmakers saying the deal would close a growing military gap with China.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Ma Vows Change As Approval Falls to 23%
(China Post, May 19, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou repeatedly promised to improve his governance as his popularity hit new lows and opposition lawmakers sought to recall him.
Ma Admits to Failures As Thousands Take to Streets
(China Post, May 20, 2012) The increasingly unpopular President Ma Ying-jeou summed up four major failures over his past four years in office, as thousands of people took to the streets in Taipei protesting some of the government's recent controversial moves.
Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou Signals No Change on China Policy As 2nd Term Begin (AP, May 20, 2012) Taiwan’s president began his second term and signaled he will maintain a China policy that has reduced tensions between the sides, offering Beijing little early hope of realizing its long-term goal of unification. Upholding Ideals, Working Together for Reform and Creating Greater Well-being for Taiwan (President Ma Ying-jeou’s Inaugural Address, May 20, 2012)
Taiwan’s President Set to Start 2nd Term under China’s Shadow, but with Improved Economic Ties (AP, May 18, 2012) China’s incessant effort to draw the democratic island closer politically has been on the back burner, and as Ma’s second term begins, the question is whether he can keep it there.
Taiwan President Offers Cloudy Second-Term Vision By Jenny W. Hsu and Aries Poon (China Real Time Report, May 20, 2012) Those hoping Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou’s second inaugural address and the press conference that followed would offer a clear blueprint—whether on relations with Beijing and or growing domestic discontent—came away disappointed.
Tsai Says She Might Be an ‘Option’ for 2016
(Taipei Times, May 14, 2012) Former Democratic Progressive Party chairperson Tsai Ing-wen revealed her interest in running for the presidency again in 2016 for the first time since losing in January’s presidential election.
US Questions WHO’s Name for Taiwan
(Taipei Times, May 18, 2012) The US Department of State has expressed concern about the WHO’s apparent lack of transparency in deciding Taiwan’s designation in the world health body.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
Western Views of China Increasingly Positive
(China Daily, May 18, 2012) An increasing number of people in Western countries view China's influence in a favorable light, according to a BBC World Service poll.
Regional Issues and Japan Policy
Chinese Anger at US Base in Australia By Malcolm Moore(Telegraph, May 16, 2012) China has criticized a new permanent American military base in Australia, accusing the two countries of having a “Cold War mentality.”
China Pushes North Korea to Drop Nuclear Test Plan: Sources By Benjamin Kang Lim (Reuters, May 17, 2012) If North Korea goes ahead with the test, China would consider taking some retaliatory steps, but they would not be substantive, a source with ties to Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters.
The US and Japan Make a Good Step Forward, for Now By Yuki Tatsumi (PacNet #29, Pacific Forum, CSIS, May 3, 2012) The Security Consultative Committee Joint Statement sets the alliance on the right path. While this is positive development, both governments need to be realistic about future challenges.
China and Japan Fall Out Over Uighurs
(Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2012) Signs of tension are returning to relations between Japan and China, casting shadows over accelerating efforts between the two East Asian powers to strengthen their economic ties.
Put Sea Disputes ‘Under Control’
(China Daily, May 17, 2012) China and Japan vowed to further put maritime incidents and disputes in the East China Sea “under control”, as both sides are committed to boosting maritime cooperation.
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Regards,
Dalton LinEditor, Taiwan Security Research
E-mail: daltonlin@ntu.edu.tw, Taiwan Security Research: taiwansecurity.org
Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 01:25