Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Monday, 28 May 2012

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (May 27, 2012)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Bo Xilai's Ouster and China's Leadership Succession

In China, Fear at the Top By Roderick MacFarquhar(New York Times, May 21, 2012) Why has ownership of wealth become so important for the Chinese elite? And why have so many Chinese leaders sent their children abroad for education? One answer surely is that they lack confidence about

China

’s future.

China Leadership Rules Bo Case Isolated, Limited Purge: Sources By Benjamin Kang Lim (Reuters, May 25, 2012) Hu urged the party to close ranks at a meeting of about 200 officials early this month at a Beijing hotel, declaring the downfall of Bo - China's biggest political scandal in two decades - to be an "isolated case", the three sources said.

Wang Yang: The Future Torchbearer of Reform? By Willy Lam(China Brief 12(11), Jamestown Foundation, May 25, 2012) A keen concern of those interested in the future of reform not only in Guangdong but nationwide is the extent to which Wang can persevere with his taboo-smashing crusade after his expected promotion to the PBSC at the 18th Party Congress.

Sino-Philippine Standoff in South China Sea

Taiwan Threatened by the Potential FTA between China, Japan and South Korea

Ma Pushes for Trade Liberalization
(Taipei Times, May 24, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou called for public support for the nation’s participation in global trade liberalization, and promised to prepare necessary measures to protect local industries.

Lee Offers Up Prescription for Taiwan
(Taipei Times, May 25, 2012) Loosening currency exchange rate controls, reducing dependence on

China

and privatizing state companies were some of the items on former president Lee Teng-hui’s prescription list to help the nation’s ailing economy, which he discussed in recent interviews with the media.

Resolution of US Beef Issue Needed for TIFA Talks: Ma
(CNA, May 22, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou said that Taiwan has to resolve the issues of U.S. beef imports to remove the technical obstacles to a resumption of Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) talks between Taiwan and the

United States

Free Trade Relies on Equal Partners By Tung Chen-yuan(Taipei Times, May 22, 2012) Apart from actively pushing for a multilateral international free-trade system and a unilateral liberalization of Taiwan’s economic system, the nation should concentrate its resources on simultaneous completion of free-trade talks with China and the

Ma's Inauguration Speech and Cross-Strait Issues

Ma Speech Focuses on Economic Growth
(Taipei Times, May 21, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou pledged to strengthen economic growth in pursuit of social justice in the next four years as he was inaugurated for a second term, while reiterating his promise of maintaining cross-strait peace and avoiding discussing the possibility of cross-strait political talks.

Taiwan’s Ma Plays It Cool By Jens Kastner(Asia Times, May 21, 2012) Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou was widely expected to embed a formula for unification with

China

into his re-inauguration speech on Sunday. Perhaps the embattled leader, whose approval ratings have fallen to as low as 20%, wanted to do so. However, he also had to toe the line with Washington.

Taiwan President Says Peace Deal with China Not a Top Priority By Ralph Jennings (Christian Science Monitor, May 21, 2012) Taiwan’s president said that signing a peace accord with old foe China would be shelved for lack of popular support, as the island looks to economic and trade deals to keep improving ties between the two sides that once braced for war.

Mainland’s Trust Broken by Inauguration Speech: Source
(China Post, May 25, 2012) Mainland

China

feels like it has been tricked by the Taiwanese government, a top national security official claimed.

Ma Struggles When Talking Straits By Tung Chen-yuan(Taipei Times, May 26, 2012) Looking to future developments in cross-strait relations, we can expect the framework for cross-strait interaction and economic and trade talks to be maintained, but the pace of negotiation and exchange may slow down.

US Supports Cross-Strait Détente: Official
(CNA, May 25, 2012) The United States welcomes a warming of cross-Taiwan Strait ties and will support President Ma Ying-jeou's continued efforts to advance relations with

China

in his second term, a White House official said.

U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

5 Things the Pentagon Isn’t Telling Us about the Chinese Military By Trefor Moss (Foreign Policy, May 23, 2012) For many crucial aspects of China's strategy, the Pentagon seems like it's just guessing. Here are the five most important questions about Beijing's defense strategy that remain stubbornly unanswered.

Report Claims Chinese Airstrip Near Disputed Islands Near Completion (China Post, May 27, 2012) Attack warplanes and land-to-air missiles are being deployed to a Chinese air base with an operational radius reaching both Taipei and the disputed islands in the East China Sea as tension in the region continues to mount, a report said.

Taiwan Air Force Faces Plane Shortage by 2020
(Taipei Times, May 26, 2012) A US congressional report released this week makes it clear that, without the acquisition of new aircraft, the Taiwanese air force risks being a shadow of itself by 2020 and incapable of meeting the challenge it faces in the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Regional Issues

China Blames Pyongyang for Holding Fishermen By Brian Spegele(Wall Street Journal, May 21, 2012) China's state media said that

North Korea

's government was behind the detention of a group of 28 Chinese fishermen released on Sunday, in a rare case of publicly strained diplomatic relations between the neighbors and allies.

China, North Korea Ties Hit Rough Weather By Alexa Olesen(AP, May 24, 2012) China's leadership is hitting a rough patch with ally North Korea under its new leader Kim Jong Un, as Beijing finds itself wrong-footed in episodes including Pyongyang's rocket launch and the murky detention of Chinese fishing boats.

The Illogic of China’s North Korea Policy By Ralph A Cossa and Brad Glosserman (PacNet #32, Pacific Forum, CSIS, May 17, 2012) It would be hard to create a policy toward North Korea that does more damage to Chinese national interests than Beijing’s current approach toward Pyongyang. Response to PacNet #32

NSB Chief Dismisses South China Sea Bluster As ‘Bluff’
(Taipei Times, May 22, 2012) National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Der-sheng dismissed rising tensions in the South China Sea as “acts of bluffing” on the part of some countries that claim part or all of the territory in the area.